NFL Playoffs 2011 – AFC Divisional Round Matchups
By Brian McGee
The Wild Card weekend is done, and, to no surprise, the Ravens made it through. The Jets found a way to get past Peyton Manning and the Colts, and thus, I was 1 for 2 last week with my AFC predictions. Let’s see if I can improve on that this week.
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
When worlds collide, this is what it must feel like. These two powerhouse defenses are known for wanting to mame and decapitate each other, and have had some success in doing both. They split their regular season meetings, with both games decided by a field goal, even with Pittsburgh starting 13-year pro and perennial back-up Charlie Batch in the Week 4 meeting (won by the Ravens). When Ben Roethlisberger was behind center, the Steelers won, but Big Ben suffered a broken nose in the process; a little reminder from the Ravens that they don’t like to lose. This game will be just like the previous matches. The defenses will keep the score low because neither give up a lot of touchdowns, and the game should be decided by which QB can take their respective team down the field in the 4th quarter. The Steelers defense has been able to keep them in games and give Big Ben a chance to make a game-winning drive. Joe Flacco looked precise and under control for the Ravens in last week’s route of the Kansas City Chiefs. You can’t take much away from that game offensively because of the turnovers, but Flacco looked more poised than last year, and that is a big thing. Going into Heinz field and trying to win in the playoffs is a very difficult task, but I think the Ravens are up to it. Ray Rice is now more involved in the gameplan, and the Ravens have many receiving targets for Flacco. Troy Polamalu can’t cover them all. Of course, this will be a grind out kind of game, but at the end, the drive that will matter will be in the hands of the Ravens offense, and they will get it done.
Ravens win 20-17
New York Jets @ New England Patriots
Apparently Rex Ryan is confused. He believes this game is only about him against Bill Belichick. He has forgotten the beat-down his team received the last time these two met. His focus should be on getting his team past this round of the playoffs and into the AFC Championship game. Making it personal may take some of the pressure off of his team, but it shouldn’t be needed at this juncture of the season. Your team is either mentally and physically prepared by now or they aren’t. If the Jets are not ready, then that blame is rested squarely on Ryan’s shoulders. After last week’s last second field goal by Nick Folk, the Jets made it past the Indianapolis Colts, but if they expect to contend with the Patriots, they will need a much better game out of their QB. Mark Sanchez was 18 for 31 against the Colts for 189 yards and 1 interception. That won’t cut it against Brady and Company. The Jets needed poor coaching from the Indianapolis sideline to narrowly escape Wild-Card Weekend. Belichick won’t give the Jets as many opportunities. He will have a phenomenal game plan, as usual, and Brady will execute it with precision. With BenJarvus Green-Ellis becoming a consistent running back and the dual threat of Danny Woodhead, the Patriots are a more balanced and higher caliber team.
Patriots win 27-17
Sleepers of the Week: Week 12
Posted: November 25, 2009
I’ll take another round turkey, a heaping pile of mashed potatoes and a mound of stuffing. I’ll go for seconds, maybe thirds, on yams and cranberry. I’ll make room for a slice of pie or three, and then it’s on to dessert and a plate full of Sleepers for Week 12:
QUARTERBACK
Alex Smith (San Francisco) vs. Jacksonville – Projection: 21-35, 220 yards, 2 TD
Smith didn’t look great on Sunday against Green Bay, but still threw for 227 yards and 3 TD. Jacksonville ranks 25th versus the pass, so another solid performance is a high probability.
Vince Young (Tennessee) vs. Arizona – Projection: 13-21, 155 yards, 1 TD, 5-35 rushing
Young is not an exciting fantasy option, but it’s surprising how little it takes to get double-digit fantasy points from the guy. With just 116 passing yards in Week 11, Young was still good for 14 fantasy points thanks to 73 rushing yards and a passing TD.
RUNNING BACK
Justin Forsett (Seattle) @ St. Louis – Projection: 13-71 rushing, 5-31 receiving, 1 TD
Even if Julius Jones returns from his bruised lung, Forsett has more than proven his worth in Seattle, and will get his touches. The Rams are 28th in the league against the run, so this will probably be the last week Forsett qualifies as a “Sleeper”.
Jamaal Charles (Kansas City) @ San Diego – Projection: 14-65 rushing, 3-11 receiving, 1 TD
Against a tough Pittsburgh D, Charles still found a way to be a viable fantasy option by catching a 2-yard touchdown pass from Matt Cassel and returning a kickoff for 6. San Diego is 21st against the run, so Charles could have another solid day.
Danny Ware (New York Giants) @ Denver – Projection: 9-51 rushing, 3-24 receiving
When the Giants travel to Denver for a Thanksgiving night showdown with the Broncos, Ahmad Bradshaw (ankle) will not make the trip. With Brandon Jacobs (leg) a bit hobbled, the door could swing open for the Giants’ number three back.
WIDE RECEIVER
Antonio Bryant (Tampa Bay) @ Atlanta – Projection: 5-67 receiving, 1 TD
Bryant had 1248 yards and 7 TD just one season ago. After battling injuries for much of this year, he’s healthy and could start to build a rapport with Tampa Bay rookie gunslinger, Josh Freeman. It doesn’t hurt that Atlanta is 29th against the pass.
Earl Bennett (Chicago) @ Minnesota – Projection: 7-84 receiving
Over the past 3 weeks, Chicago’s leading ypc receiver (12.8) has a modest 15 grabs for 177 yards. Not exactly a trend that would suggest a big game versus Minnesota, but here we go again, putting up the bucks for a guy who always fails to deliver a TD. This could be the week…
Pierre Garcon (Indianapolis) @ Houston – Projection: 5-72 receiving
Over the past 3 weeks, Garcon is tied with Roddy White for 13th in the NFL in WR targets (28). Over that span, he has 14 catches, 218 yards and 1 TD, including 108 yards last week. By the way, he has Peyton Manning throwing him the ball.
TIGHT END
Jermichael Finley (Green Bay) @ Detroit – Projection: 4-39 receiving, 1 TD
How can I not go with Finley (again)? He’s owned in less than 20% of fantasy leagues, yet, per game, is outperforming Jason Witten, Jeremy Shockey and John Carlson, all of whom are owned in more than 75% of leagues! Plus, here comes Detroit.
KICKER
Dan Carpenter (Miami) @ Buffalo – Projection: 2 FG, 2 PAT (1 FG 40+)
It’s time to see if Carpenter can be a cold weather kicker. Safe bet, the Montana alum will be fine, and the Dolphins will get him into range at least twice against the Bills. Carpenter has scored 74 (real life) points thus far in 2009, and has a big leg.
DEFENSE
Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay – Projection: 17 points allowed, 2 sacks, 1 Int, 1 fumble recovery
The Buccaneers have shown flashes of ability on offense, and there could be some again on Sunday. That said, Atlanta is averaging 2 sacks and nearly 2 takeaways per game, and Tampa will really be no match at home.
Week 4 Sleeper Results: Mendenhall Monster
Posted October 5, 2009
It was a solid week in Sleeperland. Rashard Mendenhall ran all over San Diego, Derek Anderson lived up to the bold prediction and where projections fell short, most often it wasn’t by much. Here are the Sleeper Results for Week 4:
QUARTERBACK (2 for 2)
Derek Anderson – Got the Browns going, but couldn’t manage to pull out a W.
Projected: 20-33, 230 yards, 2 TD, 1 Int
Actual: 26-48, 269 yards, 1 passing TD, 1 rushing TD, 1 Int
Shaun Hill – Didn’t quite get the yards, but didn’t throw a pick, so it all evens out in the wash.
Projected: 17-27, 215 yards, 2 TD, 1 Int
Actual: 14-24, 152 yards, 2 TD
RUNNING BACK (1 for 3)
Glen Coffee – Put up respectable numbers, but not as big as projected. A TD would have changed that tune.
Projected: 24-107 rushing, 2-14 receiving, 1 TD
Actual: 24-74 rushing, 4-32 receiving, 0 TD
Michael Bush – Ugh. Forget it.
Projected: 12-65 rushing, 2-12 receiving, 1 TD
Actual: 3-10 rushing, 1-4 receiving, 1 fumble lost
Rashard Mendenhall – The explosion should count for a 2-fer. It doesn’t, though.
Projected: 13-59 rushing, 1 TD
Actual: 29-165 rushing, 2-26 receiving, 2 TD
WIDE RECEIVER (1 for 2, 1 push)
Mike Sims-Walker – Quickly becoming a #1 NFL receiver, and borderline #1 in fantasy land.
Projected: 6-87, 1 TD
Actual: 7-91, 2 TD
Earl Bennett – I knocked Knox, but he out-caught my pick 5-2 and returned a kick for 6. Bennett clipped him in yards.
Projected: 5-70, 1 TD
Actual: 2-32, 0 TD
Josh Morgan – Had he not dropped a perfect deep ball, he could have had nearly 100 yards and 2 scores. Push.
Projected: 5-67, 1 TD
Actual: 2-39, 1 TD
TIGHT END (o for 1)
Kevin Boss – Had the catches and yards nearly right, but no score takes away most of the value.
Projected: 4-48, 1 TD
Actual: 4-41, 0 TD
KICKER (0 for 1)
Steve Hauschka – Didn’t even attempt a FG.
Projected: 3-3 FG, 2 PAT (1 FG 40+)
Actual: 3 PAT
DEFENSE (1 for 1)
Indianapolis – Solid performance, as predicted.
Projected: 13 points allowed, 2 sacks, 1 Int, 1 fumble recovery
Actual: 17 points allowed, 5 sacks, 2 fumble recoveries
Scorecard for Week 4: 5 for 10, 1 push
Overall Scorecard for 2009 Season: 18 for 42, 2 pushes (43%)
*Note from Week 3 I failed to mention: Percy Harvin’s first career kick return for a TD came 1 week after my “bold prediction” that he’d do it against the Lions.
Sleepers of the Week: Week 4
Posted: October 2, 2009
Bye weeks are upon us, and now is the time of the season when sleepers become really important. Who’s still out there on the free agent market/waiver wire who could help you win week-to-week? Here are the sleepers for Week 4:
QUARTERBACK
Derek Anderson vs. Cincinnati – Projection: 20-33, 230 yards, 2 TD, 1 Int 
Bold prediction of the week: Anderson jumpstarts the Browns’ offense. Sure, he was horrible last week in limited play (19 passes, 3 picks), but he’s going against a Cinci D with just 1 interception in ’09 (granted they have 10 sacks). Don’t forget, Anderson was one of the league’s top passers just 2 seasons ago (3,787 yards, 29 TD).
Shaun Hill vs. St. Louis – Projection: 17-27, 215 yards, 2 TD, 1 Int
Thus far in ’09, the Rams’ D has given up more than 400 ypg of total offense. They have just 3 sacks and 2 interceptions through 3 weeks, and thus, Shaun Hill should have time in the pocket to find open receivers.
RUNNING BACK
Glen Coffee vs. St. Louis – Projection: 24-107 rushing, 2-14 receiving, 1 TD 
Mike Singletary has stated the gameplan will not change with Frank Gore out of the lineup for 3 weeks, and Coffee gets the carries. He’s going against a defense that has conceded nearly 150 ypg on the ground, so if he’s still out there, act now!
Michael Bush @ Houston – Projection: 12-65 rushing, 2-12 receiving, 1 TD
It’s always a gamble going with a Raider (as the team continues to try and justify their drafting of JaMarcus Russell), but the Texans surrender over 200 rushing ypg, so it shouldn’t take a genius to figure out the gameplan here: run the football.
Rashard Mendenhall vs. San Diego – Projection: 13-59 rushing, 1 TD
Willie Parker is doubtful for Sunday night, so Mendenhall and Mewelde Moore will share time. I’ll take the upside on Mendenhall, especially in goal line situations.
WIDE RECEIVER
Mike Sims-Walker vs. Tennessee – Projection: 6-87, 1 TD 
After this week, Sims-Walker will no longer be available in your league. He’s had back-to-back 6 catch games, for 106 and 81 yards, respectively. The Jags have a good matchup this week against a mediocre Titans’ pass D (giving up 274 ypg).
Earl Bennett vs. Detroit – Projection: 5-70, 1 TD
Johnny Knox is the popular Bear of the moment, but had just 1 catch last week. Yes, he had a solid Week 2, but take away his 68 yard catch in Week 1, and you can cut his ownership in half. Bennett is the starter, and, by the way, he had 80 yards last week.
Josh Morgan vs. St. Louis – Projection: 5-67 yards, 1 TD
Vernon Davis has become Hill’s favorite target, and Isaac Bruce went for 81 and a score last year against his former team, but the matchup dictates that this could be the week Morgan, one of fantasy football’s trendiest preseason sleepers, finally breaks out.
TIGHT END
Kevin Boss @ Kansas City – Projection: 4-48, 1 TD
Not counting Week 2 against the hapless Raiders, tight ends have averaged 6.5-89, 1 TD against the Chiefs in ’09. When the Giants pass, Eli Manning will first look to Steve Smith and Mario Manningham, but Boss should play a bigger role on Sunday.
KICKER
Steve Hauschka @ New England – Projection: 3-3 FG, 2 PAT (1 FG 40+)
I try to avoid picking the same player two weeks in a row, but Hauschka is still a free agent in 80% of fantasy leagues, and thus deserves another sleeper nod. The Patriots are a bend-but-don’t-break defense, but the Ravens average 34 ppg.
DEFENSE
Indianapolis vs. Seattle – Projection: 13 points allowed, 2 Sacks, 1 Int, 1 fumble recovery
This one has the makings of a low scoring affair, as neither the Colts nor Seahawks are scoring a lot or allowing many points. Without Hasselbeck, the Seahawks are a different team; they are not a team to strike fear into the hearts of their opponents.
Sleepers of the Week: Week 3
Posted: September 24, 2009
It’s been a snorefest in Sleeperland for the first two weeks of the ’09 season, but these boys are about to awaken. Here are the sleepers for week 3:
QUARTERBACK
Trent Edwards vs. New Orleans — Projection: 21-32, 275 yards, 2 TD, 1 Int
The Saints rank 29th against the pass through two weeks, and that may, in large part, be due to the fact other teams are always playing catch-up. However, their TD:Int ratio is 2:6, so Edwards, currently sporting a 104.9 QB rating, best be wary.
Mark Sanchez vs. Tennessee — Projection: 18-28, 255 yards, 2 TD, 1 Int
Sanchez enters week 3 with a 91.3 QB rating, and faces a Tennessee defense that ranks dead last in the league in pass defense, giving up 339 ypg.
RUNNING BACK
Knowshon Moreno @ Oakland — Projection: 18-81 rushing, 3-24 receiving, 1 TD
Moreno got the lion’s share of the carries in week 2 (17) and reeled off 75 yards. The Raiders have surrendered 250 rushing yards through the first 2 weeks, so Moreno should find some room to work.
LeSean McCoy vs. Kansas City — Projection: 12-64 rushing, 4-31 receiving
The swelling in Brian Westbrook’s ankle has subsided, but he’s yet to practice. Even if Westbrook plays, McCoy should see an increased workload to give the vet’s bum wheel a break. The Chiefs rank 21st against the run, and McNabb is still out.
Beenie Wells vs. Indianapolis — Projection: 8-54 rushing, 1 TD
Beenie fumbled twice in week 2, losing 1 and his coach’s confidence, thus, “The Program” style hazing (carrying a football with him all week, everywhere he goes). But Beenie is explosive, and the Colts’ D ranks 30th against the run (176.5 ypg).
WIDE RECEIVER
Eddie Royal @ Oakland — Projection: 8-92 receiving
Royal has yet to show even a glimpse of the form he had in his 2008 rookie campaign, hauling in a measly 5 catches through 2 games. All-Pro corner Nnamdi Asomugha will be blanketing Brandon Marshall, so Royal should find room underneath.
Antwaan Randle El @ Detroit — Projection: 5-64 receiving, 1 TD
The Lions not only rank 24th against the pass through 2 weeks, they’ve given up the most touchdowns to opposing ball catchers (8). Santana Moss could have a HUGE week, but Randle El will get his looks, and should be a sneaky good play.
Chansi Stuckey vs. Tennessee — Projection: 4-55 receiving, 1 TD
Again, the Titans rank dead last against the pass. Stuckey is an under-the-radar receiver who will find a way to get open.
TIGHT END
Dustin Keller vs. Tennessee — Projection: 4-50 receiving, 1 TD
Back to the Meadowlands for our third Jets’ sleeper of the day. Sanchez is going to throw, and Keller is continuing to grow alongside his quarterback.
KICKER
Steve Hauschka vs. Cleveland — Projection: 2-2 FG, 3 PAT (1 FG 40+)
In Hauschka, the Ravens have a little known leg-man who, as they continue to roll on offense, will become better known in the fantasy world. The Browns are going to get piled up, and Hauschka will be a beneficiary.
DEFENSE
San Francisco 49ers @ Minnesota — Projection: 17 points allowed, 3 sack, 2 Int, 1 fumble recovery
The 49ers currently rank 3rd in the league against the run (53 ypg), 20th against the pass (238 ypg). Adrian Peterson could present a problem, but if his back injury flares up, this disciplined D could bottle up the Vikes and get to Favre.
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