NFL Playoffs 2011-NFC Divisional Match-ups
By Brian McGee
Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears:
The Earth shaking Seahawks are trying to prove the World wrong again. They will be on the road in this game in a very cold environment. The forecast — to be in the mid to high 20′s, with a chance of snow shower — should prove an advantage for the Chicago Bears. Matt Hasselback decided to play like a Hall of Fame QB and beat the defending champs last week in their wild card match-up. During the season he threw 12 touchdowns and 17 interceptions, but against the Saints last week he threw 4 touchdowns to only 1 interception. He had a passer rating of 113, a touch better than his average rating for the season of 73. After the phenomenal run of Marshawn Lynch that almost brought the town of Seattle to rubble, the Seahawks must be taken more seriously. If the Bears think they will be able to control them with their defense and have Cutler get the ball in the end zone, they could be in for a shock. With that being said, this is the best match-up that Bears could have asked for. They have earned their home field advantage, although it was through a lesser schedule than most teams. They will need the accuracy of Cutler to return and to use the versatility of Matt Forte early and often to move the chains. The Bears “D” will not allow 41 points to be posted up on them; they are rested and ready to get their run into the playoffs. Look for a controlled run/pass attack and a fierce defense from the Bears to end the Seahawks hopes for another shocking win.
Bears win 24-17
Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons
Matt Ryan does not lose at the Georgia Dome. Aaron Rodgers loves to win in hostile settings. It’s a battle of phenomenal young QB’s, one a little more seasoned than the other. The Falcons and Ryan have been proving people wrong every week of the season; they have proven how dominant their defense can be and how poised their young quarterback is. This is the game that I would watch if their was only one game that I could. I want to see how Rodgers finds throwing room against the Falcons and how well Jennings can respond with a mediocre performance last week. The Packers dropped a couple crucial balls last week, especially at the end of the half when James Jones used his frying pan hands and missed a scoring opportunity. With a lot of offensive possibilities in this game, the key to whomever wins will once again be a defensive stop in the final 2 minutes. Whatever team will come through and muster up that little extra on defense will win the game. I am very excited for this game, and I hope it lives up to the hype I am giving it. Two great duos with Rodgers and Jennings and Ryan and White. Fantastic defenses playing at the highest level, not many things can top playoff football.
Packers win 27-24
2009 Season Wrap-Up
Posted: January 16, 2010
The 2009 fantasy football season kicked off with only one certainty: Adrian Peterson would be the top pick in most drafts. However, looking back on the year that was, were we all to journey back to the summer and redraft our teams, some things would have gone differently.
As I mentioned in the Bruno Boys’ season recap edition of Fasulo’s Forecaster, Chris Johnson, the consensus hypothetical redraft number one pick, ran away, literally, with fantasy MVP honors (2,006 rushing yards, 503 receiving yards, 16 touchdowns). Ray Rice, in this writer’s opinion, was a solid second (2,041 yards from scrimmage, 8 touchdowns), and Aaron Rodgers was third. Rodgers’ 4,434 yards, 30 touchdowns (to only 7 interceptions), 316 rushing yards and 5 rushing scores were nothing to scoff at, but Johnson outscored Rodgers in standard scoring leagues, and Rice’s draft value was superior to that of the All-Pro QB — chances are, Rice was a mid-round pick in your league.
All-in-all, 2009 was one hell of a season. A couple old dogs (30+ year-old running backs) proved age to be just a number, as Ricky Williams ran for over 1,100 yards at age 32 and Thomas Jones topped 1,400 at 31. Both had double digit touchdowns, 11 and 14, respectively. A couple more old dogs proved the adage that once a running back hits 30, the end comes quickly. Despite 12 rushing touchdowns, 30 year-old LaDainian Tomlinson managed only 730 yards on the ground, with a career low average of 3.3 yard-per-carry. 30 year-old Brian Westbrook lost most of the season to concussions, but in eight games, totaled just 455 yards and 2 scores. The Philadelphia Eagles have a 2010 in-house replacement for Westbrook in rookie running back LeSean McCoy (637 rushing yards, 308 receiving yards, 4 TD), but chances are, the San Diego Chargers will look elsewhere for tailback help, as Darren Sproles, though he totaled more than 800 yards and scored 8 touchdowns in 2009, is likely not an every-down back.
Aside from Rice, Williams and Jones, there were a few more running back surprises in 2009… for the worse. Matt Forte, a top ten draft pick, finished the season with 929 rushing yards, 471 receiving yards and 4 scores, a respectable line for a mid-round draft pick, a horrific line for a RB1 who is supposed to carry your fantasy team. Steve Slaton, a first/second round pick, caused even more fantasy damage, as his fumble-itus found him on the real world bench, and though he got back into the mix toward the end of the year before suffering an injury, his final stat-line left much to be desired: 437 rushing yards, 417 receiving yards, 7 TD.
While some players were disappointing this year, others were exceptional. Dallas Cowboys‘ wide receiver Miles Austin broke out in Week 6 to the tune of 250 yards and 2 touchdowns, and he never looked back, finishing the season with 1,320 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. His fantasy total was third best among receivers, behind only Houston Texans‘ star Andre Johnson (1,569 yards, 9 TD) and New England Patriots‘ All-Pro Randy Moss (1.264 yards, 13 TD). In San Francisco, tight end Vernon Davis catapulted his career to new levels, leading all NFL tight ends in touchdowns (13) and leading his team in receiving yards (965). Across the country in New York, the Steve Smith who began the season known as “the other Steve Smith” made a name for himself by setting the Giants‘ single-season record for receptions (107) and amassing 1,220 receiving yards and 7 scores. (Side note: Though they both finished with 7 touchdowns, the Giants’ Steve Smith out-gained Carolina Panthers’ Steve Smith by 238 receiving yards.) In Minnesota, Brett Favre revitalized his career again, and the career of third-year wideout Sidney Rice took off. Rice, left undrafted in some leagues, finished the season with 1,312 receiving yards and 8 scores.
All across the board, 2009 was another great season in fantasy football land. Here is a look at the Fantasy Sports Shack accolades (lists) for the 2009 fantasy football season, and the top 30 Keepers for 2010:
MVP
| Player | Position | Team | Stats | |
| 1 | Chris Johnson | RB | Titans | 2,006 rush yds, 503 rec yds, 16 TD, 3 fum |
| 2 | Ray Rice | RB | Ravens | 1,339 rush yds, 702 rec yds, 8 TD, 3 fum |
| 3 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | Packers | 4,434 pass yds, 30 TD, 7 INT, 316 rush yds, 5 rush TD, 4 fum |
| 4 | Drew Brees | QB | Saints | 4,388 pass yds, 34 TD, 11 INT, 33 rush yds, 2 rush TD, 6 fum |
| 5 | Peyton Manning | QB | Colts | 4,500 pass yds, 33 TD, 16 INT |
| 6 | Maurice Jones-Drew | RB | Jaguars | 1,391 rush yds, 374 rec yds, 16 TD, 1 fum |
| 7 | Adrian Peterson | RB | Vikings | 1,383 rush yds, 436 rec yds, 18 TD, 6 fum |
| 8 | Thomas Jones | RB | Jets | 1,402 rush yds, 58 rec yds, 14 TD |
| 9 | Andre Johnson | WR | Texans | 1,569 rec yds, 9 TD, 10 rush yds |
| 10 | Miles Austin | WR | Cowboys | 1,320 rec yds, 11 TD |
TOP ROOKIE
| Player | Position | Team | Stats | |
| 1 | Knowshon Moreno | RB | Broncos | 947 rush yds, 213 rec yds, 9 TD, 4 fum |
| 2 | Percy Harvin | WR | Vikings | 790 rec yds, 135 rush yds, 8 TD |
| 3 | Beanie Wells | RB | Cardinals | 793 rush yds, 143 rec yds, 7 TD, 2 fum |
| 4 | Hakeem Nicks | WR | Giants | 790 rec yds, 8 rush yds, 6 TD |
| 5 | LeSean McCoy | RB | Eagles | 637 rush yds, 308 rec yds, 4 TD, 1 fum |
| 6 | Mike Wallace | WR | Steelers | 756 rec yds, 48 rush yds, 6 TD, 1 fum |
| 7 | Austin Collie | WR | Colts | 676 rec yds, 7 TD |
| 8 | Jeremy Maclin | WR | Eagles | 762 rec yds, 4 TD |
| 9 | Kenny Britt | WR | Titans | 701 rec yds, 3 TD, 1 fum |
| 10 | Michael Crabtree | WR | 49ers | 625 rec yds, 2 TD, 1 fum |
TOP KEEPERS FOR 2010
| Player | Position | Team | Reason | |
| 1 | Chris Johnson | RB | Titans | As if 2,500 yards and 16 TD wasn’t enough, he’s only 24. |
| 2 | Adrian Peterson | RB | Vikings | He’ll only be 25 in 2010, and has lots of miles left on those tires. |
| 3 | Maurice Jones-Drew | RB | Jaguars | First year as full-time RB1 a success, look for him to do more of the same in 2010 and beyond. |
| 4 | Ray Rice | RB | Ravens | 2009′s FSS MVP runner-up has proven he’s for real. |
| 5 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | Packers | 2009′s top fantasy QB just turned 26 years-old. |
| 6 | Andre Johnson | WR | Texans | The 28 year-old All-Pro is at the top of his game for a team on the rise. |
| 7 | Drew Brees | QB | Saints | The leader of the league’s most prolific offense has a few good sesaons left in his arm. |
| 8 | Frank Gore | RB | 49ers | This may seem like a high ranking, but he’s the centerpiece of a blossoming offense. |
| 9 | Larry Fitzgerald | WR | Cardinals | 13 touchdowns in 2009 for arguably the best receiver in football. |
| 10 | DeSean Jackson | WR | Eagles | The guy just makes huge plays, and he’s still getting better. |
| 11 | Steven Jackson | RB | Rams | At 26, he is the best player on one of the worst teams in football, and he still managed 1,416 rush yards. |
| 12 | Jamaal Charles | RB | Chiefs | A stretch? Maybe. But in the second half of ’09, the only RB better was Chris Johnson. |
| 13 | Peyton Manning | QB | Colts | He’ll be 34 next season, but his style of play dictates success for years to come. |
| 14 | Beanie Wells | RB | Cardinals | Likely locked in a timeshare again in 2010, but this time, he’s the man. |
| 15 | Jonathan Stewart | RB | Panthers | Like Wells, Stewart shares time, but coming into his third year, he’s set to take on a bigger load. |
| 16 | Vernon Davis | TE | 49ers | Apologies to Clark, Gates and Gonzalez, but Davis is just entering his prime and could potentially put up WR1 numbers. |
| 17 | Philip Rivers | QB | Chargers | Uncertainty at RB, Rivers may have to throw more in 2010. |
| 18 | Miles Austin | WR | Cowboys | Can he do it again in 2010? It’s worth a gamble. |
| 19 | Knowshon Moreno | RB | Broncos | Likely to take on a bigger workload from here on. |
| 20 | Percy Harvin | WR | Vikings | Again, might seem like a stretch, but this guy is lightning in a bottle. |
| 21 | Vincent Jackson | WR | Chargers | Disappeared for a bit down the stretch, but still one of the top young receivers in the game. |
| 22 | Rashard Mendenhall | RB | Steelers | He’s taken over as the RB1, and year three should prove fruitful. |
| 23 | Matt Forte | RB | Bears | A sophomore slump can be blamed on his team’s lack of receivers. Look for a rebound in 2010. |
| 24 | Brandon Marshall | WR | Broncos | His talent is undeniable, but his attitude sometimes holds him back. |
| 25 | Roddy White | WR | Falcons | Matt Ryan will be ready to go in 2010, and White will reap the benefits. |
| 26 | Greg Jennings | WR | Packers | Donald Driver isn’t getting any younger, and despite a “down” 2009, Jennings is just hitting his stride. |
| 27 | Matt Schaub | QB | Texans | It feels like his fantasy owners dodged a bullet with an injury-free ’09, but his potential is worth the risk. |
| 28 | Reggie Wayne | WR | Colts | Next year, Pierre Garcon’s name could be here instead, but for now, Wayne is still the man in Indy. |
| 29 | Calvin Johnson | WR | Lions | As he builds a rapport with Stafford, the numbers are sure to go way up. |
| 30 | Shonn Greene | RB | Jets | Greene has shown flashes, and will be ready to step in when Jones’ tires inevitably go flat. |
Thank you, my faithful followers, for a great 2009. Keep your eyes out for the Fantasy Sports Shack’s baseball coverage, which will start in the near future, and come back next August for more Fantasy Sports Shack football coverage! (Though, I’m sure there will be a few topics for discussion between now and then.)
Sleepers of the Week: Week 17
Posted: December 29, 2009
The final week of the NFL regular season is upon us, and many fantasy football champions have been determined. However, for those whose fates shall be determined in this final week, it’s best you know a few not-so-household names who will have major impacts in the fantasy world.
Mike Tolbert, RB, San Diego Chargers
Opponent: Washington Redskins
Projection: 24 touches, 108 yards, 1 TD
Chances are, the Chargers, having already clinched a first-round bye, are going to rest LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles on Sunday. That scenario leaves Tolbert to handle the bulk of the workload. In Week 16, the hulking 243-pound back rumbled for 60 yards on 11 carries. With the Redskins having given up on the 2009 season, it should be a walk in the park for the Chargers second-stringers.
Donald Brown, RB, Indianapolis Colts
Opponent: Buffalo Bills
Projection: 21 touches, 98 yards, 1 TD
Like the Chargers, the Colts’ fate (home field advantage throughout) has already been determined, thus Brown and the other back-ups will get a chance to show their stuff in Week 17. Though Brown’s injury-plagued rookie season has been a severe disappointment — some folks thought he’d supplant Joseph Addai by season’s end — he will be given every opportunity to show his value to his team from this point forward, starting with a terrific match-up with the worst run defense in the NFL in Week 17.
Brandon Jackson, RB, Green Bay Packers
Opponent: Arizona Cardinals
Projection: 14 touches, 56 yards, 1 TD
The Green Bay Packers have already clinched a wild card spot, and likely will rest their starters for much of their Week 17 match-up with the Cardinals. In Week 16, Jackson scored three touchdowns on just eight touches. Expect the touches to go up and the scores to go down this week, but he should still see ample opportunity while splitting time with Ahman Green (while Ryan Grant watches from the sidelines in preparation for next week’s playoff game).
Devin Aromashodu, WR, Chicago Bears
Opponent: Detroit Lions
Projection: 9 targets, 5 catches, 75 yards, 1 TD
If you hadn’t noticed, Aromashodu is starting to make a name for himself in Chicago. Seven catches, 150 yards and a score in Week 16, he’s quickly playing himself into a prominent role for 2010. Against the lowly Detroit Lions in Week 17, expect him to have another solid outing. If he’s available in your league — chances are, he is — go get him, and plug him into your starting lineup. With the likes of Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon, Marques Colston, Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Chad Ochocinco and Vincent Jackson likely to get some rest on Sunday, Aromashodu is a more-than-capable fill-in.
Alex Smith, QB, San Francisco 49ers
Opponent: St. Louis Rams
Projection: 22-34, 245 yards, 1 TD
Since taking over for Shaun Hill in Week 7, all Smith has done is throw for 2,128 yards and 17 touchdowns (212 ypg, 1.7 TD/game). Sure, he’s been erratic at times (12 interceptions), but there’s more good than bad here, especially this week as he squares off with the St. Louis Rams. Expect a similar performance to last week’s 230-yard, one TD effort against Detroit.
Other Great Starts:
Knowshon Moreno, RB, Denver Broncos (vs. Kansas City)
Jason Snelling, RB, Atlanta Falcons (@ Tampa Bay)
Austin Collie, WR, Indianapolis Colts (@ Buffalo)
Sleepers of the Week: Week 14
Posted: December 10, 2009
It’s playoff time, and at no other point in the season is finding that diamond in the rough more important. Thus, we’re gonna change it up a bit from here on. Rather than give you two or three guys at a position who could help you get to the next round, I’m going to be spotlighting a few players, regardless of position, who are high-end Sleepers based on match-ups and trends (targets and touches). Here are the Sleepers for Week 14:
Alex Smith, QB, San Francisco 49ers
Opponent: Arizona Cardinals
Projection: 24-37, 245 yards, 2 TD
I’ve been riding the Alex Smith bandwagon for several weeks now, and he’s continued to play at a high level. Still, he’s owned in fewer than 40% of leagues on most major platforms. In Week 14, Smith faces the 3rd worst pass defense in the NFL (based on yards allowed per game) in the Arizona Cardinals. Monday Night Football. At home. It’s a huge game for the 49ers, who are looking to salvage any hope for a playoff birth in 2009. Smith is a better play than the likes of Jay Cutler, Eli Manning, David Garrard, Matt Hasselbeck, Carson Palmer and several others you’d potentially consider starting, including, dare I say, Tom Brady! Well, that might be going out on a limb, even though Brady is up against the 6th ranked Carolina Panthers pass defense.
Quinton Ganther, RB, Washington Redskins
Opponent: Oakland Raiders
Projection: 18 touches, 91 yards, 1 TD
In my weekly Bruno Boys column, which I write on Tuesday and is published on Wednesday, I tabbed Rock Cartwright the Week 14 “Mr. Overlooked: Sleeper of the Week“. That was before the Skins handed the job to Ganther. Ganther ran harder and faster than Cartwright in Week 13, and is a great flex play against the Oakland Raiders (who surrender 158.7 ypg to opposing backs, and have given up 18 rushing touchdowns). Ganther got 8 touches last week, but will flip-flop his numbers with Cartwright, who has been handed 55 touches over the past three weeks (18.3 tpg). Plus, Ganther is available in nearly 90% of leagues!
Vince Young, QB, Tennessee Titans
Opponent: St. Louis Cardinals
Projection: 20-33, 210 yards, 1 TD, 5-21 rushing
Like Smith, I’ve been riding the Young bandwagon, and rightfully so. The guy gets it done on both the fantasy and reality gridirons. He’s coming off back-to-back solid fantasy weeks (19 fantasy points in Week 12, 16 last week – in standard scoring leagues with no bonuses), and even when he struggles, he finds a way to hit double-digits in fantasy points. Evidence: Week 13 versus Houston (12-22, 116 yards, 1 TD, 11-73 rushing, 1 fumble lost, 13 fantasy points). Young, like Smith, is a better play this week against the Rams — though they’re 16th ranked pass D is a bit underrated — than some of the guys mentioned in the write-up on Smith above. No, Tom Brady is not one of them.
Kenny Britt, WR, Tennessee Titans
Opponent: St. Louis Rams
Projection: 9 targets, 5 catches, 72 yards, 1 TD
Britt leads the Titans in targets over the past three weeks with 25, and despite only hauling in three balls for 46 yards in Week 13 (on 9 targets), he still scored a touchdown for the third straight game. As stated in the Vince Young snippet, the Rams have an underrated pass defense, and have allowed just 16 touchdowns through the air in 2009. Still, I expect Young to throw for a score, and Britt, the rookie, has matured into the target to whom the QB most likes to throw.
Jermichael Finley, TE, Green Bay Packers
Opponent: Chicago Bears
Projection: 8 targets, 4 catches, 51 yards, 1 TD
Finley has been targeted 24 times over the past three weeks, and his 8 target, 7 catch, 79 yard, 2 TD performance in Week 13 wasn’t an apparition. The Bears are tough against the pass, but have yielded 21 scores through the air. Don’t expect another 19 fantasy point outing from the Packer tight end, but don’t be surprised if he comes close, either.
Please Deploy the following Non-Sleepers:
Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City Cheifs @ Buffalo Bills
Knowshon Moreno, RB, Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts
Robert Meachem, WR, New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons
Michael Crabtree, WR, San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals
Steve Smith, WR, New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Pierre Garcon, WR, Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos
For more in depth insight, visit brunoboys.net and check out Fasulo’s Forecaster.
Week 12 Sleeper Results: Scorching
Posted: November 30, 2009
Call it a Turkey day treat or momentum from a 7 for 10 Week 11, however you look at it, there was something extra to be thankful for this year: Sleepers coming through! Not to boast, but the Shack is on fire! Here are the results for Week 12:
QUARTERBACK (2 for 2)
Alex Smith (San Francisco) – Continuing to prove doubters wrong, Smith had another solid day.
Projected: 21-35, 220 yards, 2 TD
Actual: 27-41, 232 yards, 2 TD, 3-8 rushing
Vince Young (Tennessee) – Young absolutely went off in the second half, leading the resurgent Titans to a W.
Projected: 13-21, 155 yards, 1 TD, 5-35 rushing
Actual: 27-43, 387 yards, 1 TD, 4-8 rushing
RUNNING BACK (2 for 3)
Justin Forsett (Seattle) – Good luck getting your job back, Julius Jones.
Projected: 13-71 rushing, 5-31 receiving, 1 TD
Actual: 22-130 rushing, 2 TD
Jamaal Charles (Kansas City) – If you snagged Charles a few weeks ago, as we suggested, you’re a happy camper.
Projection: 14-65 rushing, 3-11 receiving, 1 TD
Actual: 14-93 rushing, 3-54 receiving, 1 TD, 1 fumble lost
Danny Ware (New York Giants) – Ware (and the Giants) looked horrible on Thanksgiving night.
Projection: 9-51 rushing, 3-24 receiving
Actual: 4-27 rushing, 1-(-4) receiving, 1 fumble lost
WIDE RECEIVER (2 for 3)
Antonio Bryant (Tampa Bay) – Exceeded the yardage expectation on 2 fewer receptions!
Projected: 5-67 receiving, 1 TD
Actual: 3-91 receiving, 1 TD
Earl Bennett (Chicago) – Does anyone else feel like the Broncos got the better end of the Cutler deal?
Projected: 7-84 receiving
Actual: 3-14 receiving
Pierre Garcon (Indianapolis) – A few weeks ago, it was all about Austin Collie. Now, Garcon is WR3A in Indy.
Projected: 5-72 receiving
Actual: 5-63 receiving, 1 TD
TIGHT END (0 for 1)
Jermichael Finley (Green Bay) – On paper, it was a great move. As it turns out, should have gone Donald Lee.
Projected: 4-39 receiving, 1 TD
Actual: 3-25 receiving
KICKER (0 for 1)
Dan Carpenter (Miami) – Didn’t even attempt a field goal.
Projected: 2 FG, 2 PAT (1 FG 40+)
Actual: 2 PAT
DEFENSE (1 for 1)
Atlanta Falcons – For a minute, it looked like it could spiral out of hand, but they ended up taking care of business.
Projected: 17 points allowed, 2 sacks, 1 Int, 1 fumble recovery
Actual: 17 points allowed, 6 sacks, 1 fumble recovery
Scorecard for Week 12: 7 for 11
Overall Scorecard for 2009 Season: 51 for 123, 9 pushes (41%)
Sleepers of the Week: Week 12
Posted: November 25, 2009
I’ll take another round turkey, a heaping pile of mashed potatoes and a mound of stuffing. I’ll go for seconds, maybe thirds, on yams and cranberry. I’ll make room for a slice of pie or three, and then it’s on to dessert and a plate full of Sleepers for Week 12:
QUARTERBACK
Alex Smith (San Francisco) vs. Jacksonville – Projection: 21-35, 220 yards, 2 TD
Smith didn’t look great on Sunday against Green Bay, but still threw for 227 yards and 3 TD. Jacksonville ranks 25th versus the pass, so another solid performance is a high probability.
Vince Young (Tennessee) vs. Arizona – Projection: 13-21, 155 yards, 1 TD, 5-35 rushing
Young is not an exciting fantasy option, but it’s surprising how little it takes to get double-digit fantasy points from the guy. With just 116 passing yards in Week 11, Young was still good for 14 fantasy points thanks to 73 rushing yards and a passing TD.
RUNNING BACK
Justin Forsett (Seattle) @ St. Louis – Projection: 13-71 rushing, 5-31 receiving, 1 TD
Even if Julius Jones returns from his bruised lung, Forsett has more than proven his worth in Seattle, and will get his touches. The Rams are 28th in the league against the run, so this will probably be the last week Forsett qualifies as a “Sleeper”.
Jamaal Charles (Kansas City) @ San Diego – Projection: 14-65 rushing, 3-11 receiving, 1 TD
Against a tough Pittsburgh D, Charles still found a way to be a viable fantasy option by catching a 2-yard touchdown pass from Matt Cassel and returning a kickoff for 6. San Diego is 21st against the run, so Charles could have another solid day.
Danny Ware (New York Giants) @ Denver – Projection: 9-51 rushing, 3-24 receiving
When the Giants travel to Denver for a Thanksgiving night showdown with the Broncos, Ahmad Bradshaw (ankle) will not make the trip. With Brandon Jacobs (leg) a bit hobbled, the door could swing open for the Giants’ number three back.
WIDE RECEIVER
Antonio Bryant (Tampa Bay) @ Atlanta – Projection: 5-67 receiving, 1 TD
Bryant had 1248 yards and 7 TD just one season ago. After battling injuries for much of this year, he’s healthy and could start to build a rapport with Tampa Bay rookie gunslinger, Josh Freeman. It doesn’t hurt that Atlanta is 29th against the pass.
Earl Bennett (Chicago) @ Minnesota – Projection: 7-84 receiving
Over the past 3 weeks, Chicago’s leading ypc receiver (12.8) has a modest 15 grabs for 177 yards. Not exactly a trend that would suggest a big game versus Minnesota, but here we go again, putting up the bucks for a guy who always fails to deliver a TD. This could be the week…
Pierre Garcon (Indianapolis) @ Houston – Projection: 5-72 receiving
Over the past 3 weeks, Garcon is tied with Roddy White for 13th in the NFL in WR targets (28). Over that span, he has 14 catches, 218 yards and 1 TD, including 108 yards last week. By the way, he has Peyton Manning throwing him the ball.
TIGHT END
Jermichael Finley (Green Bay) @ Detroit – Projection: 4-39 receiving, 1 TD
How can I not go with Finley (again)? He’s owned in less than 20% of fantasy leagues, yet, per game, is outperforming Jason Witten, Jeremy Shockey and John Carlson, all of whom are owned in more than 75% of leagues! Plus, here comes Detroit.
KICKER
Dan Carpenter (Miami) @ Buffalo – Projection: 2 FG, 2 PAT (1 FG 40+)
It’s time to see if Carpenter can be a cold weather kicker. Safe bet, the Montana alum will be fine, and the Dolphins will get him into range at least twice against the Bills. Carpenter has scored 74 (real life) points thus far in 2009, and has a big leg.
DEFENSE
Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay – Projection: 17 points allowed, 2 sacks, 1 Int, 1 fumble recovery
The Buccaneers have shown flashes of ability on offense, and there could be some again on Sunday. That said, Atlanta is averaging 2 sacks and nearly 2 takeaways per game, and Tampa will really be no match at home.
Sleepers of the Week: Week 10
Posted: November 12, 2009
Week 10. The final bye week of the 2009 season. Next week starts the stretch run toward the fantasy football playoffs. Here are the Sleepers for Week 10 who could help keep you in contention:
QUARTERBACK
Mark Sanchez (New York Jets) vs. Jacksonville – Projection: 17-31, 210 yards, 2 TD
I’ve spotlighted Sanchez in the past, and he’s tended to let me down, but this week, against a 26th ranked Jags’ pass D, I have a hunch Mr. GQ is due. He won’t singlehandedly win you the week, but he’s a viable fill-in for Schaub or Eli Manning.
Chad Henne (Miami) vs. Tampa Bay – Projection: 16-26, 195 yards, 2 TD, 1 Int
Henne has a good match-up against a Bucs‘ defense that has given up the 3rd most touchdowns in the league to opposing passers (18), but have also snatched 11 picks.
RUNNING BACK
Jamaal Charles (Kansas City) @ Oakland – Projection: 12-62 rushing, 4-22 receiving, 1 TD
The Raiders‘ 27th ranked Swiss cheese defense surrenders 161 ypg to opposing rushers, and has given up a league high 13 rushing touchdowns. Charles could explode on any play, and should have a big day, despite sharing touches with Kolby Smith.
Mike Bell (New Orleans) @ St. Louis – Projection: 12-52 rushing, 1 TD
The Saints‘ RB1 is Pierre Thomas, and he’s a top-notch RB2 in the fantasy world. It’s the match-up that dictates this pick, as the Saints will likely be up big early, and in second half garbage time, Bell could come in for clean-up duty.
Ladell Betts (Washington) vs. Denver – Projection: 17-59 rushing, 2-19 receiving
For the record, I hate this pick. Betts is old, has a mild ankle sprain, averages 3.5 ypc over the past 3 years, has scored 1 TD in each of those seasons and already has his 1 for ’09. Still, he could see 20 touches against a tough Broncos defense.
WIDE RECEIVER
Earl Bennett (Chicago) @ San Francisco – Projection: 4-56 receiving, 1 TD
Coming off his best game of the year (11 targets, 7 catches, 93 yards), Bennett is finally showing signs of why he was considered a preseason sleeper darling. He’s still looking for his first score, and I’m betting it’s in this week’s Thursday night special.
Andre Caldwell (Cincinnati) @ Pittsburgh – Projection: 4-45 receiving, 1 TD
With Chris Henry’s season-ending injury, Caldwell’s targets should increase slightly, and his reception totals should go up accordingly. He has 3 scores on the season; 2 against Baltimore, the other against the Steelers.
Mike Wallace (Pittsburgh) vs. Cincinnati – Projection: 3-55 receiving
I don’t know why Wallace is owned in less than 50% of Yahoo! Public Leagues and fewer than 20% of ESPN leagues, especially after his Monday night performance. He’s a lock for at least 50 yards, and could score for the 3rd straight week.
TIGHT END
Brandon Pettigrew (Detroit) @ Minnesota – Projection: 6-72 receiving
The Vikings will be hanging all over whichever Lions QB starts (Matthew Stafford or Daunte Culpepper), and Pettigrew is sure to see several dump-offs. One of those could result in a TD, if the Lions get that deep into Viking territory.
KICKER
Sebastian Janikowski (Oakland) vs. Kansas City – Projection: 2 FG, 2 PAT (1 FG 40+)
This is a battle of two terrible defenses and two lowly offenses. The winner? Both teams’ kickers, who could put up very similar lines. I’ll take my chances on Janikowski (for leagues that give bonuses for long distance kicks).
DEFENSE
Tennessee Titans vs. Buffalo – Projection: 17 points allowed, 3 sacks, 2 Int
The entire Tennessee team has newfound life since their bye and the insertion of Vince Young into the starting lineup. Their defense isn’t as bad as the rankings would suggest (32nd pass, 18th rush), and Buffalo’s offense is plain dismal.
Sleepers of the Week: Week 8
Posted: October 30, 2009
This week, 4 of the league’s worst pass defenses are going head-to-head. Jacksonville (31st) is at Tennessee (32nd), and St. Louis (25th) is visiting Detroit (30th). Thus, there are a bunch of Jags, Titans, Rams and Lions spotlighted. Of the 4 teams mentioned, David Garrard is the best play, but he’s owned in too many leagues to be considered a sleeper. And no, Vince Young is not on the list. Without further ado, here are the Sleepers for Week 8:
QUARTERBACK
Matthew Stafford vs. St. Louis – Projection: 22-35, 235 yards, 2 TD, 1 Int
Stafford is coming back from a knee injury that has kept him out since Week 4, but he’s practiced 4 straight days and it appears Calvin Johnson may be back, too. The Rams give up 30 points and 250 passing yards/game.
Marc Bulger @ Detroit – Projection: 21-32, 225 yards, 2 TD
Let’s stay in Detroit for QB2. I’ve had Bulger on here before, and he’s come close to proving me right. This week will be Steven Jackson week in Detroit, but against a pass D that’s surrendered 17 TD in just 6 games, Bulger should be a safe bye-week play.
RUNNING BACK
Beanie Wells vs. Carolina – Projection: 14-63 rushing, 2-9 receiving, 1 TD
Beanie broke out in Week 7 for 77 total yards and a TD. He had 11 more touches than Tim Hightower, and though Ken Whisenhunt says Hightower is still his starter, Beanie is a better runner, and Carolina, 1st vs. the pass, is 26th against the run.
LeSean McCoy vs. New York Giants – Projection: 13-51 rushing, 4-22 receiving, 1 TD
It’s looking like there’s a good chance Brian Westbrook will still be concussed for Sunday’s game against the Giants. If that’s the case, McCoy will be the man, and could put up bigger numbers than projected, as the Giants struggle against slashing backs.
Justin Fargas @ San Diego – Projection: 16-60 rushing, 2-14 receiving
It pains me to pick Fargas because I publicly dissed him in my Bruno Boys column last week, he’s never fared well against San Diego and every Raider I spotlight lets me down. Still, he’s getting most of his team’s RB touches, and McFadden‘s out again.
WIDE RECEIVER
Donnie Avery @ Detroit – Projection: 6-81, 1 TD
However quick and sporadic they may be, Avery has shown flashes of brilliance for St. Louis. He’s battling some injuries at the moment, but if he plays, which he should, he should be the focal point of the Rams’ pass attack.
Earl Bennett vs. Cleveland – Projection: 4-58, 1 TD
Hester is the clear-cut number one receiver, Olsen will get his looks and Knox has seen slightly more targets, but the Bears are up against a very poor Cleveland defense on Sunday, and Bennett is due.
Mike Thomas @ Tennessee – Projection: 5-67
Thomas didn’t even see the field until Week 3. In Week 4, against the Titans, he hauled in 5 balls for 31 yards, and in Week 6 he pulled down 7-52. Sims-Walker and Torry Holt are the Jags’ top receiver options, but Thomas can’t be overlooked.
TIGHT END
Bo Scaife vs. Jacksonville – Projection: 5-57, 1 TD
With Vince Young taking over at QB, the Titan receivers are sure to suffer. As mentioned in the opening, Jacksonville is 31st against the pass, but Young has never been able to get the ball downfield. When Young used to start, Scaife was his go-to guy.
KICKER
Matt Prater @ Baltimore – Projection: 2 FG, 3 PAT (1 FG 40+)
The Broncos have come around a bit on offense, and Baltimore, though stout against the run, are surprisingly susceptible to the pass. Two tough defenses could mean a low scoring game, but I envision 20-something for both sides.
DEFENSE
Arizona Cardinals vs. Carolina – Projection: 16 points allowed, 3 sacks, 1 Int
The Cards have one of the worst pass defenses in football, but they’re playing against the inept Jake Delhomme. The Panthers are a good running team, but Arizona ranks #1 in rush D, and have allowed just 3 rushing TD in 6 games.
Just the Stats: 2009 Defense/Special Team Rankings
Justin Tuck: A QB's Nightmare
Posted: September 5, 2009
| TEAM | Bye | Week 14-15-16 |
| New York Giants | 10 | Phi, @Was, Car |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 8 | @Cle, GB, Bal |
| Minnesota Vikings | 9 | Cin, @Car, @Chi |
| Baltimore Ravens | 7 | Det, Chi, @Pit |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 4 | @NYG, SF, Den |
| New York Jets | 9 | @TB, Atl, @Ind |
| San Diego Chargers | 5 | @Dal, Cin, @Ten |
| Dallas Cowboys | 6 | SD, @NO, @Was |
| Chicago Bears | 5 | GB, @Bal, Min |
| Tennessee Titans | 7 | StL, Mia, SD |
| Washington Redskins | 8 | @Oak, NYG, Dal |
| New England Patriots | 8 | Car, @Buf, Jac |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8 | NYJ, @Sea, @NO |
| Miami Dolphins | 6 | @Jac,@Ten,Hou |
| Indianapolis Colts | 6 | Den, @Jac, NYJ |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 8 | @Min, @SD, KC |
| Carolina Panthers | 4 | @NE, Min, @NYG |
| Green Bay Packers | 5 | @Chi, @Pit, Sea |
| Arizona Cardinals | 4 | @SF, @Det, StL |
| Houston Texans | 10 | Sea, @StL, @Mia |
| Buffalo Bills | 9 | @KC, NE, @Atl |
| San Francisco 49ers | 6 | Ari, @Phi, Det |
| New Orleans Saints | 5 | @Atl, Dal, TB |
| Seattle Seahawks | 7 | SF, @Hou, TB |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 7 | Mia, Ind, @NE |
| Denver Broncos | 7 | @Ind, Oak, @Phi |
| Atlanta Falcons | 4 | NO, @NYJ, Buf |
| Oakland Raiders | 9 | Was,@Den,@Cle |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 8 | Buf, Cle, @Cin |
| Cleveland Browns | 9 | Pit, @KC, Oak |
| St. Louis Rams | 9 | @Ten, Hou, @Ari |
| Detroit Lions | 7 | @Bal, Ari, @SF |
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