Fantasy Sports Shack

Posted: December 10, 2009

It’s playoff time, and at no other point in the season is finding that diamond in the rough more important.  Thus, we’re gonna change it up a bit from here on.  Rather than give you two or three guys at a position who could help you get to the next round, I’m going to be spotlighting a few players, regardless of position, who are high-end Sleepers based on match-ups and trends (targets and touches).  Here are the Sleepers for Week 14:

Alex Smith, QB, San Francisco 49ers
Opponent: Arizona Cardinals
Projection: 24-37, 245 yards, 2 TD

I’ve been riding the Alex Smith bandwagon for several weeks now, and he’s continued to play at a high level.  Still, he’s owned in fewer than 40% of leagues on most major platforms.  In Week 14, Smith faces the 3rd worst pass defense in the NFL (based on yards allowed per game) in the Arizona Cardinals.  Monday Night Football.  At home.  It’s a huge game for the 49ers, who are looking to salvage any hope for a playoff birth in 2009.  Smith is a better play than the likes of Jay Cutler, Eli Manning, David Garrard, Matt Hasselbeck, Carson Palmer and several others you’d potentially consider starting, including, dare I say, Tom Brady!  Well, that might be going out on a limb, even though Brady is up against the 6th ranked Carolina Panthers pass defense.

Quinton Ganther, RB, Washington Redskins
Opponent: Oakland Raiders
Projection: 18 touches, 91 yards, 1 TD

In my weekly Bruno Boys column, which I write on Tuesday and is published on Wednesday, I tabbed Rock Cartwright the Week 14 “Mr. Overlooked: Sleeper of the Week“.  That was before the Skins handed the job to Ganther.  Ganther ran harder and faster than Cartwright in Week 13, and is a great flex play against the Oakland Raiders (who surrender 158.7 ypg to opposing backs, and have given up 18 rushing touchdowns).  Ganther got 8 touches last week, but will flip-flop his numbers with Cartwright, who has been handed 55 touches over the past three weeks (18.3 tpg).  Plus, Ganther is available in nearly 90% of leagues!

Vince Young, QB, Tennessee Titans
Opponent: St. Louis Cardinals
Projection: 20-33, 210 yards, 1 TD, 5-21 rushing

Like Smith, I’ve been riding the Young bandwagon, and rightfully so.  The guy gets it done on both the fantasy and reality gridirons.  He’s coming off back-to-back solid fantasy weeks (19 fantasy points in Week 12, 16 last week – in standard scoring leagues with no bonuses), and even when he struggles, he finds a way to hit double-digits in fantasy points.  Evidence: Week 13 versus Houston (12-22, 116 yards, 1 TD, 11-73 rushing, 1 fumble lost, 13 fantasy points).  Young, like Smith, is a better play this week against the Rams — though they’re 16th ranked pass D is a bit underrated — than some of the guys mentioned in the write-up on Smith above.  No, Tom Brady is not one of them.

Kenny Britt, WR, Tennessee Titans
Opponent: St. Louis Rams
Projection: 9 targets, 5 catches, 72 yards, 1 TD

Britt leads the Titans in targets over the past three weeks with 25, and despite only hauling in three balls for 46 yards in Week 13 (on 9 targets), he still scored a touchdown for the third straight game.  As stated in the Vince Young snippet, the Rams have an underrated pass defense, and have allowed just 16 touchdowns through the air in 2009.  Still, I expect Young to throw for a score, and Britt, the rookie, has matured into the target to whom the QB most likes to throw.

Jermichael Finley, TE, Green Bay Packers
Opponent: Chicago Bears
Projection: 8 targets, 4 catches, 51 yards, 1 TD

Finley has been targeted 24 times over the past three weeks, and his 8 target, 7 catch, 79 yard, 2 TD performance in Week 13 wasn’t an apparition.  The Bears are tough against the pass, but have yielded 21 scores through the air.  Don’t expect another 19 fantasy point outing from the Packer tight end, but don’t be surprised if he comes close, either.

Please Deploy the following Non-Sleepers:

Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City Cheifs @ Buffalo Bills
Knowshon Moreno, RB, Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts
Robert Meachem, WR, New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons
Michael Crabtree, WR, San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals
Steve Smith, WR, New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Pierre Garcon, WR, Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos

For more in depth insight, visit brunoboys.net and check out Fasulo’s Forecaster.