NFL Playoffs 2011 – AFC Divisional Round Matchups
By Brian McGee
The Wild Card weekend is done, and, to no surprise, the Ravens made it through. The Jets found a way to get past Peyton Manning and the Colts, and thus, I was 1 for 2 last week with my AFC predictions. Let’s see if I can improve on that this week.
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
When worlds collide, this is what it must feel like. These two powerhouse defenses are known for wanting to mame and decapitate each other, and have had some success in doing both. They split their regular season meetings, with both games decided by a field goal, even with Pittsburgh starting 13-year pro and perennial back-up Charlie Batch in the Week 4 meeting (won by the Ravens). When Ben Roethlisberger was behind center, the Steelers won, but Big Ben suffered a broken nose in the process; a little reminder from the Ravens that they don’t like to lose. This game will be just like the previous matches. The defenses will keep the score low because neither give up a lot of touchdowns, and the game should be decided by which QB can take their respective team down the field in the 4th quarter. The Steelers defense has been able to keep them in games and give Big Ben a chance to make a game-winning drive. Joe Flacco looked precise and under control for the Ravens in last week’s route of the Kansas City Chiefs. You can’t take much away from that game offensively because of the turnovers, but Flacco looked more poised than last year, and that is a big thing. Going into Heinz field and trying to win in the playoffs is a very difficult task, but I think the Ravens are up to it. Ray Rice is now more involved in the gameplan, and the Ravens have many receiving targets for Flacco. Troy Polamalu can’t cover them all. Of course, this will be a grind out kind of game, but at the end, the drive that will matter will be in the hands of the Ravens offense, and they will get it done.
Ravens win 20-17
New York Jets @ New England Patriots
Apparently Rex Ryan is confused. He believes this game is only about him against Bill Belichick. He has forgotten the beat-down his team received the last time these two met. His focus should be on getting his team past this round of the playoffs and into the AFC Championship game. Making it personal may take some of the pressure off of his team, but it shouldn’t be needed at this juncture of the season. Your team is either mentally and physically prepared by now or they aren’t. If the Jets are not ready, then that blame is rested squarely on Ryan’s shoulders. After last week’s last second field goal by Nick Folk, the Jets made it past the Indianapolis Colts, but if they expect to contend with the Patriots, they will need a much better game out of their QB. Mark Sanchez was 18 for 31 against the Colts for 189 yards and 1 interception. That won’t cut it against Brady and Company. The Jets needed poor coaching from the Indianapolis sideline to narrowly escape Wild-Card Weekend. Belichick won’t give the Jets as many opportunities. He will have a phenomenal game plan, as usual, and Brady will execute it with precision. With BenJarvus Green-Ellis becoming a consistent running back and the dual threat of Danny Woodhead, the Patriots are a more balanced and higher caliber team.
Patriots win 27-17
Sleepers of the Week: Week 7
Posted: October 23, 2009
Time to make up for a dismal Week 6. This week, some lesser-owned diamonds in the rough will be viable bye week fill-ins, and a few should even be rostered permanently, as some former graduates from this column have been (Mike Sims-Walker, Rashard Mendenhall, Steve Smith (NYG), etc.). Here are the Sleepers for Week 7:
QUARTERBACK
Chad Henne vs. New Orleans – Projection: 16-24, 220 yards, 2 TD, 1 Int
In Week 5, Henne threw for 241 yards and 2 TD’s against the 8th ranked Jets’ pass defense, and he’s had 2 weeks to prepare for a New Orleans D that leads the league with 11 interceptions but can be susceptible to the pass (Kevin Kolb, 391 yards Wk. 2).
Shaun Hill @ Houston – Projection: 17-27, 210 yards, 1 TD
Don’t expect massive numbers, but for a bye week QB, you could do worse, especially seeing as though Frank Gore is back and Michael Crabtree is about to add a new weapon to the offense. And, oh yeah, the Texans only rank 19th against the pass.
RUNNING BACK
Michael Bush vs. New York Jets – Projection: 12-46 rushing, 1-8 receiving, 1 TD
In McFadden’s absence, Bush hasn’t been the go-to-guy, as anticipated. Justin Fargas had 23 carries last week, but much of it was due to the fact Bush got banged up. The Jets are 21st against the run, and Bush has a decent chance to get in for 6.
Mike Bell @ Miami – Projection: 9-33 rushing, 1 TD
Bell had 15 carries in Week 6, but most of it was mop-up duty when the Saints had the game in the bag. Pierre Thomas is the #1 back, but Bell is the goal-line sniper. Another score is likely, despite the Dolphins‘ stout run defense (3rd in NFL).
Kevin Faulk @ Tampa Bay (In London) – Projection: 5-24 rushing, 4-41 receiving
This week, Laurence Maroney and BenJarvus Green-Ellis are 1-2 in the RB pecking order. Faulk’s role will expand slightly, and though he probably won’t explode, if desperate, he is a fair flex option play against the second worst run defense in football.
WIDE RECEIVER
Lance Moore @ Miami – Projection: 5-59, 1 TD
Moore hauled in 79 passes in 2008, and last week, finally worked his way back into the offense. He had 6 catches for 78 yards and a TD, and was targeted 7 times by Drew Brees. The Saints will keep on throwing, and Moore is a safe bet for a decent day.
Mike Wallace vs. Minnesota – Projection: 3-55, 1 TD
Wallace has caught a mere 2 balls in each of his last 3 games, averaging about 50 yards per game. He has the ability to break out (7 catches, 102 yards against Cincinatti Wk. 3), and Minnesota‘s defense has the tendency to give up big yards in the air.
Mohamed Massoquoi vs. Green Bay – Projection: 6-91
Over the past 3 weeks, the unheralded rookie has averaged 9.67 targets, 4.67 receptions and 82 yards per game. Green Bay is sure to jump out to a big lead, meaning Cleveland will be forced to throw. This could be the week Massoquoi finds paydirt.
TIGHT END
Zach Miller vs. New York Jets – Projection: 5-71, 1 TD
Miller was targeted 11 times last week, and has 13 catches for 241 yards and a TD over the last 3 weeks. The Jets‘ D is solid, and the Raiders‘ O is not. Still, Miller seems poised to become the most consistent offensive player on his team.
KICKER
Joe Nedney @ Houston – Projection: 3 FG, 2 PAT (1 FG 50+)
Facing the 20th ranked overall defense, the 49ers offense should give their strong-legged kicker ample opportunities in the controlled climate in Houston.
DEFENSE
Carolina Panthers vs. Buffalo – Projection: 17 points allowed, 3 sacks, 1 Int, 1 fumble recovery
This is a bipolar defense (2nd against the pass, 29th against the rush), and though the Bills should run the ball a bunch, their overall lack of a passing game — especially with Ryan Fitzpatrick in there — will allow Carolina to stack the box.
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