Fantasy Sports Shack

Impact Rookies

Posted: September 3, 2009

It’s commonly known that every year a handful of rookies explode onto the scene to become fantasy stars.  Traditionally, it’s the rookie running back who climbs to the top of the rubble, but occasionally, a receiver, tight end or quarterback makes his name known.

Let’s look at last year’s success stories with an average 2009 ADP in the top 100 (per Yahoo!):

Matt Forte (Chi) RB   ADP: 5.3
Chris Johnson (Ten) RB   ADP: 15.3
Steve Slaton (Hou) RB   ADP: 17.6
Kevin Smith (Det) RB   ADP: 56
Eddie Royal (Den) WR   ADP: 66.1
DeSean Jackson (Phi) WR   ADP: 72.7
Matt Ryan (Atl) QB   ADP: 79.4
Jonathan Stewart (Car) RB   ADP: 85.3

Finding the cream of the rookie crop is the single most exciting thing in fantasy sports; even more rewarding than guessing right on a twelfth round sleeper who turns into a Pro-Bowler.  Okay, maybe that’s stretching it, but the truth is, a rookie can put your team over the top and help win your league.  But we wary: a rookie is an unknown commodity.  Not everyone is Adrian Peterson or Matt Forte.  Just ask 2008 Darren McFadden owners, or Rashard Mendenhall owners, or Felix Jones owners…  You get the picture.

So which rookies are worth the risk in 2009? Here’s how they stack up:

Running Backs

• Knowshon Moreno (Den) 1,100 YD, 8 TD, 4 100+ YD Gm, 300 Rec YD, 2 Rec TD

The knee injury and resulting lack of preseason time are a concern, but Moreno is the most all-around back in the 2009 class and Denver’s clear-cut top option, if healthy.

• Beanie Wells (Ari) 950 YD, 10 TD, 3 100+ YD Gm, 75 Rec YD, 0 Rec TD

Injuries are a concern, and his lack of receiving ability is an issue, but he is a beast and is easily the best runner on the Cardinals.

• Donald Brown (Ind) 800 YD, 6 TD, 2 100+ YD Gm, 250 Rec YD, 2 Rec TD

Locked in a time-share with Joseph Addai, Brown has the skill-set to excel and potentially wind up the lead back by season’s end.  Watch out if Addai gets hurt.

• LeSean McCoy (Phi) 600 YD, 2 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm, 250 Rec YD, 2 Rec TD

Brian Westbrook is the starter, but McCoy will get significant touches and be a star if Westbrook goes down.

• Bernard Scott (Cin) 600 YD, 3 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm, 100 Rec YD, 0 Rec TD

Scott has the skills and has had a decent preseason.  Cedric Benson is the only thing standing between him and a chance to shine.  When Benson falters, Scott is the add.

• James Davis (Cle) 450 YD, 3 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm, 100 Rec YD, 0 Rec TD

Davis has proven his potential in the preseason, and if he’s given a legit chance, ahead of Harrison, to succeed Jamal Lewis – who will, inevitably fall off a cliff – he will flourish, and could put up BIG numbers.

• Glen Coffee (SF) 400 YD, 2 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm, 75 Rec YD, 0 Rec TD

Coffee may have done his best running in the preseason, as Frank Gore is the man in San Francisco.  If Gore gets dinged up, Coffee will hit the ground running.

• Shonn Greene (NYJ) 350 YD, 4 TD, 0 100+ YD Gm, 50 Rec YD, 0 Rec TD

Sit back and wait.  Thomas Jones and Leon Washington are the Jets’ top options, and the preseason rib injury might linger, but Greene is a nice complement who should see an increased workload as the season progresses.

• Rashad Jennings (Jac) 300 YD, 2 TD, 0 100+ YD Gm, 50 Rec YD, 0 Rec TD

Not enough preseason work to judge by, and Maurice Jones-Drew is a top 5 fantasy option.  The only way Jennings gets a serious look is if MJD blows a tire.

Wide Receivers

• Percy Harvin (Min) 850 YD, 4 TD, 2 100+ YD Gm

Inconsistent in the preseason, but the Vikings are finding ways to get him the ball.

• Hakeem Nicks (NYG) 700 YD, 5 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm

Solid preseason could vault him into more playing time, which would mean he exceeds these mild expectations.

• Jeremy Maclin (Phi) 750 YD, 3 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm

The offense is deep, but he’s too talented not to succeed.  Solid preseason will translate.

• Brian Robiskie (Cle) 600 YD, 3 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm

Like his quarterbacks, he’s battling for playing time.

• Kenny Britt (Ten) 550 YD, 2 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm

While Nate Washington recovers, he’ll start opposite Justin Gage in one of the weakest passing offenses in football.

• Darrius Heyward-Bey (Oak) 500 YD, 2 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm

The Raiders will force-feed the top receiver selected in the 2009 NFL draft, and then scratch their heads and wonder why they picked him.

• Michael Crabtree (SF) Will not play.

Talk about a wasted pick.  Crabtree could have been a candidate for top rookie receiver honors, but he’ll likely sit out the season.  Even if he does sign, he won’t be a factor.

Quarterbacks

• Mark Sanchez (NYJ) 2,900 YD, 14 TD, 12 INT, 1 300+ YD Gm

Sanchez has been handed the keys to the Jets’ franchise, and will be given every opportunity to succeed.  Expect Joe Flacco numbers, not Matt Ryan.  Slight bump up if they manage to acquire Brandon Marshall.

• Matthew Stafford (Det) 2,100 YD, 9 TD, 13 INT, 1 300+ YD Gm

Uneven preseason, but if Culpepper’s odd injury thrusts April’s top pick into a starting role, he has a few weapons at his disposal.  Regardless, he should be starting by midseason.  Avoid him, if at all possible.

Tight Ends

• Brandon Pettigrew (Det) 350 YD, 2 TD

The best bet of the rookie tight ends to make his mark, but unlikely to make a fantasy difference in ’09.

September 3, 2009 - Posted by joshf28 | Impact Rookies | 2009 nfl draft, 49ers, ADP, adrian peterson, AP, arizona cardinals, Beanie Wells, Bernard Scott, Brandon Marshall, brandon pettigrew, brian robiskie, brian westbrook, Cedric Benson, chris johnson, Chris Wells, darr, Darren McFadden, Darrius Heyward-Bey, daunte culpepper, denver broncos, desean jackson, donald brown, eddie royal, fantasy sleepers, felix jones, Frank Gore, Glen Coffee, Hakeem Nicks, jamal lewis, James Davis, jeremy maclin, Jerome Harrison, Jets, joe flacco, jonathan stewart, joseph addai, justin gage, kenny britt, kevin smith, knowshon moreno, leon washington, lesean mccoy, Mark Sanchez, matt forte, Matt Ryan, matthew stafford, maurice jones drew, michael crabtree, minnesota vikings, MJD, nate washington, new york jets, nfl draft, oakland raiders, Percy Harvin, Quarterback, Raiders, rashad jennings, rashard mendenhall, rookie, rookie quarterbacks, rookie running backs, rookie wide receivers, rookies, rookies worth the risk, Running Back, running backs, san francisco 49ers, shonn greene, Steve Slaton, Thomas Jones, top fantasy rookies, top fantasy sleepers, top nfl rookies, top sleeper 2009, Vikings, Wide Receiver