NFL Playoffs 2011 – AFC Divisional Round Matchups
By Brian McGee
The Wild Card weekend is done, and, to no surprise, the Ravens made it through. The Jets found a way to get past Peyton Manning and the Colts, and thus, I was 1 for 2 last week with my AFC predictions. Let’s see if I can improve on that this week.
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
When worlds collide, this is what it must feel like. These two powerhouse defenses are known for wanting to mame and decapitate each other, and have had some success in doing both. They split their regular season meetings, with both games decided by a field goal, even with Pittsburgh starting 13-year pro and perennial back-up Charlie Batch in the Week 4 meeting (won by the Ravens). When Ben Roethlisberger was behind center, the Steelers won, but Big Ben suffered a broken nose in the process; a little reminder from the Ravens that they don’t like to lose. This game will be just like the previous matches. The defenses will keep the score low because neither give up a lot of touchdowns, and the game should be decided by which QB can take their respective team down the field in the 4th quarter. The Steelers defense has been able to keep them in games and give Big Ben a chance to make a game-winning drive. Joe Flacco looked precise and under control for the Ravens in last week’s route of the Kansas City Chiefs. You can’t take much away from that game offensively because of the turnovers, but Flacco looked more poised than last year, and that is a big thing. Going into Heinz field and trying to win in the playoffs is a very difficult task, but I think the Ravens are up to it. Ray Rice is now more involved in the gameplan, and the Ravens have many receiving targets for Flacco. Troy Polamalu can’t cover them all. Of course, this will be a grind out kind of game, but at the end, the drive that will matter will be in the hands of the Ravens offense, and they will get it done.
Ravens win 20-17
New York Jets @ New England Patriots
Apparently Rex Ryan is confused. He believes this game is only about him against Bill Belichick. He has forgotten the beat-down his team received the last time these two met. His focus should be on getting his team past this round of the playoffs and into the AFC Championship game. Making it personal may take some of the pressure off of his team, but it shouldn’t be needed at this juncture of the season. Your team is either mentally and physically prepared by now or they aren’t. If the Jets are not ready, then that blame is rested squarely on Ryan’s shoulders. After last week’s last second field goal by Nick Folk, the Jets made it past the Indianapolis Colts, but if they expect to contend with the Patriots, they will need a much better game out of their QB. Mark Sanchez was 18 for 31 against the Colts for 189 yards and 1 interception. That won’t cut it against Brady and Company. The Jets needed poor coaching from the Indianapolis sideline to narrowly escape Wild-Card Weekend. Belichick won’t give the Jets as many opportunities. He will have a phenomenal game plan, as usual, and Brady will execute it with precision. With BenJarvus Green-Ellis becoming a consistent running back and the dual threat of Danny Woodhead, the Patriots are a more balanced and higher caliber team.
Patriots win 27-17
Just the Stats: 2009 Quarterback Projections
Posted: September 5, 2009
All stats are based on player trends, offensive systems and current situations. The “Overall” Quarterback fantasy score is determined for leagues using the following scoring system: 25 passing yards = 1 point, TD pass = 4 points, 10 rushing yards = 1 point, TD run = 6 points, 300+ yard passing game = 6 points, INT = -1 point, Fumble = -2 points, Sack = .25 points.
| PLAYER | Age | O-Ln | Bye | Week 14-15-16 | Yards |
TD | 300+ | Int | Fm | Sak | Ru Yds | Ru TD | OVERALL |
| Drew Brees | 30 | Plus | 5 | @Atl, Dal, TB | 4,500 | 30 | 7 | 16 | 3 | 15 | 27 | 0 | 319 |
| Tom Brady | 32 | Plus | 8 | Car, @Buf, Jac | 4,100 | 33 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 30 | 90 | 1 | 315 |
| Peyton Manning | 33 | Plus | 6 | Den, @Jac, NYJ | 4,000 | 29 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 16 | 17 | 1 | 290 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 25 | Minus | 5 | @Chi, @Pit, Sea | 3,800 | 25 | 4 | 14 | 4 | 36 | 175 | 2 | 275 |
| Tony Romo | 29 | Plus | 6 | SD, @NO, @Was | 3,600 | 27 | 4 | 16 | 5 | 22 | 90 | 1 | 261 |
| Kurt Warner | 38 | Even | 4 | @SF, @Det, StL | 3,900 | 27 | 5 | 16 | 6 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 260 |
| Jay Cutler | 26 | Plus | 5 | GB, @Bal, Min | 3,800 | 22 | 4 | 16 | 3 | 23 | 150 | 1 | 255 |
| Matt Schaub | 28 | Plus | 10 | Sea, @StL, @Mia | 3,800 | 22 | 5 | 12 | 5 | 31 | 70 | 1 | 253 |
| Philip Rivers | 27 | Even | 5 | @Dal, Cin, @Ten | 3,700 | 26 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 25 | 50 | 0 | 249 |
| Donovan McNabb | 32 | Plus | 4 | @NYG, SF, Den | 3,500 | 20 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 25 | 150 | 1 | 236 |
| Matt Ryan | 24 | Plus | 4 | NO, @NYJ, Buf | 3,600 | 19 | 3 | 12 | 2 | 19 | 75 | 1 | 231 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 27 | Minus | 8 | @Cle, GB, Bal | 3,300 | 21 | 2 | 16 | 4 | 46 | 125 | 1 | 211 |
| Carson Palmer | 29 | Minus | 8 | @Min, @SD, KC | 3,200 | 22 | 3 | 16 | 3 | 36 | 65 | 0 | 209 |
| David Garrard | 31 | Minus | 7 | Mia, Ind, @NE | 3,200 | 16 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 32 | 250 | 1 | 207 |
| Eli Manning | 28 | Plus | 10 | Phi, @Was, Car | 3,250 | 22 | 1 | 16 | 3 | 27 | 33 | 1 | 204 |
| Brett Favre | 39 | Plus | 9 | Cin, @Car, @Chi | 3,200 | 21 | 3 | 20 | 2 | 30 | 40 | 0 | 203 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 33 | Minus | 7 | SF, @Hou, TB | 3,200 | 18 | 2 | 14 | 3 | 35 | 75 | 0 | 191 |
| Chad Pennington | 33 | Plus | 6 | @Jac,@Ten,Hou | 3,200 | 17 | 2 | 12 | 2 | 25 | 50 | 0 | 190 |
| Jason Campbell | 27 | Minus | 8 | @Oak, NYG, Dal | 3,000 | 14 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 35 | 200 | 1 | 190 |
| Matt Cassel | 27 | Minus | 8 | Buf, Cle, @Cin | 3,100 | 17 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 36 | 150 | 1 | 189 |
| Kyle Orton | 26 | Plus | 7 | @Ind, Oak, @Phi | 2,900 | 18 | 2 | 14 | 5 | 19 | 50 | 1 | 186 |
| Joe Flacco | 24 | Plus | 7 | Det, Chi, @Pit | 3,000 | 16 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 32 | 150 | 1 | 183 |
| Brady Quinn | 24 | Even | 9 | Pit, @KC, Oak | 2,900 | 16 | 2 | 13 | 3 | 32 | 75 | 0 | 173 |
| Jake Delhomme | 34 | Plus | 4 | @NE, Min, @NYG | 2,850 | 16 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 20 | 25 | 1 | 169 |
| Shaun Hill | 29 | Minus | 6 | Ari, @Phi, Det | 2,600 | 18 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 35 | 75 | 1 | 166 |
| JaMarcus Russell | 24 | Minus | 9 | Was,@Den,@Cle | 2,700 | 16 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 30 | 125 | 1 | 165 |
| Trent Edwards | 25 | Minus | 9 | @KC, NE, @Atl | 2,900 | 14 | 1 | 14 | 5 | 25 | 100 | 1 | 164 |
| Mark Sanchez | 22 | Plus | 9 | @TB, Atl, @Ind | 2,900 | 14 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 26 | 75 | 0 | 161 |
| Kerry Collins | 36 | Plus | 7 | StL, Mia, SD | 2,500 | 13 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 30 | 0 | 145 |
| Byron Leftwich | 29 | Plus | 8 | NYJ, @Sea, @NO | 2,200 | 14 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 19 | 60 | 0 | 139 |
| Marc Bulger | 32 | Even | 9 | @Ten, Hou, @Ari | 2,600 | 12 | 0 | 14 | 4 | 38 | 25 | 0 | 123 |
| Matthew Stafford | 21 | Minus | 7 | @Bal, Ari, @SF | 2,100 | 9 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 19 | 50 | 0 | 106 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 32 | Minus | 7 | @Bal, Ari, @SF | 1,100 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 30 | 0 | 52 |
| Matt Leinart | 26 | Even | 4 | @SF, @Det, StL | 800 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 51 |
| Derek Anderson | 26 | Even | 9 | Pit, @KC, Oak |
Impact Rookies
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- 2008 Top Rookie
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- Top Rookie for 2009?
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- The Matt Ryan of 2009?
Posted: September 3, 2009
It’s commonly known that every year a handful of rookies explode onto the scene to become fantasy stars. Traditionally, it’s the rookie running back who climbs to the top of the rubble, but occasionally, a receiver, tight end or quarterback makes his name known.
Let’s look at last year’s success stories with an average 2009 ADP in the top 100 (per Yahoo!):
Matt Forte (Chi) RB ADP: 5.3
Chris Johnson (Ten) RB ADP: 15.3
Steve Slaton (Hou) RB ADP: 17.6
Kevin Smith (Det) RB ADP: 56
Eddie Royal (Den) WR ADP: 66.1
DeSean Jackson (Phi) WR ADP: 72.7
Matt Ryan (Atl) QB ADP: 79.4
Jonathan Stewart (Car) RB ADP: 85.3
Finding the cream of the rookie crop is the single most exciting thing in fantasy sports; even more rewarding than guessing right on a twelfth round sleeper who turns into a Pro-Bowler. Okay, maybe that’s stretching it, but the truth is, a rookie can put your team over the top and help win your league. But we wary: a rookie is an unknown commodity. Not everyone is Adrian Peterson or Matt Forte. Just ask 2008 Darren McFadden owners, or Rashard Mendenhall owners, or Felix Jones owners… You get the picture.
So which rookies are worth the risk in 2009? Here’s how they stack up:
Running Backs
- Knowshon Moreno (Den) 1,100 YD, 8 TD, 4 100+ YD Gm, 300 Rec YD, 2 Rec TD
The knee injury and resulting lack of preseason time are a concern, but Moreno is the most all-around back in the 2009 class and Denver’s clear-cut top option, if healthy.
- Beanie Wells (Ari) 950 YD, 10 TD, 3 100+ YD Gm, 75 Rec YD, 0 Rec TD
Injuries are a concern, and his lack of receiving ability is an issue, but he is a beast and is easily the best runner on the Cardinals.
- Donald Brown (Ind) 800 YD, 6 TD, 2 100+ YD Gm, 250 Rec YD, 2 Rec TD
Locked in a time-share with Joseph Addai, Brown has the skill-set to excel and potentially wind up the lead back by season’s end. Watch out if Addai gets hurt.
- LeSean McCoy (Phi) 600 YD, 2 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm, 250 Rec YD, 2 Rec TD
Brian Westbrook is the starter, but McCoy will get significant touches and be a star if Westbrook goes down.
- Bernard Scott (Cin) 600 YD, 3 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm, 100 Rec YD, 0 Rec TD
Scott has the skills and has had a decent preseason. Cedric Benson is the only thing standing between him and a chance to shine. When Benson falters, Scott is the add.
- James Davis (Cle) 450 YD, 3 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm, 100 Rec YD, 0 Rec TD
Davis has proven his potential in the preseason, and if he’s given a legit chance, ahead of Harrison, to succeed Jamal Lewis – who will, inevitably fall off a cliff – he will flourish, and could put up BIG numbers.
- Glen Coffee (SF) 400 YD, 2 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm, 75 Rec YD, 0 Rec TD
Coffee may have done his best running in the preseason, as Frank Gore is the man in San Francisco. If Gore gets dinged up, Coffee will hit the ground running.
- Shonn Greene (NYJ) 350 YD, 4 TD, 0 100+ YD Gm, 50 Rec YD, 0 Rec TD
Sit back and wait. Thomas Jones and Leon Washington are the Jets’ top options, and the preseason rib injury might linger, but Greene is a nice complement who should see an increased workload as the season progresses.
- Rashad Jennings (Jac) 300 YD, 2 TD, 0 100+ YD Gm, 50 Rec YD, 0 Rec TD
Not enough preseason work to judge by, and Maurice Jones-Drew is a top 5 fantasy option. The only way Jennings gets a serious look is if MJD blows a tire.
Wide Receivers
- Percy Harvin (Min) 850 YD, 4 TD, 2 100+ YD Gm
Inconsistent in the preseason, but the Vikings are finding ways to get him the ball.
- Hakeem Nicks (NYG) 700 YD, 5 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm
Solid preseason could vault him into more playing time, which would mean he exceeds these mild expectations.
- Jeremy Maclin (Phi) 750 YD, 3 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm
The offense is deep, but he’s too talented not to succeed. Solid preseason will translate.
- Brian Robiskie (Cle) 600 YD, 3 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm
Like his quarterbacks, he’s battling for playing time.
- Kenny Britt (Ten) 550 YD, 2 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm
While Nate Washington recovers, he’ll start opposite Justin Gage in one of the weakest passing offenses in football.
- Darrius Heyward-Bey (Oak) 500 YD, 2 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm
The Raiders will force-feed the top receiver selected in the 2009 NFL draft, and then scratch their heads and wonder why they picked him.
- Michael Crabtree (SF) Will not play.
Talk about a wasted pick. Crabtree could have been a candidate for top rookie receiver honors, but he’ll likely sit out the season. Even if he does sign, he won’t be a factor.
Quarterbacks
- Mark Sanchez (NYJ) 2,900 YD, 14 TD, 12 INT, 1 300+ YD Gm
Sanchez has been handed the keys to the Jets’ franchise, and will be given every opportunity to succeed. Expect Joe Flacco numbers, not Matt Ryan. Slight bump up if they manage to acquire Brandon Marshall.
- Matthew Stafford (Det) 2,100 YD, 9 TD, 13 INT, 1 300+ YD Gm
Uneven preseason, but if Culpepper’s odd injury thrusts April’s top pick into a starting role, he has a few weapons at his disposal. Regardless, he should be starting by midseason. Avoid him, if at all possible.
Tight Ends
- Brandon Pettigrew (Det) 350 YD, 2 TD
The best bet of the rookie tight ends to make his mark, but unlikely to make a fantasy difference in ’09.
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