NFL Playoffs 2011 – AFC Divisional Round Matchups
By Brian McGee
The Wild Card weekend is done, and, to no surprise, the Ravens made it through. The Jets found a way to get past Peyton Manning and the Colts, and thus, I was 1 for 2 last week with my AFC predictions. Let’s see if I can improve on that this week.
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
When worlds collide, this is what it must feel like. These two powerhouse defenses are known for wanting to mame and decapitate each other, and have had some success in doing both. They split their regular season meetings, with both games decided by a field goal, even with Pittsburgh starting 13-year pro and perennial back-up Charlie Batch in the Week 4 meeting (won by the Ravens). When Ben Roethlisberger was behind center, the Steelers won, but Big Ben suffered a broken nose in the process; a little reminder from the Ravens that they don’t like to lose. This game will be just like the previous matches. The defenses will keep the score low because neither give up a lot of touchdowns, and the game should be decided by which QB can take their respective team down the field in the 4th quarter. The Steelers defense has been able to keep them in games and give Big Ben a chance to make a game-winning drive. Joe Flacco looked precise and under control for the Ravens in last week’s route of the Kansas City Chiefs. You can’t take much away from that game offensively because of the turnovers, but Flacco looked more poised than last year, and that is a big thing. Going into Heinz field and trying to win in the playoffs is a very difficult task, but I think the Ravens are up to it. Ray Rice is now more involved in the gameplan, and the Ravens have many receiving targets for Flacco. Troy Polamalu can’t cover them all. Of course, this will be a grind out kind of game, but at the end, the drive that will matter will be in the hands of the Ravens offense, and they will get it done.
Ravens win 20-17
New York Jets @ New England Patriots
Apparently Rex Ryan is confused. He believes this game is only about him against Bill Belichick. He has forgotten the beat-down his team received the last time these two met. His focus should be on getting his team past this round of the playoffs and into the AFC Championship game. Making it personal may take some of the pressure off of his team, but it shouldn’t be needed at this juncture of the season. Your team is either mentally and physically prepared by now or they aren’t. If the Jets are not ready, then that blame is rested squarely on Ryan’s shoulders. After last week’s last second field goal by Nick Folk, the Jets made it past the Indianapolis Colts, but if they expect to contend with the Patriots, they will need a much better game out of their QB. Mark Sanchez was 18 for 31 against the Colts for 189 yards and 1 interception. That won’t cut it against Brady and Company. The Jets needed poor coaching from the Indianapolis sideline to narrowly escape Wild-Card Weekend. Belichick won’t give the Jets as many opportunities. He will have a phenomenal game plan, as usual, and Brady will execute it with precision. With BenJarvus Green-Ellis becoming a consistent running back and the dual threat of Danny Woodhead, the Patriots are a more balanced and higher caliber team.
Patriots win 27-17
Week 10: On Your Mark, Get Set, Start Em’ (cont.)
By Brian McGee
Here are some Wide Receivers who will help your team this week:
WR: Danny Amendola (StL) – Amendola is Sam Bradford’s most trusted receiver, and though Danny is not a deep threat, by any means, he receives enough targets to be a good week-to-week fill-in for your wide receiving core. In his 2nd year in the NFL, his numbers are solid: 45 receptions, 379 yards, 2 touchdowns and an average of 8.4 yards per catch. With 5.5 receptions per game, he can be counted on to produce for you when needed.
Week 10 Projection: 55 yards, 1TD
WR: Michael Jenkins (ATL) – Jenkins has only played in 3 games this year, and though he has yet to find the end zone, he is averaging a respectable 60 yards per game and 17.9 yards per catch. Roddy White is listed as questionable, but is expected to play Thursday night against the Baltimore Ravens. In turn, White will command a lot of attention from the Ravens’ secondary, leaving Jenkins to find the openings as the WR2. The Falcons might turn to the passing game if Michael Turner can’t get it done against the Ravens run defense.
Week 10 Projection: 65 yards, 1TD
Leave me a comment and let me know if this is helpful. I like the feedback. Thank you.
Week 9: Game of the Week – Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders
By Brian McGee
It has been many years since the Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders have been in contention for the AFC West championship. Yes, the season is only half way done, and San Diego is known for their aggressive second half performances, but if you are a West Coast guy, like myself, this game is a must see. Word on the street is that the game in Oakland will finally sell out, putting an end to local TV blackouts for Raiders’ home games. This marks the 103rd game between the two teams, dating back to the AFL days. The Chiefs hold a slight edge in regular season match-ups (54-46-2), and have beaten the Raiders 2-1 in the post season.
The latest installment in this storied rivalry will feature one thing: running. Sunday’s match-up presents two of the premiere rushing tandems in the NFL today: Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones for the Chiefs, and Darren McFadden and Michael Bush for the Raiders. These two groups of runners represent the growing trend in the NFL: Why have one great back when you can have two? The Chiefs’ duo has rushed for 1,204 yards this season, with a combined average of 5.4 yards per carry. Jamaal Charles leads all NFL backs (with a minimum of 100 carries) at a 6.5 yards per carry average. The Raiders’ pack have rushed for 975 yards, for an average of 4.8 yards per carry, Darren McFadden leading the way with a solid 5.5 yards per attempt.
With a forecast of breezy, low-60′s and a 40-percent chance of rain at McAfee Coliseum, you can expect a heavy dose of these two-man assault groups. Even though Jason Campbell received the Fed-Ex player of the week award for his 310 yard, 2 touchdown performance last week in the victory over Seattle, it doesn’t mean the Raiders will abandon their most valuable offensive trait. Because of the impact it will have in the AFC West (and with me), I, personally, along with my Fantasy Sports Shack colleague, Josh, will be attending this game, rain or shine, to watch as two rejuvenated teams show the whole football world they are not be mocked anymore. Ye who enters the Black Hole will be forever a changed man.
Game Predictions:
Raiders 27, Chiefs 24
McFadden – 110 yards, 1 td Bush – 55 yards, 1 td
Jones – 80 yards, 1 td Charles – 90 yards, 1 td
Sleepers, Sleepers and More Sleepers
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- Potential Comeback Player of the Year
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- Sleeper Alert!
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- Don’t sleep on Earl
Posted: September 2, 2009
Every year, our infatuation with the unknown drives us to a draft day reach or late-round flier we hope will make us look like fantasy geniuses. Which third-year wideout will step it up? Who’s the next DeAngelo Williams? Who’s the next Matt Cassel?
The best way to “scientifically” determine a sleeper is by cross-referencing research with preseason numbers, cross-checking it with team situation (depth chart, injuries, teammate abilities…) and then considering past success and/or expectations. Realistically, all I can tell you is: preseason success alone does NOT guarantee success for the season to come. For every DeAngelo Williams (2008 preseason: 188 rush yards, 3 TD; 2008 regular season: 1518 yards, 18 TD), there’s a Robert Meachem (2008 preseason: 217 rec. yards, 1 TD; 2008 regular season: 289 yards, 3 TD).
The following are solid bets for the 2009 class of sleepers. And no, Troy Williamson (232 receiving yards, 1 TD through 3 preseason games) will not be mentioned.
SLEEPERS:
QUARTERBACK
- Matt Hasselbeck (Sea) 3,200 YD, 18 TD, 14 INT, 2 300+ YD Gm
Injuries are an issue. A questionable O-line and running game don’t help, but a healthy group of receivers, and the addition of T.J. Houshmandzadeh to complement solid second-year TE John Carlson, spell potential comeback player of the year honors.
- Mark Sanchez (NYJ) 2,900 YD, 14 TD, 12 INT, 1 300+ YD Gm
Can another highly touted rookie step right in and make an impact, ala Matt Ryan? You bet. He’s won the starting gig, has had a fine preseason and the Jets will be a run first offense, putting Sanchez in a position to succeed.
RUNNING BACK
- LaDainian Tomlinson (SD) 1,150 YD, 12 TD, 3 100+ YD Gm, 400 Rec YD, 1 Rec TD
Consider this: He was dinged up last year and still managed 1,110 YD, 11 TD and 426 Rec YD. Sproles will spell him, but LT2 is the every down back, looking at 300+ carries. Don’t worry about 30. Look what Thomas Jones did last year at 30: 1312 YD, 13 TD.
- Darren McFadden (Oak) 1,050 YD, 7 TD, 3 100+ YD Gm, 400 Rec YD, 2 TD
Michael Bush, Justin Fargas, a bad O-line and unproven QB cloud the situation, but he will burst out of the pack as the best overall talent on the team. 4.4 YD/carry in 2008. Give him 200+ carries, and he’s dangerous. Plus, he’s an excellent receiver.
- Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG) 800 YD, 4 TD, 2 100+ YD Gm, 300 Rec YD, 2 Rec TD
Bradshaw is taking the role vacated by Derrick Ward and running with it. Fast. Danny Ware will get some time, and Brandon Jacobs is the goal-line guy, but Bradshaw is poised for a huge year for the best running team in football.
WIDE RECEIVER
- Josh Morgan (SF) 800 YD, 5 TD, 2 100+ YD Gm
He’s a trendy late-round breakout pick, but his situation doesn’t lend itself to definite success. Shaun Hill, the named starter at QB, has looked dismal in the preseason.
- Steve Smith (NYG) 850 YD, 4 TD, 2 100+ YD Gm
The Giants murky receiver situation has been played up by the media and downplayed by the organization. Smith, entering his 3rd season, is going to start, and he’s going to be Eli Manning’s security blanket. 1,000 yards is a real possibility.
TIGHT END
- Greg Olson (Chi) 750 YD, 6 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm
He is the trendy pick for the season, but rightfully so. Cutler is a true #1 fantasy QB, and Olson will be a major beneficiary.
KICKER
Elam is having a perfect preseason, and will be kicking for a good offense in a controlled setting (the Georgia Dome).
DEFENSE
Shawne Merriman is back, and the unit that was one of the league’s best just a couple seasons ago should be in the top 10, and could be in the top 5.
DEEP SLEEPERS:
QUARTERBACK
- Brady Quinn (Cle) 2,900 YD, 16 TD, 12 INT, 2 300+ YD Gm
Entrenched in a battle for the starting job with Derek Anderson, Quinn is posting solid numbers in the preseason. The new regime will pick its man soon – they have to, right? If Quinn is the guy, he could be poised for a solid year.
RUNNING BACK
- Laurence Maroney (NE) 700 YD, 5 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm, 150 Rec YD, 1 Rec TD
There’s a reason the Patriots took Maroney with their top pick in 2006. He has talent. An ambiguous injury and a muddled backfield situation make him a risky pick, but he has the highest upside of all New England backs, assuming his health and opportunity.
- Bernard Scott (Cin) 600 YD, 3 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm, 100 Rec YD, 0 Rec TD
At some point in 2009, he’ll get a chance to show his ability. Cedric Benson is the only “talented” runner in front of him. The Bengals need someone to step up. Why not Scott?
WIDE RECEIVER
- Earl Bennett (Chi) 800 YD, 4 TD, 2 100+ YD Gm
Bennett has been handed a starting receiver position, opposite Devin Hester, and he hasn’t disappointed. His comfort level with Jay Cutler, having played with him in college, is readily apparent. He’s poised for a breakout year.
- Chris Henry (Cin) 700 YD, 4 TD, 2 100+ YD Gm
It’s amazing what a contract year can do for a guy. Assuming he can stay healthy and out of trouble, Henry has a lot to play for. Laveranues Coles and Chad Ochocinco are 1 – 2 respectively, but Henry has potential to be as good a 3 as there is in the league.
TIGHT END
- Brent Celek (Phi) 550 YD, 4 TD, 0 100+ YD Gm
Celek could work his way into being an every week starter for fantasy teams by mid-season. He will start in Philly from day 1, and this could be a breakout year.
KICKER
No Jay Cutler, questions surrounding Brandon Marshall, but there are still weapons, and Prater should be more consistent in 2009.
DEFENSE
Albert Haynesworth is a BIG addition. He helped make Tennessee a top five D last year. He will help the ‘Skins flirt with the top 10 in 2009.
IF THE STARS ALIGN:
QUARTERBACK
- Matt Leinart (Ari) 800 YD, 3 TD, 1 INT, 1 300+ YD Gm
Kurt Warner is THE starter in the most dynamic passing attack in football. However, Leinert has looked good this preseason, and were the incumbent to go down, he is an immediate must add. Handcuff him from day 1, if you have the roster space.
RUNNING BACK
- James Davis (Cle) 450 YD, 3 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm, 100 Rec YD, 0 Rec TD
Eric Mangini claimed Jerome Harrison would have a bigger role in the offense in 2009, and then Harrison missed most of preseason due to injury. In steps the rookie, Davis, to become one of the top late-round choices in the fantasy world. Given an opportunity, Davis could showcase himself as the Steve Slaton of 2009.
- Glen Coffee (SF) 400 YD, 2 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm, 75 Rec YD, 0 Rec TD
Like Davis, fellow rookie Coffee has emerged as an exciting late-round option for 2009. Frank Gore is solidified as the starter, but Coffee will spell him. If Gore were to go down, Coffee would step in, and he would excel.
WIDE RECEIVER
- Hakeem Nicks (NYG) 700 YD, 5 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm
Over the past couple weeks, Nicks has shown why the Giants took him with their top pick. Some questions remain, but he has the skills, and the Giants need someone to step up. If he gets his shot, Nicks will obliterate these projections.
- Robert Meachem (NO) 700 YD, 5 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm
“What!? You hypocrite!” I know. I give the guy a bum rap in the opening and then put him in the mix. But look at his situation: he’s going into his 3rd year, has the best fantasy QB going (sorry Brady and Peyton), and he’s having a good preseason. IF he unseats Devery Henderson, and IF he can take his solid play to the regular season, this is the year.
TIGHT END
- Martellus Bennett (Dal) 400 YD, 4 TD, 0 100+ YD Gm
Jason Witten will be Romo’s top target, but with the departure of T.O., the receiving corp is questionable. Bennett could benefit. If something happens to Witten, he will start.
KICKER
Matt Stover was let go, and Graham Gano was brought in, but Hauschka looks like he may win the job out of camp. If he does, he could be a good bye-week pickup.
DEFENSE
The D-line and linebackers are solid, the secondary is still a bit like Swiss cheese, but this unit could surprise.
Welcome to the Shack!
Posted: September 1, 2009
Fantasy Sports Shack is a place for stats, opinions, information and links to the important stuff that will help you win a fantasy title. Football and Baseball are the focus – for now.
I’m a stats guy. Always have been. In high school I would fill spiral notebooks with predictions and box scores. I knew every Major League organization’s players down to Single A. A bit of a freak, I know, but the knowledge is what helps you to a fantasy crown. I’m the guy who wants to know what a player has done for the last few years, their trends and projections for this year. I want to know the sleepers who are going to make a difference, the rookies who will shine and veterans who will bounce back. And I want to know it before the next guy (or girl – the Shack doesn’t discriminate!).
I’ve been playing fantasy sports for almost 15 years. I’ve participated in games through USA Today, ESPN, CBS Sportsline and NFL.com, to name a few, but most of my leagues have been through Yahoo! In my current baseball league, I’m the 3-time defending champ. In one of my current football leagues – I’m in 3 – I’ve won 2 out of the past 5 years, and finished in the top 3 every other. In a Yahoo! public baseball league several years ago – I haven’t played a public league for nearly 10 years – I finished 105th out of the entire field (300,000+, I believe). I’m not trying to boast. Just letting you know I’m not yanking your chain when I offer my opinion. And that’s what I’m here to do, give you my opinion.
My opinion is what the Fantasy Sports Shack is all about. I’ll give you mine, so don’t be afraid to give me yours.
Now bring on the football season, and best of luck down the homestretch in baseball!
Welcome to the Shack!
Fantasy Sports Shack is a place for stats, opinions, information and links to the important stuff that will help you win a fantasy title, with a focus on football and baseball.
We want to know what a player has done for the last few years, their trends and projections for this year. We want to know sleepers who are going to make a difference, rookies who will shine and veterans who will bounce back. We want to know about the impact of the latest injuries, retirements and… well, legal issues. We want to know it before the next guy (or girl – the Shack doesn’t discriminate!), and we want to share it with you!
We’re just a group of fans who love fantasy sports. Some of us are new to the game, others have been playing for more than 15 years, on a number of platforms, with a variety of people. And not to boast, but we do okay. We’ve got the 4-time king (including a 3-peat) of an uber-competitive baseball league, a 2-time defending fantasy football champion and a top 3 fantasy football finisher for 6 years running. Just want to let you know we’re not yanking your chain when we offer our opinion. And that’s what we’re here to do, give you our opinion.
Opinion is what the Fantasy Sports Shack is all about. We’ll give you ours, so don’t be afraid to give us yours.
