By Josh Fasulo

It’s been a long time coming for the former first round pick, but for this entire week, Donald Brown was a full participant in practice.  He didn’t look good last week against the Houston Texans, and there’s always a chance he falls victim to a hangnail two snaps into the game, but if he can overcome his frailty, Brown is a solid sleeper in Week 9.  With Joseph Addai doubtful, Mike Hart questionable and unlikely to play, and the Indianapolis Colts‘ receiving corp losing yet another player (Anthony Gonzalez has been placed on the IR), Brown could find himself in line for some serious work Sunday.  Lining up against a formidable Philadelphia Eagles‘ defense (12th in the league in total defense), expectations should be tempered, but 15 to 20 touches and a score is not unrealistic… assuming he can stay on the field.

Week 9 Projection: 13 carries – 40 yards, 4 receptions – 28 yards, 1 TD (12 fantasy points)

Posted: January 16, 2010

The 2009 fantasy football season kicked off with only one certainty: Adrian Peterson would be the top pick in most drafts.  However, looking back on the year that was, were we all to journey back to the summer and redraft our teams, some things would have gone differently.

As I mentioned in the Bruno Boys’ season recap edition of Fasulo’s Forecaster, Chris Johnson, the consensus hypothetical redraft number one pick, ran away, literally, with fantasy MVP honors (2,006 rushing yards, 503 receiving yards, 16 touchdowns).  Ray Rice, in this writer’s opinion, was a solid second (2,041 yards from scrimmage, 8 touchdowns), and Aaron Rodgers was third.  Rodgers’ 4,434 yards, 30 touchdowns (to only 7 interceptions), 316 rushing yards and 5 rushing scores were nothing to scoff at, but Johnson outscored Rodgers in standard scoring leagues, and Rice’s draft value was superior to that of the All-Pro QB — chances are, Rice was a mid-round pick in your league.

All-in-all, 2009 was one hell of a season.  A couple old dogs (30+ year-old running backs) proved age to be  just a number, as Ricky Williams ran for over 1,100 yards at age 32 and Thomas Jones topped 1,400 at 31.  Both had double digit touchdowns, 11 and 14, respectively.  A couple more old dogs proved the adage that once a running back hits 30, the end comes quickly.  Despite 12 rushing touchdowns, 30 year-old LaDainian Tomlinson managed only 730 yards on the ground, with a career low average of 3.3 yard-per-carry.  30 year-old Brian Westbrook lost most of the season to concussions, but in eight games, totaled just 455 yards and 2 scores.  The Philadelphia Eagles have a 2010 in-house replacement for Westbrook in rookie running back LeSean McCoy (637 rushing yards, 308 receiving yards, 4 TD), but chances are, the San Diego Chargers will look elsewhere for tailback help, as Darren Sproles, though he totaled more than 800 yards and scored 8 touchdowns in 2009, is likely not an every-down back.

Aside from Rice, Williams and Jones, there were a few more running back surprises in 2009… for the worse.  Matt Forte, a top ten draft pick, finished the season with 929 rushing yards, 471 receiving yards and 4 scores, a respectable line for a mid-round draft pick, a horrific line for a RB1 who is supposed to carry your fantasy team.  Steve Slaton, a first/second round pick, caused even more fantasy damage, as his fumble-itus found him on the real world bench, and though he got back into the mix toward the end of the year before suffering an injury, his final stat-line left much to be desired: 437 rushing yards, 417 receiving yards, 7 TD.

While some players were disappointing this year, others were exceptional.  Dallas Cowboys‘ wide receiver Miles Austin broke out in Week 6 to the tune of 250 yards and 2 touchdowns, and he never looked back, finishing the season with 1,320 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns.  His fantasy total was third best among receivers, behind only Houston Texans‘ star Andre Johnson (1,569 yards, 9 TD) and New England Patriots‘ All-Pro Randy Moss (1.264 yards, 13 TD).  In San Francisco, tight end Vernon Davis catapulted his career to new levels, leading all NFL tight ends in touchdowns (13) and leading his team in receiving yards (965).  Across the country in New York, the Steve Smith who began the season known as “the other Steve Smith” made a name for himself by setting the Giants‘ single-season record for receptions (107) and amassing 1,220 receiving yards and 7 scores.  (Side note: Though they both finished with 7 touchdowns, the Giants’ Steve Smith out-gained Carolina Panthers’ Steve Smith by 238 receiving yards.)  In Minnesota, Brett Favre revitalized his career again, and the career of third-year wideout Sidney Rice took off.  Rice, left undrafted in some leagues, finished the season with 1,312 receiving yards and 8 scores.

All across the board, 2009 was another great season in fantasy football land.  Here is a look at the Fantasy Sports Shack accolades (lists) for the 2009 fantasy football season, and the top 30 Keepers for 2010:

MVP

TOP ROOKIE

TOP KEEPERS FOR 2010

Thank you, my faithful followers, for a great 2009.  Keep your eyes out for the Fantasy Sports Shack’s baseball coverage, which will start in the near future, and come back next August for more Fantasy Sports Shack football coverage!  (Though, I’m sure there will be a few topics for discussion between now and then.)

Posted: December 29, 2009

The final week of the NFL regular season is upon us, and many fantasy football champions have been determined.  However, for those whose fates shall be determined in this final week, it’s best you know a few not-so-household names who will have major impacts in the fantasy world.

Mike Tolbert, RB, San Diego Chargers
Opponent: Washington Redskins
Projection: 24 touches, 108 yards, 1 TD

Chances are, the Chargers, having already clinched a first-round bye, are going to rest LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles on Sunday.  That scenario leaves Tolbert to handle the bulk of the workload.  In Week 16, the hulking 243-pound back rumbled for 60 yards on 11 carries.  With the Redskins having given up on the 2009 season, it should be a walk in the park for the Chargers second-stringers.

Donald Brown, RB, Indianapolis Colts
Opponent: Buffalo Bills
Projection: 21 touches, 98 yards, 1 TD

Like the Chargers, the Colts’ fate (home field advantage throughout) has already been determined, thus Brown and the other back-ups will get a chance to show their stuff in Week 17.  Though Brown’s injury-plagued rookie season has been a severe disappointment — some folks thought he’d supplant Joseph Addai by season’s end — he will be given every opportunity to show his value to his team from this point forward, starting with a terrific match-up with the worst run defense in the NFL in Week 17.

Brandon Jackson, RB, Green Bay Packers
Opponent: Arizona Cardinals
Projection: 14 touches, 56 yards, 1 TD

The Green Bay Packers have already clinched a wild card spot, and likely will rest their starters for much of their Week 17 match-up with the Cardinals.  In Week 16, Jackson scored three touchdowns on just eight touches.  Expect the touches to go up and the scores to go down this week, but he should still see ample opportunity while splitting time with Ahman Green (while Ryan Grant watches from the sidelines in preparation for next week’s playoff game).

Devin Aromashodu, WR, Chicago Bears
Opponent: Detroit Lions
Projection: 9 targets, 5 catches, 75 yards, 1 TD

If you hadn’t noticed, Aromashodu is starting to make a name for himself in Chicago.  Seven catches, 150 yards and a score in Week 16, he’s quickly playing himself into a prominent role for 2010.  Against the lowly Detroit Lions in Week 17, expect him to have another solid outing.  If he’s available in your league — chances are, he is — go get him, and plug him into your starting lineup.  With the likes of Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon, Marques Colston, Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Chad Ochocinco and Vincent Jackson likely to get some rest on Sunday, Aromashodu is a more-than-capable fill-in.

Alex Smith, QB, San Francisco 49ers
Opponent: St. Louis Rams
Projection: 22-34, 245 yards, 1 TD

Since taking over for Shaun Hill in Week 7, all Smith has done is throw for 2,128 yards and 17 touchdowns (212 ypg, 1.7 TD/game).  Sure, he’s been erratic at times (12 interceptions), but there’s more good than bad here, especially this week as he squares off with the St. Louis Rams.  Expect a similar performance to last week’s 230-yard, one TD effort against Detroit.

Other Great Starts:

Knowshon Moreno, RB, Denver Broncos (vs. Kansas City)
Jason Snelling, RB, Atlanta Falcons (@ Tampa Bay)
Austin Collie, WR, Indianapolis Colts (@ Buffalo)

Posted December 23, 2009

Last week’s sleepers never awoke from their naps, and it resulted in this writer’s demise in one of his leagues.  Thanks a lot, Arian “fumbles” Foster.  At least I was on the right track with a Browns’ running back, as Jerome Harrison rocked the Kansas City Chiefs’ world to the tune of 286 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns!  Week 16 isn’t as much about finding sleepers as it is about going with what got you here.  However, if you’re in need of a last second fill-in, consider one of these plays:

Mike Bell, RB, New Orleans Saints
Opponent: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projection: 12 touches, 50 yards, 1 TD

Projecting which of the Saints three backs will be worthy of a fantasy start is not easy, but considering the fact Tampa Bay is one of the league’s worst run defense (158.9 ypg allowed, 15 rushing scores allowed), one of the Saints backs is sure to have a big day.  Considering Bell went for 75 yards and 2 TD in the last meeting with the Bucs, it appears he may be in line for another solid performance.

Jason Snelling, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Opponent: Buffalo Bills
Projection: 11 touches, 44 yards, 1 TD

Michael Turner is going to attempt to play on Sunday, despite re-aggravating his ankle injury in Week 15.  Chances are, he won’t be able to handle the entire worklaod, and since the Bills are the worst run defense in football, Snelling is a good speculative add/potential flex play.  Jerious Norwood hasn’t done enough in 2009 to supplant Snelling should something happen to Turner.

Oakland Raiders Starting Running Back
Opponent: Cleveland Browns
Projection: 15 touches, 60 yards, TD

In the past, I’ve run with the Raiders and been burned every time.  “What have you done for me lately” logic would say Michael Bush is a great play in Week 16, after his 100-yard effort in Week 15.  However, this is the Raiders we’re talking about, so when something ain’t broke, they try to fix it.  Justin Fargas is, probably, the least talented of the backs in Oakland, but when he’s been healthy, he’s been the guy.  Darren McFadden, minus the fumble-itus, probably has the most talent, but he’s not the lead guy.  Whoever Tom Cable names the starter this week, expect a moderately good game for a potential flex play.

Jermichael Finley, TE, Green Bay Packers
Opponent: Seattle Seahawks
Projection: 9 targets, 7 catches, 66 yards, 1 TD

Finley is coming off three consecutive 70-plus-yard games, and the Seahawks’ defense doesn’t exactly strike fear into the hearts of its opponents.  249 ypg, 26 touchdowns.  That’s what the Seahawks have surrendered in 2009.  The Packers average over 260 ypg and have 28 passing scores this year.  Recipe: Success.  Finley, Jennings and Driver are all good plays in this one.

Fred Davis, TE, Washington Redskins
Opponent: Dallas Cowboys
Projection: 6 targets, 4 catches, 42 yards, 1 TD

The guy just catches touchdowns.  At least one in each of his last four games (totaling five), six overall.  Jason Campbell is comfortable throwing him the ball in the red zone, so there’s no reason to expect any less of Davis in Week 16.  10 fantasy points from a tight end is a pretty solid day.  If he’s out there, grab him.

Others of Note (with solid match-ups):

Jerome Harrison, RB, Cleveland Browns (vs. Oakland Raiders)
Beanie Wells, RB, Arizona Cardinals (vs. St. Louis Rams)
Michael Crabtree, WR, San Francisco 49ers (vs. Detroit Lions)

Posted: December 17, 2009

It’s getting down to the wire in the fantasy football world, and this is the time when major questions arise.  “Do I play LaDainian Tomlinson, or do I take a chance on Quinton Ganther?”  That was one of the questions from Week 14, and if you were one of the brave who stuck Ganther in the lineup, you were rewarded.  This week is no different.  Match-ups will trump names in some cases, but one thing is for certain, always play your best guys.  Sorry, Mr. Tomlinson, you are no longer consider one of the “best guys”.  Here are some names who could help you survive to Week 16:

Chris Jennings, RB, Cleveland Browns
Opponent: Kansas City Chiefs
Projection: 22 touches, 104 yards, 1 TD

The Chiefs have been awful against the run all season, allowing 148.1 yards and 1 TD per game, and over the past two weeks (against Buffalo and Denver), they’ve been even more miserable, surrendering over 200 yards in each, including a 245-yard, 2 TD thrashing by the Broncos.  Jennings accumulated 73 yards and a touchdown against the toughest run defense in the league in the Pittsburgh Steelers, so to think the Chiefs are going to bottle him up is a bit of a joke.  Joshua Cribbs is going to get a few added carries this week, but with a feeble passing attack, the Browns will keep the ball on the ground throughout.

Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans
Opponent: St. Louis Rams
Projection: 20 touches, 96 yards, 1 TD

When and if Foster is handed the starting job, as Quinton Ganther was last week, he will become an immediate great start.  He’s an unknown commodity, but he has the size (6’1″, 216 lbs) and ability to put up big numbers against a Rams’ defense that surrenders 147.2 ypg to opposing backs, and has allowed 19 rushing touchdowns on the season.  At the very least, if Ryan Moats is given one more chance to hold onto the ball (and not fumble), Foster could see the goal line carries.

Chris Chambers, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Opponent: Cleveland Browns
Projection: 8 targets, 4 catches, 55 yards, 1 TD

Dwayne Bowe will return this weekend from his four-game suspension, and though it may take him a week or two to get back to game speed, coverage will roll to his side, leaving Chambers in man-to-man for most of the day.  Against an already weak Cleveland secondary that surrenders 238 ypg through the air and has given up 18 passing scores against only 6 interceptions, the match-up bodes well for Chambers and the Chiefs.  Also, the fact that Jamaal Charles will likely be reeling off big chunks of yardage on the ground will only mean the Browns will have to, at times, put eight men in the box to try and stop the run.

Jason Campbell, QB, Washington Redskins
Opponent: New York Giants
Projection: 22-34, 262 yards, 2 TD

Campbell has been rolling of late.  Over the past four games, the Redskin slinger is averaging 269 ypg, and has thrown 7 touchdown to only 3 interceptions.  The Giants’ secondary looked so bad against Philadelphia last week, they could have thrown a 12th man on the field and still gotten torched.  Expect the trends on both sides to continue.

Houston Texans D/ST
Opponent: St. Louis Rams
Projection: 13 points allowed, 3 sacks, 1 Int, 1 fumble recovery

The Texans dominated the Seattle Seahawks in Week 14 to the tune of 7 points allowed, 3 sacks and an interception.  This week, against an even more inept offense in the St. Louis Rams, the Texans D has a chance to once again play the bully.  It’s extremely likely Houston gets up big early, thus eliminating much of the Steven Jackson threat — the only threat on the Rams’ offense.

Other Must Deploys for Week 15:

Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City vs. Cleveland Browns
Knowshon Moreno, RB, Denver Broncos vs. Oakland Raiders
Beanie Wells, RB, Arizona Cardinals @ Detroit Lions
Justin Forsett, RB, Seattle Seahawks vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

For more insight, check out brunoboys.net and Fasulo’s Forecaster: Week 15.

Posted: December 10, 2009

It’s playoff time, and at no other point in the season is finding that diamond in the rough more important.  Thus, we’re gonna change it up a bit from here on.  Rather than give you two or three guys at a position who could help you get to the next round, I’m going to be spotlighting a few players, regardless of position, who are high-end Sleepers based on match-ups and trends (targets and touches).  Here are the Sleepers for Week 14:

Alex Smith, QB, San Francisco 49ers
Opponent: Arizona Cardinals
Projection: 24-37, 245 yards, 2 TD

I’ve been riding the Alex Smith bandwagon for several weeks now, and he’s continued to play at a high level.  Still, he’s owned in fewer than 40% of leagues on most major platforms.  In Week 14, Smith faces the 3rd worst pass defense in the NFL (based on yards allowed per game) in the Arizona Cardinals.  Monday Night Football.  At home.  It’s a huge game for the 49ers, who are looking to salvage any hope for a playoff birth in 2009.  Smith is a better play than the likes of Jay Cutler, Eli Manning, David Garrard, Matt Hasselbeck, Carson Palmer and several others you’d potentially consider starting, including, dare I say, Tom Brady!  Well, that might be going out on a limb, even though Brady is up against the 6th ranked Carolina Panthers pass defense.

Quinton Ganther, RB, Washington Redskins
Opponent: Oakland Raiders
Projection: 18 touches, 91 yards, 1 TD

In my weekly Bruno Boys column, which I write on Tuesday and is published on Wednesday, I tabbed Rock Cartwright the Week 14 “Mr. Overlooked: Sleeper of the Week“.  That was before the Skins handed the job to Ganther.  Ganther ran harder and faster than Cartwright in Week 13, and is a great flex play against the Oakland Raiders (who surrender 158.7 ypg to opposing backs, and have given up 18 rushing touchdowns).  Ganther got 8 touches last week, but will flip-flop his numbers with Cartwright, who has been handed 55 touches over the past three weeks (18.3 tpg).  Plus, Ganther is available in nearly 90% of leagues!

Vince Young, QB, Tennessee Titans
Opponent: St. Louis Cardinals
Projection: 20-33, 210 yards, 1 TD, 5-21 rushing

Like Smith, I’ve been riding the Young bandwagon, and rightfully so.  The guy gets it done on both the fantasy and reality gridirons.  He’s coming off back-to-back solid fantasy weeks (19 fantasy points in Week 12, 16 last week – in standard scoring leagues with no bonuses), and even when he struggles, he finds a way to hit double-digits in fantasy points.  Evidence: Week 13 versus Houston (12-22, 116 yards, 1 TD, 11-73 rushing, 1 fumble lost, 13 fantasy points).  Young, like Smith, is a better play this week against the Rams — though they’re 16th ranked pass D is a bit underrated — than some of the guys mentioned in the write-up on Smith above.  No, Tom Brady is not one of them.

Kenny Britt, WR, Tennessee Titans
Opponent: St. Louis Rams
Projection: 9 targets, 5 catches, 72 yards, 1 TD

Britt leads the Titans in targets over the past three weeks with 25, and despite only hauling in three balls for 46 yards in Week 13 (on 9 targets), he still scored a touchdown for the third straight game.  As stated in the Vince Young snippet, the Rams have an underrated pass defense, and have allowed just 16 touchdowns through the air in 2009.  Still, I expect Young to throw for a score, and Britt, the rookie, has matured into the target to whom the QB most likes to throw.

Jermichael Finley, TE, Green Bay Packers
Opponent: Chicago Bears
Projection: 8 targets, 4 catches, 51 yards, 1 TD

Finley has been targeted 24 times over the past three weeks, and his 8 target, 7 catch, 79 yard, 2 TD performance in Week 13 wasn’t an apparition.  The Bears are tough against the pass, but have yielded 21 scores through the air.  Don’t expect another 19 fantasy point outing from the Packer tight end, but don’t be surprised if he comes close, either.

Please Deploy the following Non-Sleepers:

Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City Cheifs @ Buffalo Bills
Knowshon Moreno, RB, Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts
Robert Meachem, WR, New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons
Michael Crabtree, WR, San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals
Steve Smith, WR, New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Pierre Garcon, WR, Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos

For more in depth insight, visit brunoboys.net and check out Fasulo’s Forecaster.

Posted December 10, 2009

Sorry for the delay, Fantasy Sports Shack faithful, it’s been a hectic week… preparing for the fantasy playoffs!  Here are the Week 13 Sleeper results:

QUARTERBACK (2 for 2)

Alex Smith (San Francisco) – Got it done again.
Projected: 22-36, 225 yards, 2 TD 1 Int
Actual: 27-45, 310 yards, 2 TD

Vince Young (Tennessee) – Like before, see note above for Alex Smith.
Projected: 15-26, 185 yards, 1 TD, 7-35 rushing
Actual: 24-43, 241, 2 TD, 1 Int, 4-16 rushing

RUNNING BACK (0 for 3)

Chris Jennings (Cleveland) – Should have gone with Jerome Harrison.
Projected: 20-65 rushing, 2-11 receiving, 1 TD
Actual: 5-28 rushing, 1-2 receiving

Rock Cartwright (Washington) – Did just enough to lose his starting job to Quinton Ganther.
Projected: 14-55 rushing, 3-17 receiving, 1 TD
Actual: 13-39 rushing, 3-31 receiving

Jerious Norwood (Atlanta) – Norwood couldn’t even come close to a modest projection.
Projected: 14-63 rushing, 3-22 receiving
Actual: 11-18 rushing, 2-24 receiving

WIDE RECEIVER (0 for 3)

Mike Wallace (Pittsburgh) – The rookie’s fantasy worth has gone from promising to next-to-nothing.
Projected: 4-62 receiving, 1 tD
Actual: 2-19 receiving

Malcom Floyd (San Diego) – Floyd hasn’t played a major role since taking over as a starter.
Projected: 3-39 receiving, 1 TD
Actual: 3-30 receiving

Jason Avant (Philadelphia) – You’d a thunk he’d have done a bit more than this with DeSean Jackson out.
Projected: 6-81 receiving
Actual: 3-36 receiving

TIGHT END (0 for 1)

Marcedes Lewis (Jacksonville) – Almost went Fred Davis or Jermichael Finely.  Should have pulled the trigger!
Projected: 3-35 receiving, 1 TD
Actual: 1-47 receiving

KICKER (1 for 1)

Matt Prater (Denver) – The Denver offense is clicking.
Projected: 2 FG, 3 PAT
Actual: 3 FG, 5 PAT

DEFENSE (1 for 1)

Buffalo Bills – The 5 sacks makes up for the lack of an interception and 2 more points surrendered than expected.
Projected: 17 points allowed, 2 sacks, 3 Int
Actual: 19 points allowed, 5 sacks

Scorecard for Week 13: 4 for 11
Overall Scorecard for 2009 Season: 55 for 134, 9 pushes (41%)

Posted: December 2, 2009

It’s been a crazy few days at the Fantasy Sports Shack, so the Week 13 version of “Sleepers of the Week” is going to be abbreviated.  If you’re looking for an injury fill-in at QB or a decent flex option to get you to the fantasy playoffs, here are a few guys who could help get you there:

QUARTERBACK

Alex Smith (San Francisco) @ Seattle – Projection: 22-36, 225 yards, 2 TD, 1 Int
May as well keep a good thing going.

Vince Young (Tennessee) @ Indianapolis – Projection: 15-26, 185 yards, 1 TD, 7-35 rushing
See note for Alex Smith.

RUNNING BACK

Chris Jennings (Cleveland) vs. San Diego – Projection: 20-65 rushing, 2-11 receiving, 1 TD
Jamal Lewis to the IR?  Chris Jennings to benefit, immediately.

Rock Cartwright (Washington) vs. New Orleans  – Projection: 14-55 rushing, 3-17 receiving, 1 TD
The default top dog in Washington will grind it out… as long as the Skins are in the game.

Jerious Norwood (Atlanta) vs. Philadelphia – Projection: 14-63 rushing, 3-22 receiving
Turner likely out, Norwood likely the guy this week, not Snelling.

WIDE RECEIVER

Mike Wallace (Pittsburgh) vs. Oakland – Projection: 4-62 receiving, 1 TD
Great matchup.  Should get back on track.

Malcom Floyd (San Diego) @ Cleveland – Projection: 3-39 receiving, 1 TD
Vincent Jackson has been awful of late, and Floyd could get an extra look or two.

Jason Avant (Philadelphia) @ Atlanta – Projection: 6-81 receiving
If DeSean Jackson is concussed, Avant is the deep threat.

TIGHT END

Marcedes Lewis (Jacksonville) vs. Houston – Projection: 3-35, 1 TD
It was a toss-up here between Fred Davis, Jermichael Finley and Lewis.  I went with Lewis for the matchup.

KICKER

Matt Prater (Denver) @ Kansas City – Projection: 2 FG, 3 PAT
Coming off a big Thanksgiving day win against the Giants, the Broncos’ offense has momentum.

DEFENSE

Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets – Projection: 17 points allowed, 2 sacks, 3 Int
Sanchez has been erratic, and the Bills are ballhawks in the secondary.  Thomas Jones may have a big day, though.

Posted: November 30, 2009

Call it a Turkey day treat or momentum from a 7 for 10 Week 11, however you look at it, there was something extra to be thankful for this year: Sleepers coming through!  Not to boast, but the Shack is on fire!  Here are the results for Week 12:

QUARTERBACK (2 for 2)

Alex Smith (San Francisco) – Continuing to prove doubters wrong, Smith had another solid day.
Projected: 21-35, 220 yards, 2 TD
Actual: 27-41, 232 yards, 2 TD, 3-8 rushing

Vince Young (Tennessee) – Young absolutely went off in the second half, leading the resurgent Titans to a W.
Projected: 13-21, 155 yards, 1 TD, 5-35 rushing
Actual: 27-43, 387 yards, 1 TD, 4-8 rushing

RUNNING BACK (2 for 3)

Justin Forsett (Seattle) – Good luck getting your job back, Julius Jones.
Projected: 13-71 rushing, 5-31 receiving, 1 TD
Actual: 22-130 rushing, 2 TD

Jamaal Charles (Kansas City) – If you snagged Charles a few weeks ago, as we suggested, you’re a happy camper.
Projection: 14-65 rushing, 3-11 receiving, 1 TD
Actual: 14-93 rushing, 3-54 receiving, 1 TD, 1 fumble lost

Danny Ware (New York Giants) – Ware (and the Giants) looked horrible on Thanksgiving night.
Projection: 9-51 rushing, 3-24 receiving
Actual: 4-27 rushing, 1-(-4) receiving, 1 fumble lost

WIDE RECEIVER (2 for 3)

Antonio Bryant (Tampa Bay) – Exceeded the yardage expectation on 2 fewer receptions!
Projected: 5-67 receiving, 1 TD
Actual: 3-91 receiving, 1 TD

Earl Bennett (Chicago) – Does anyone else feel like the Broncos got the better end of the Cutler deal?
Projected: 7-84 receiving
Actual: 3-14 receiving

Pierre Garcon (Indianapolis) – A few weeks ago, it was all about Austin Collie.  Now, Garcon is WR3A in Indy.
Projected: 5-72 receiving
Actual: 5-63 receiving, 1 TD

TIGHT END (0 for 1)

Jermichael Finley (Green Bay) – On paper, it was a great move.  As it turns out, should have gone Donald Lee.
Projected: 4-39 receiving, 1 TD
Actual: 3-25 receiving

KICKER (0 for 1)

Dan Carpenter (Miami) – Didn’t even attempt a field goal.
Projected: 2 FG, 2 PAT (1 FG 40+)
Actual: 2 PAT

DEFENSE (1 for 1)

Atlanta Falcons – For a minute, it looked like it could spiral out of hand, but they ended up taking care of business.
Projected: 17 points allowed, 2 sacks, 1 Int, 1 fumble recovery
Actual: 17 points allowed, 6 sacks, 1 fumble recovery

Scorecard for Week 12: 7 for 11
Overall Scorecard for 2009 Season: 51 for 123, 9 pushes (41%)

I’ll take another round turkey, a heaping pile of mashed potatoes and a mound of stuffing.  I’ll go for seconds, maybe thirds, on yams and cranberry.  I’ll make room for a slice of pie or three, and then it’s on to dessert and a plate full of Sleepers for Week 12:

QUARTERBACK

Alex Smith (San Francisco) vs. Jacksonville – Projection: 21-35, 220 yards, 2 TD
Smith didn’t look great on Sunday against Green Bay, but still threw for 227 yards and 3 TD.  Jacksonville ranks 25th versus the pass, so another solid performance is a high probability.

Vince Young (Tennessee) vs. Arizona – Projection: 13-21, 155 yards, 1 TD, 5-35 rushing
Young is not an exciting fantasy option, but it’s surprising how little it takes to get double-digit fantasy points from the guy.  With just 116 passing yards in Week 11, Young was still good for 14 fantasy points thanks to 73 rushing yards and a passing TD.

RUNNING BACK

Justin Forsett (Seattle) @ St. Louis – Projection: 13-71 rushing, 5-31 receiving, 1 TD
Even if Julius Jones returns from his bruised lung, Forsett has more than proven his worth in Seattle, and will get his touches.  The Rams are 28th in the league against the run, so this will probably be the last week Forsett qualifies as a “Sleeper”.

Jamaal Charles (Kansas City) @ San Diego – Projection: 14-65 rushing, 3-11 receiving, 1 TD
Against a tough Pittsburgh D, Charles still found a way to be a viable fantasy option by catching a 2-yard touchdown pass from Matt Cassel and returning a kickoff for 6.  San Diego is 21st against the run, so Charles could have another solid day.

Danny Ware (New York Giants) @ Denver – Projection: 9-51 rushing, 3-24 receiving
When the Giants travel to Denver for a Thanksgiving night showdown with the Broncos, Ahmad Bradshaw (ankle) will not make the trip.  With Brandon Jacobs (leg) a bit hobbled, the door could swing open for the Giants’ number three back.

WIDE RECEIVER

Antonio Bryant (Tampa Bay) @ Atlanta – Projection: 5-67 receiving, 1 TD
Bryant had 1248 yards and 7 TD just one season ago.  After battling injuries for much of this year, he’s healthy and could start to build a rapport with Tampa Bay rookie gunslinger, Josh Freeman.  It doesn’t hurt that Atlanta is 29th against the pass.

Earl Bennett (Chicago) @ Minnesota – Projection: 7-84 receiving
Over the past 3 weeks, Chicago’s leading ypc receiver (12.8) has a modest 15 grabs for 177 yards.  Not exactly a trend that would suggest a big game versus Minnesota, but here we go again, putting up the bucks for a guy who always fails to deliver a TD.  This could be the week…

Pierre Garcon (Indianapolis) @ Houston – Projection: 5-72 receiving
Over the past 3 weeks, Garcon is tied with Roddy White for 13th in the NFL in WR targets (28).  Over that span, he has 14 catches, 218 yards and 1 TD, including 108 yards last week.  By the way, he has Peyton Manning throwing him the ball.

TIGHT END

Jermichael Finley (Green Bay) @ Detroit – Projection: 4-39 receiving, 1 TD
How can I not go with Finley (again)?  He’s owned in less than 20% of fantasy leagues, yet, per game, is outperforming Jason Witten, Jeremy Shockey and John Carlson, all of whom are owned in more than 75% of leagues!  Plus, here comes Detroit.

KICKER

Dan Carpenter (Miami) @ Buffalo – Projection: 2 FG, 2 PAT (1 FG 40+)
It’s time to see if Carpenter can be a cold weather kicker.  Safe bet, the Montana alum will be fine, and the Dolphins will get him into range at least twice against the Bills.  Carpenter has scored 74 (real life) points thus far in 2009, and has a big leg.

DEFENSE

Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay – Projection: 17 points allowed, 2 sacks, 1 Int, 1 fumble recovery
The Buccaneers have shown flashes of ability on offense, and there could be some again on Sunday.  That said, Atlanta is averaging 2 sacks and nearly 2 takeaways per game, and Tampa will really be no match at home.