Sleepers, Sleepers and More Sleepers
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- Potential Comeback Player of the Year
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- Sleeper Alert!
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- Don’t sleep on Earl
Posted: September 2, 2009
Every year, our infatuation with the unknown drives us to a draft day reach or late-round flier we hope will make us look like fantasy geniuses. Which third-year wideout will step it up? Who’s the next DeAngelo Williams? Who’s the next Matt Cassel?
The best way to “scientifically” determine a sleeper is by cross-referencing research with preseason numbers, cross-checking it with team situation (depth chart, injuries, teammate abilities…) and then considering past success and/or expectations. Realistically, all I can tell you is: preseason success alone does NOT guarantee success for the season to come. For every DeAngelo Williams (2008 preseason: 188 rush yards, 3 TD; 2008 regular season: 1518 yards, 18 TD), there’s a Robert Meachem (2008 preseason: 217 rec. yards, 1 TD; 2008 regular season: 289 yards, 3 TD).
The following are solid bets for the 2009 class of sleepers. And no, Troy Williamson (232 receiving yards, 1 TD through 3 preseason games) will not be mentioned.
SLEEPERS:
QUARTERBACK
- Matt Hasselbeck (Sea) 3,200 YD, 18 TD, 14 INT, 2 300+ YD Gm
Injuries are an issue. A questionable O-line and running game don’t help, but a healthy group of receivers, and the addition of T.J. Houshmandzadeh to complement solid second-year TE John Carlson, spell potential comeback player of the year honors.
- Mark Sanchez (NYJ) 2,900 YD, 14 TD, 12 INT, 1 300+ YD Gm
Can another highly touted rookie step right in and make an impact, ala Matt Ryan? You bet. He’s won the starting gig, has had a fine preseason and the Jets will be a run first offense, putting Sanchez in a position to succeed.
RUNNING BACK
- LaDainian Tomlinson (SD) 1,150 YD, 12 TD, 3 100+ YD Gm, 400 Rec YD, 1 Rec TD
Consider this: He was dinged up last year and still managed 1,110 YD, 11 TD and 426 Rec YD. Sproles will spell him, but LT2 is the every down back, looking at 300+ carries. Don’t worry about 30. Look what Thomas Jones did last year at 30: 1312 YD, 13 TD.
- Darren McFadden (Oak) 1,050 YD, 7 TD, 3 100+ YD Gm, 400 Rec YD, 2 TD
Michael Bush, Justin Fargas, a bad O-line and unproven QB cloud the situation, but he will burst out of the pack as the best overall talent on the team. 4.4 YD/carry in 2008. Give him 200+ carries, and he’s dangerous. Plus, he’s an excellent receiver.
- Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG) 800 YD, 4 TD, 2 100+ YD Gm, 300 Rec YD, 2 Rec TD
Bradshaw is taking the role vacated by Derrick Ward and running with it. Fast. Danny Ware will get some time, and Brandon Jacobs is the goal-line guy, but Bradshaw is poised for a huge year for the best running team in football.
WIDE RECEIVER
- Josh Morgan (SF) 800 YD, 5 TD, 2 100+ YD Gm
He’s a trendy late-round breakout pick, but his situation doesn’t lend itself to definite success. Shaun Hill, the named starter at QB, has looked dismal in the preseason.
- Steve Smith (NYG) 850 YD, 4 TD, 2 100+ YD Gm
The Giants murky receiver situation has been played up by the media and downplayed by the organization. Smith, entering his 3rd season, is going to start, and he’s going to be Eli Manning’s security blanket. 1,000 yards is a real possibility.
TIGHT END
- Greg Olson (Chi) 750 YD, 6 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm
He is the trendy pick for the season, but rightfully so. Cutler is a true #1 fantasy QB, and Olson will be a major beneficiary.
KICKER
Elam is having a perfect preseason, and will be kicking for a good offense in a controlled setting (the Georgia Dome).
DEFENSE
Shawne Merriman is back, and the unit that was one of the league’s best just a couple seasons ago should be in the top 10, and could be in the top 5.
DEEP SLEEPERS:
QUARTERBACK
- Brady Quinn (Cle) 2,900 YD, 16 TD, 12 INT, 2 300+ YD Gm
Entrenched in a battle for the starting job with Derek Anderson, Quinn is posting solid numbers in the preseason. The new regime will pick its man soon – they have to, right? If Quinn is the guy, he could be poised for a solid year.
RUNNING BACK
- Laurence Maroney (NE) 700 YD, 5 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm, 150 Rec YD, 1 Rec TD
There’s a reason the Patriots took Maroney with their top pick in 2006. He has talent. An ambiguous injury and a muddled backfield situation make him a risky pick, but he has the highest upside of all New England backs, assuming his health and opportunity.
- Bernard Scott (Cin) 600 YD, 3 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm, 100 Rec YD, 0 Rec TD
At some point in 2009, he’ll get a chance to show his ability. Cedric Benson is the only “talented” runner in front of him. The Bengals need someone to step up. Why not Scott?
WIDE RECEIVER
- Earl Bennett (Chi) 800 YD, 4 TD, 2 100+ YD Gm
Bennett has been handed a starting receiver position, opposite Devin Hester, and he hasn’t disappointed. His comfort level with Jay Cutler, having played with him in college, is readily apparent. He’s poised for a breakout year.
- Chris Henry (Cin) 700 YD, 4 TD, 2 100+ YD Gm
It’s amazing what a contract year can do for a guy. Assuming he can stay healthy and out of trouble, Henry has a lot to play for. Laveranues Coles and Chad Ochocinco are 1 – 2 respectively, but Henry has potential to be as good a 3 as there is in the league.
TIGHT END
- Brent Celek (Phi) 550 YD, 4 TD, 0 100+ YD Gm
Celek could work his way into being an every week starter for fantasy teams by mid-season. He will start in Philly from day 1, and this could be a breakout year.
KICKER
No Jay Cutler, questions surrounding Brandon Marshall, but there are still weapons, and Prater should be more consistent in 2009.
DEFENSE
Albert Haynesworth is a BIG addition. He helped make Tennessee a top five D last year. He will help the ‘Skins flirt with the top 10 in 2009.
IF THE STARS ALIGN:
QUARTERBACK
- Matt Leinart (Ari) 800 YD, 3 TD, 1 INT, 1 300+ YD Gm
Kurt Warner is THE starter in the most dynamic passing attack in football. However, Leinert has looked good this preseason, and were the incumbent to go down, he is an immediate must add. Handcuff him from day 1, if you have the roster space.
RUNNING BACK
- James Davis (Cle) 450 YD, 3 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm, 100 Rec YD, 0 Rec TD
Eric Mangini claimed Jerome Harrison would have a bigger role in the offense in 2009, and then Harrison missed most of preseason due to injury. In steps the rookie, Davis, to become one of the top late-round choices in the fantasy world. Given an opportunity, Davis could showcase himself as the Steve Slaton of 2009.
- Glen Coffee (SF) 400 YD, 2 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm, 75 Rec YD, 0 Rec TD
Like Davis, fellow rookie Coffee has emerged as an exciting late-round option for 2009. Frank Gore is solidified as the starter, but Coffee will spell him. If Gore were to go down, Coffee would step in, and he would excel.
WIDE RECEIVER
- Hakeem Nicks (NYG) 700 YD, 5 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm
Over the past couple weeks, Nicks has shown why the Giants took him with their top pick. Some questions remain, but he has the skills, and the Giants need someone to step up. If he gets his shot, Nicks will obliterate these projections.
- Robert Meachem (NO) 700 YD, 5 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm
“What!? You hypocrite!” I know. I give the guy a bum rap in the opening and then put him in the mix. But look at his situation: he’s going into his 3rd year, has the best fantasy QB going (sorry Brady and Peyton), and he’s having a good preseason. IF he unseats Devery Henderson, and IF he can take his solid play to the regular season, this is the year.
TIGHT END
- Martellus Bennett (Dal) 400 YD, 4 TD, 0 100+ YD Gm
Jason Witten will be Romo’s top target, but with the departure of T.O., the receiving corp is questionable. Bennett could benefit. If something happens to Witten, he will start.
KICKER
Matt Stover was let go, and Graham Gano was brought in, but Hauschka looks like he may win the job out of camp. If he does, he could be a good bye-week pickup.
DEFENSE
The D-line and linebackers are solid, the secondary is still a bit like Swiss cheese, but this unit could surprise.
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