NFL Playoffs 2011 – AFC Divisional Round Matchups
By Brian McGee
The Wild Card weekend is done, and, to no surprise, the Ravens made it through. The Jets found a way to get past Peyton Manning and the Colts, and thus, I was 1 for 2 last week with my AFC predictions. Let’s see if I can improve on that this week.
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
When worlds collide, this is what it must feel like. These two powerhouse defenses are known for wanting to mame and decapitate each other, and have had some success in doing both. They split their regular season meetings, with both games decided by a field goal, even with Pittsburgh starting 13-year pro and perennial back-up Charlie Batch in the Week 4 meeting (won by the Ravens). When Ben Roethlisberger was behind center, the Steelers won, but Big Ben suffered a broken nose in the process; a little reminder from the Ravens that they don’t like to lose. This game will be just like the previous matches. The defenses will keep the score low because neither give up a lot of touchdowns, and the game should be decided by which QB can take their respective team down the field in the 4th quarter. The Steelers defense has been able to keep them in games and give Big Ben a chance to make a game-winning drive. Joe Flacco looked precise and under control for the Ravens in last week’s route of the Kansas City Chiefs. You can’t take much away from that game offensively because of the turnovers, but Flacco looked more poised than last year, and that is a big thing. Going into Heinz field and trying to win in the playoffs is a very difficult task, but I think the Ravens are up to it. Ray Rice is now more involved in the gameplan, and the Ravens have many receiving targets for Flacco. Troy Polamalu can’t cover them all. Of course, this will be a grind out kind of game, but at the end, the drive that will matter will be in the hands of the Ravens offense, and they will get it done.
Ravens win 20-17
New York Jets @ New England Patriots
Apparently Rex Ryan is confused. He believes this game is only about him against Bill Belichick. He has forgotten the beat-down his team received the last time these two met. His focus should be on getting his team past this round of the playoffs and into the AFC Championship game. Making it personal may take some of the pressure off of his team, but it shouldn’t be needed at this juncture of the season. Your team is either mentally and physically prepared by now or they aren’t. If the Jets are not ready, then that blame is rested squarely on Ryan’s shoulders. After last week’s last second field goal by Nick Folk, the Jets made it past the Indianapolis Colts, but if they expect to contend with the Patriots, they will need a much better game out of their QB. Mark Sanchez was 18 for 31 against the Colts for 189 yards and 1 interception. That won’t cut it against Brady and Company. The Jets needed poor coaching from the Indianapolis sideline to narrowly escape Wild-Card Weekend. Belichick won’t give the Jets as many opportunities. He will have a phenomenal game plan, as usual, and Brady will execute it with precision. With BenJarvus Green-Ellis becoming a consistent running back and the dual threat of Danny Woodhead, the Patriots are a more balanced and higher caliber team.
Patriots win 27-17
NFL Playoffs Continued
By Brian McGee
And now for the AFC match-ups.
New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts:
This isn’t a game between Mark Sanchez and Peyton Manning because if it were, it wouldn’t be a game at all; Manning is the far superior quarterback. This will be a game of defenses. The Colts D needs to harness its playoff nastiness once again to give their team a chance to advance into the next round. Manning may own Rex Ryan and any team he coaches for — like Rex Ryan’s wife needs to own some shoes — but the game will still be decided on how the defenses contain the offenses. The Jets can live with a 10 point game because they expect their defense to carry them when Sanchez and company have a hard time moving the ball. This is the first year in a while that the Colts have looked vulnerable. They did, however, end the regular season on a 4 game winning streak to get into the playoffs, and I can’t see that momentum slowing down. The Jets are a better team than they were last year, but on the road, and with the Colts rolling, I don’t see them coming away with a victory. Even with his subs in, Manning can make anybody better and will find a way to win.
Final Score: Colts win 17-13
Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs:
The league’s best rushing attack against one of the league’s best run stopping defenses. Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones have run for over 2,300 yards this season, with a combined average of 4.9 yards per carry. Charles fell less than 150 yards short of the rushing title, and he did it as a “back-up” for the first part of the year. The Ravens have found their old ways, giving Ray Rice as many touches as he can handle. He is as versatile as Charles with a lower center of gravity, so instead of going around people, he can go through them, if necessary. The Chiefs were very good in the regular season at home, with a record of 7-1, their only loss to an Oakland Raiders team that finished the season 6-0 in the AFC West. Matt Cassel and Dwayne Bowe have been off lately, and will be hard pressed to find their groove against the Ravens’ experienced defensive attack led by grandfather linebacker Ray Lewis. This will be a very good, very close game, but the Ravens will shut down the Chiefs’ ground attack and win it on a field goal in the final minutes.
Final Score: Ravens win 13-10
2009 Season Wrap-Up
Posted: January 16, 2010
The 2009 fantasy football season kicked off with only one certainty: Adrian Peterson would be the top pick in most drafts. However, looking back on the year that was, were we all to journey back to the summer and redraft our teams, some things would have gone differently.
As I mentioned in the Bruno Boys’ season recap edition of Fasulo’s Forecaster, Chris Johnson, the consensus hypothetical redraft number one pick, ran away, literally, with fantasy MVP honors (2,006 rushing yards, 503 receiving yards, 16 touchdowns). Ray Rice, in this writer’s opinion, was a solid second (2,041 yards from scrimmage, 8 touchdowns), and Aaron Rodgers was third. Rodgers’ 4,434 yards, 30 touchdowns (to only 7 interceptions), 316 rushing yards and 5 rushing scores were nothing to scoff at, but Johnson outscored Rodgers in standard scoring leagues, and Rice’s draft value was superior to that of the All-Pro QB — chances are, Rice was a mid-round pick in your league.
All-in-all, 2009 was one hell of a season. A couple old dogs (30+ year-old running backs) proved age to be just a number, as Ricky Williams ran for over 1,100 yards at age 32 and Thomas Jones topped 1,400 at 31. Both had double digit touchdowns, 11 and 14, respectively. A couple more old dogs proved the adage that once a running back hits 30, the end comes quickly. Despite 12 rushing touchdowns, 30 year-old LaDainian Tomlinson managed only 730 yards on the ground, with a career low average of 3.3 yard-per-carry. 30 year-old Brian Westbrook lost most of the season to concussions, but in eight games, totaled just 455 yards and 2 scores. The Philadelphia Eagles have a 2010 in-house replacement for Westbrook in rookie running back LeSean McCoy (637 rushing yards, 308 receiving yards, 4 TD), but chances are, the San Diego Chargers will look elsewhere for tailback help, as Darren Sproles, though he totaled more than 800 yards and scored 8 touchdowns in 2009, is likely not an every-down back.
Aside from Rice, Williams and Jones, there were a few more running back surprises in 2009… for the worse. Matt Forte, a top ten draft pick, finished the season with 929 rushing yards, 471 receiving yards and 4 scores, a respectable line for a mid-round draft pick, a horrific line for a RB1 who is supposed to carry your fantasy team. Steve Slaton, a first/second round pick, caused even more fantasy damage, as his fumble-itus found him on the real world bench, and though he got back into the mix toward the end of the year before suffering an injury, his final stat-line left much to be desired: 437 rushing yards, 417 receiving yards, 7 TD.
While some players were disappointing this year, others were exceptional. Dallas Cowboys‘ wide receiver Miles Austin broke out in Week 6 to the tune of 250 yards and 2 touchdowns, and he never looked back, finishing the season with 1,320 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. His fantasy total was third best among receivers, behind only Houston Texans‘ star Andre Johnson (1,569 yards, 9 TD) and New England Patriots‘ All-Pro Randy Moss (1.264 yards, 13 TD). In San Francisco, tight end Vernon Davis catapulted his career to new levels, leading all NFL tight ends in touchdowns (13) and leading his team in receiving yards (965). Across the country in New York, the Steve Smith who began the season known as “the other Steve Smith” made a name for himself by setting the Giants‘ single-season record for receptions (107) and amassing 1,220 receiving yards and 7 scores. (Side note: Though they both finished with 7 touchdowns, the Giants’ Steve Smith out-gained Carolina Panthers’ Steve Smith by 238 receiving yards.) In Minnesota, Brett Favre revitalized his career again, and the career of third-year wideout Sidney Rice took off. Rice, left undrafted in some leagues, finished the season with 1,312 receiving yards and 8 scores.
All across the board, 2009 was another great season in fantasy football land. Here is a look at the Fantasy Sports Shack accolades (lists) for the 2009 fantasy football season, and the top 30 Keepers for 2010:
MVP
| Player | Position | Team | Stats | |
| 1 | Chris Johnson | RB | Titans | 2,006 rush yds, 503 rec yds, 16 TD, 3 fum |
| 2 | Ray Rice | RB | Ravens | 1,339 rush yds, 702 rec yds, 8 TD, 3 fum |
| 3 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | Packers | 4,434 pass yds, 30 TD, 7 INT, 316 rush yds, 5 rush TD, 4 fum |
| 4 | Drew Brees | QB | Saints | 4,388 pass yds, 34 TD, 11 INT, 33 rush yds, 2 rush TD, 6 fum |
| 5 | Peyton Manning | QB | Colts | 4,500 pass yds, 33 TD, 16 INT |
| 6 | Maurice Jones-Drew | RB | Jaguars | 1,391 rush yds, 374 rec yds, 16 TD, 1 fum |
| 7 | Adrian Peterson | RB | Vikings | 1,383 rush yds, 436 rec yds, 18 TD, 6 fum |
| 8 | Thomas Jones | RB | Jets | 1,402 rush yds, 58 rec yds, 14 TD |
| 9 | Andre Johnson | WR | Texans | 1,569 rec yds, 9 TD, 10 rush yds |
| 10 | Miles Austin | WR | Cowboys | 1,320 rec yds, 11 TD |
TOP ROOKIE
| Player | Position | Team | Stats | |
| 1 | Knowshon Moreno | RB | Broncos | 947 rush yds, 213 rec yds, 9 TD, 4 fum |
| 2 | Percy Harvin | WR | Vikings | 790 rec yds, 135 rush yds, 8 TD |
| 3 | Beanie Wells | RB | Cardinals | 793 rush yds, 143 rec yds, 7 TD, 2 fum |
| 4 | Hakeem Nicks | WR | Giants | 790 rec yds, 8 rush yds, 6 TD |
| 5 | LeSean McCoy | RB | Eagles | 637 rush yds, 308 rec yds, 4 TD, 1 fum |
| 6 | Mike Wallace | WR | Steelers | 756 rec yds, 48 rush yds, 6 TD, 1 fum |
| 7 | Austin Collie | WR | Colts | 676 rec yds, 7 TD |
| 8 | Jeremy Maclin | WR | Eagles | 762 rec yds, 4 TD |
| 9 | Kenny Britt | WR | Titans | 701 rec yds, 3 TD, 1 fum |
| 10 | Michael Crabtree | WR | 49ers | 625 rec yds, 2 TD, 1 fum |
TOP KEEPERS FOR 2010
| Player | Position | Team | Reason | |
| 1 | Chris Johnson | RB | Titans | As if 2,500 yards and 16 TD wasn’t enough, he’s only 24. |
| 2 | Adrian Peterson | RB | Vikings | He’ll only be 25 in 2010, and has lots of miles left on those tires. |
| 3 | Maurice Jones-Drew | RB | Jaguars | First year as full-time RB1 a success, look for him to do more of the same in 2010 and beyond. |
| 4 | Ray Rice | RB | Ravens | 2009′s FSS MVP runner-up has proven he’s for real. |
| 5 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | Packers | 2009′s top fantasy QB just turned 26 years-old. |
| 6 | Andre Johnson | WR | Texans | The 28 year-old All-Pro is at the top of his game for a team on the rise. |
| 7 | Drew Brees | QB | Saints | The leader of the league’s most prolific offense has a few good sesaons left in his arm. |
| 8 | Frank Gore | RB | 49ers | This may seem like a high ranking, but he’s the centerpiece of a blossoming offense. |
| 9 | Larry Fitzgerald | WR | Cardinals | 13 touchdowns in 2009 for arguably the best receiver in football. |
| 10 | DeSean Jackson | WR | Eagles | The guy just makes huge plays, and he’s still getting better. |
| 11 | Steven Jackson | RB | Rams | At 26, he is the best player on one of the worst teams in football, and he still managed 1,416 rush yards. |
| 12 | Jamaal Charles | RB | Chiefs | A stretch? Maybe. But in the second half of ’09, the only RB better was Chris Johnson. |
| 13 | Peyton Manning | QB | Colts | He’ll be 34 next season, but his style of play dictates success for years to come. |
| 14 | Beanie Wells | RB | Cardinals | Likely locked in a timeshare again in 2010, but this time, he’s the man. |
| 15 | Jonathan Stewart | RB | Panthers | Like Wells, Stewart shares time, but coming into his third year, he’s set to take on a bigger load. |
| 16 | Vernon Davis | TE | 49ers | Apologies to Clark, Gates and Gonzalez, but Davis is just entering his prime and could potentially put up WR1 numbers. |
| 17 | Philip Rivers | QB | Chargers | Uncertainty at RB, Rivers may have to throw more in 2010. |
| 18 | Miles Austin | WR | Cowboys | Can he do it again in 2010? It’s worth a gamble. |
| 19 | Knowshon Moreno | RB | Broncos | Likely to take on a bigger workload from here on. |
| 20 | Percy Harvin | WR | Vikings | Again, might seem like a stretch, but this guy is lightning in a bottle. |
| 21 | Vincent Jackson | WR | Chargers | Disappeared for a bit down the stretch, but still one of the top young receivers in the game. |
| 22 | Rashard Mendenhall | RB | Steelers | He’s taken over as the RB1, and year three should prove fruitful. |
| 23 | Matt Forte | RB | Bears | A sophomore slump can be blamed on his team’s lack of receivers. Look for a rebound in 2010. |
| 24 | Brandon Marshall | WR | Broncos | His talent is undeniable, but his attitude sometimes holds him back. |
| 25 | Roddy White | WR | Falcons | Matt Ryan will be ready to go in 2010, and White will reap the benefits. |
| 26 | Greg Jennings | WR | Packers | Donald Driver isn’t getting any younger, and despite a “down” 2009, Jennings is just hitting his stride. |
| 27 | Matt Schaub | QB | Texans | It feels like his fantasy owners dodged a bullet with an injury-free ’09, but his potential is worth the risk. |
| 28 | Reggie Wayne | WR | Colts | Next year, Pierre Garcon’s name could be here instead, but for now, Wayne is still the man in Indy. |
| 29 | Calvin Johnson | WR | Lions | As he builds a rapport with Stafford, the numbers are sure to go way up. |
| 30 | Shonn Greene | RB | Jets | Greene has shown flashes, and will be ready to step in when Jones’ tires inevitably go flat. |
Thank you, my faithful followers, for a great 2009. Keep your eyes out for the Fantasy Sports Shack’s baseball coverage, which will start in the near future, and come back next August for more Fantasy Sports Shack football coverage! (Though, I’m sure there will be a few topics for discussion between now and then.)
Sleepers of the Week: Week 14
Posted: December 10, 2009
It’s playoff time, and at no other point in the season is finding that diamond in the rough more important. Thus, we’re gonna change it up a bit from here on. Rather than give you two or three guys at a position who could help you get to the next round, I’m going to be spotlighting a few players, regardless of position, who are high-end Sleepers based on match-ups and trends (targets and touches). Here are the Sleepers for Week 14:
Alex Smith, QB, San Francisco 49ers
Opponent: Arizona Cardinals
Projection: 24-37, 245 yards, 2 TD
I’ve been riding the Alex Smith bandwagon for several weeks now, and he’s continued to play at a high level. Still, he’s owned in fewer than 40% of leagues on most major platforms. In Week 14, Smith faces the 3rd worst pass defense in the NFL (based on yards allowed per game) in the Arizona Cardinals. Monday Night Football. At home. It’s a huge game for the 49ers, who are looking to salvage any hope for a playoff birth in 2009. Smith is a better play than the likes of Jay Cutler, Eli Manning, David Garrard, Matt Hasselbeck, Carson Palmer and several others you’d potentially consider starting, including, dare I say, Tom Brady! Well, that might be going out on a limb, even though Brady is up against the 6th ranked Carolina Panthers pass defense.
Quinton Ganther, RB, Washington Redskins
Opponent: Oakland Raiders
Projection: 18 touches, 91 yards, 1 TD
In my weekly Bruno Boys column, which I write on Tuesday and is published on Wednesday, I tabbed Rock Cartwright the Week 14 “Mr. Overlooked: Sleeper of the Week“. That was before the Skins handed the job to Ganther. Ganther ran harder and faster than Cartwright in Week 13, and is a great flex play against the Oakland Raiders (who surrender 158.7 ypg to opposing backs, and have given up 18 rushing touchdowns). Ganther got 8 touches last week, but will flip-flop his numbers with Cartwright, who has been handed 55 touches over the past three weeks (18.3 tpg). Plus, Ganther is available in nearly 90% of leagues!
Vince Young, QB, Tennessee Titans
Opponent: St. Louis Cardinals
Projection: 20-33, 210 yards, 1 TD, 5-21 rushing
Like Smith, I’ve been riding the Young bandwagon, and rightfully so. The guy gets it done on both the fantasy and reality gridirons. He’s coming off back-to-back solid fantasy weeks (19 fantasy points in Week 12, 16 last week – in standard scoring leagues with no bonuses), and even when he struggles, he finds a way to hit double-digits in fantasy points. Evidence: Week 13 versus Houston (12-22, 116 yards, 1 TD, 11-73 rushing, 1 fumble lost, 13 fantasy points). Young, like Smith, is a better play this week against the Rams — though they’re 16th ranked pass D is a bit underrated — than some of the guys mentioned in the write-up on Smith above. No, Tom Brady is not one of them.
Kenny Britt, WR, Tennessee Titans
Opponent: St. Louis Rams
Projection: 9 targets, 5 catches, 72 yards, 1 TD
Britt leads the Titans in targets over the past three weeks with 25, and despite only hauling in three balls for 46 yards in Week 13 (on 9 targets), he still scored a touchdown for the third straight game. As stated in the Vince Young snippet, the Rams have an underrated pass defense, and have allowed just 16 touchdowns through the air in 2009. Still, I expect Young to throw for a score, and Britt, the rookie, has matured into the target to whom the QB most likes to throw.
Jermichael Finley, TE, Green Bay Packers
Opponent: Chicago Bears
Projection: 8 targets, 4 catches, 51 yards, 1 TD
Finley has been targeted 24 times over the past three weeks, and his 8 target, 7 catch, 79 yard, 2 TD performance in Week 13 wasn’t an apparition. The Bears are tough against the pass, but have yielded 21 scores through the air. Don’t expect another 19 fantasy point outing from the Packer tight end, but don’t be surprised if he comes close, either.
Please Deploy the following Non-Sleepers:
Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City Cheifs @ Buffalo Bills
Knowshon Moreno, RB, Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts
Robert Meachem, WR, New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons
Michael Crabtree, WR, San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals
Steve Smith, WR, New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Pierre Garcon, WR, Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos
For more in depth insight, visit brunoboys.net and check out Fasulo’s Forecaster.
Sleepers of the Week: Week 13
Posted: December 2, 2009
It’s been a crazy few days at the Fantasy Sports Shack, so the Week 13 version of “Sleepers of the Week” is going to be abbreviated. If you’re looking for an injury fill-in at QB or a decent flex option to get you to the fantasy playoffs, here are a few guys who could help get you there:
QUARTERBACK
Alex Smith (San Francisco) @ Seattle – Projection: 22-36, 225 yards, 2 TD, 1 Int
May as well keep a good thing going.
Vince Young (Tennessee) @ Indianapolis – Projection: 15-26, 185 yards, 1 TD, 7-35 rushing
See note for Alex Smith.
RUNNING BACK
Chris Jennings (Cleveland) vs. San Diego – Projection: 20-65 rushing, 2-11 receiving, 1 TD
Jamal Lewis to the IR? Chris Jennings to benefit, immediately.
Rock Cartwright (Washington) vs. New Orleans – Projection: 14-55 rushing, 3-17 receiving, 1 TD
The default top dog in Washington will grind it out… as long as the Skins are in the game.
Jerious Norwood (Atlanta) vs. Philadelphia – Projection: 14-63 rushing, 3-22 receiving
Turner likely out, Norwood likely the guy this week, not Snelling.
WIDE RECEIVER
Mike Wallace (Pittsburgh) vs. Oakland – Projection: 4-62 receiving, 1 TD
Great matchup. Should get back on track.
Malcom Floyd (San Diego) @ Cleveland – Projection: 3-39 receiving, 1 TD
Vincent Jackson has been awful of late, and Floyd could get an extra look or two.
Jason Avant (Philadelphia) @ Atlanta – Projection: 6-81 receiving
If DeSean Jackson is concussed, Avant is the deep threat.
TIGHT END
Marcedes Lewis (Jacksonville) vs. Houston – Projection: 3-35, 1 TD
It was a toss-up here between Fred Davis, Jermichael Finley and Lewis. I went with Lewis for the matchup.
KICKER
Matt Prater (Denver) @ Kansas City – Projection: 2 FG, 3 PAT
Coming off a big Thanksgiving day win against the Giants, the Broncos’ offense has momentum.
DEFENSE
Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets – Projection: 17 points allowed, 2 sacks, 3 Int
Sanchez has been erratic, and the Bills are ballhawks in the secondary. Thomas Jones may have a big day, though.
Week 12 Sleeper Results: Scorching
Posted: November 30, 2009
Call it a Turkey day treat or momentum from a 7 for 10 Week 11, however you look at it, there was something extra to be thankful for this year: Sleepers coming through! Not to boast, but the Shack is on fire! Here are the results for Week 12:
QUARTERBACK (2 for 2)
Alex Smith (San Francisco) – Continuing to prove doubters wrong, Smith had another solid day.
Projected: 21-35, 220 yards, 2 TD
Actual: 27-41, 232 yards, 2 TD, 3-8 rushing
Vince Young (Tennessee) – Young absolutely went off in the second half, leading the resurgent Titans to a W.
Projected: 13-21, 155 yards, 1 TD, 5-35 rushing
Actual: 27-43, 387 yards, 1 TD, 4-8 rushing
RUNNING BACK (2 for 3)
Justin Forsett (Seattle) – Good luck getting your job back, Julius Jones.
Projected: 13-71 rushing, 5-31 receiving, 1 TD
Actual: 22-130 rushing, 2 TD
Jamaal Charles (Kansas City) – If you snagged Charles a few weeks ago, as we suggested, you’re a happy camper.
Projection: 14-65 rushing, 3-11 receiving, 1 TD
Actual: 14-93 rushing, 3-54 receiving, 1 TD, 1 fumble lost
Danny Ware (New York Giants) – Ware (and the Giants) looked horrible on Thanksgiving night.
Projection: 9-51 rushing, 3-24 receiving
Actual: 4-27 rushing, 1-(-4) receiving, 1 fumble lost
WIDE RECEIVER (2 for 3)
Antonio Bryant (Tampa Bay) – Exceeded the yardage expectation on 2 fewer receptions!
Projected: 5-67 receiving, 1 TD
Actual: 3-91 receiving, 1 TD
Earl Bennett (Chicago) – Does anyone else feel like the Broncos got the better end of the Cutler deal?
Projected: 7-84 receiving
Actual: 3-14 receiving
Pierre Garcon (Indianapolis) – A few weeks ago, it was all about Austin Collie. Now, Garcon is WR3A in Indy.
Projected: 5-72 receiving
Actual: 5-63 receiving, 1 TD
TIGHT END (0 for 1)
Jermichael Finley (Green Bay) – On paper, it was a great move. As it turns out, should have gone Donald Lee.
Projected: 4-39 receiving, 1 TD
Actual: 3-25 receiving
KICKER (0 for 1)
Dan Carpenter (Miami) – Didn’t even attempt a field goal.
Projected: 2 FG, 2 PAT (1 FG 40+)
Actual: 2 PAT
DEFENSE (1 for 1)
Atlanta Falcons – For a minute, it looked like it could spiral out of hand, but they ended up taking care of business.
Projected: 17 points allowed, 2 sacks, 1 Int, 1 fumble recovery
Actual: 17 points allowed, 6 sacks, 1 fumble recovery
Scorecard for Week 12: 7 for 11
Overall Scorecard for 2009 Season: 51 for 123, 9 pushes (41%)
Sleepers of the Week: Week 12
Posted: November 25, 2009
I’ll take another round turkey, a heaping pile of mashed potatoes and a mound of stuffing. I’ll go for seconds, maybe thirds, on yams and cranberry. I’ll make room for a slice of pie or three, and then it’s on to dessert and a plate full of Sleepers for Week 12:
QUARTERBACK
Alex Smith (San Francisco) vs. Jacksonville – Projection: 21-35, 220 yards, 2 TD
Smith didn’t look great on Sunday against Green Bay, but still threw for 227 yards and 3 TD. Jacksonville ranks 25th versus the pass, so another solid performance is a high probability.
Vince Young (Tennessee) vs. Arizona – Projection: 13-21, 155 yards, 1 TD, 5-35 rushing
Young is not an exciting fantasy option, but it’s surprising how little it takes to get double-digit fantasy points from the guy. With just 116 passing yards in Week 11, Young was still good for 14 fantasy points thanks to 73 rushing yards and a passing TD.
RUNNING BACK
Justin Forsett (Seattle) @ St. Louis – Projection: 13-71 rushing, 5-31 receiving, 1 TD
Even if Julius Jones returns from his bruised lung, Forsett has more than proven his worth in Seattle, and will get his touches. The Rams are 28th in the league against the run, so this will probably be the last week Forsett qualifies as a “Sleeper”.
Jamaal Charles (Kansas City) @ San Diego – Projection: 14-65 rushing, 3-11 receiving, 1 TD
Against a tough Pittsburgh D, Charles still found a way to be a viable fantasy option by catching a 2-yard touchdown pass from Matt Cassel and returning a kickoff for 6. San Diego is 21st against the run, so Charles could have another solid day.
Danny Ware (New York Giants) @ Denver – Projection: 9-51 rushing, 3-24 receiving
When the Giants travel to Denver for a Thanksgiving night showdown with the Broncos, Ahmad Bradshaw (ankle) will not make the trip. With Brandon Jacobs (leg) a bit hobbled, the door could swing open for the Giants’ number three back.
WIDE RECEIVER
Antonio Bryant (Tampa Bay) @ Atlanta – Projection: 5-67 receiving, 1 TD
Bryant had 1248 yards and 7 TD just one season ago. After battling injuries for much of this year, he’s healthy and could start to build a rapport with Tampa Bay rookie gunslinger, Josh Freeman. It doesn’t hurt that Atlanta is 29th against the pass.
Earl Bennett (Chicago) @ Minnesota – Projection: 7-84 receiving
Over the past 3 weeks, Chicago’s leading ypc receiver (12.8) has a modest 15 grabs for 177 yards. Not exactly a trend that would suggest a big game versus Minnesota, but here we go again, putting up the bucks for a guy who always fails to deliver a TD. This could be the week…
Pierre Garcon (Indianapolis) @ Houston – Projection: 5-72 receiving
Over the past 3 weeks, Garcon is tied with Roddy White for 13th in the NFL in WR targets (28). Over that span, he has 14 catches, 218 yards and 1 TD, including 108 yards last week. By the way, he has Peyton Manning throwing him the ball.
TIGHT END
Jermichael Finley (Green Bay) @ Detroit – Projection: 4-39 receiving, 1 TD
How can I not go with Finley (again)? He’s owned in less than 20% of fantasy leagues, yet, per game, is outperforming Jason Witten, Jeremy Shockey and John Carlson, all of whom are owned in more than 75% of leagues! Plus, here comes Detroit.
KICKER
Dan Carpenter (Miami) @ Buffalo – Projection: 2 FG, 2 PAT (1 FG 40+)
It’s time to see if Carpenter can be a cold weather kicker. Safe bet, the Montana alum will be fine, and the Dolphins will get him into range at least twice against the Bills. Carpenter has scored 74 (real life) points thus far in 2009, and has a big leg.
DEFENSE
Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay – Projection: 17 points allowed, 2 sacks, 1 Int, 1 fumble recovery
The Buccaneers have shown flashes of ability on offense, and there could be some again on Sunday. That said, Atlanta is averaging 2 sacks and nearly 2 takeaways per game, and Tampa will really be no match at home.
Sleepers of the Week: Week 11
Posted: November 18, 2009
Week 10 running back injuries have created some opportunities for some not-so-household-names to get their shot, and this week’s Sleepers reflect as much. Here are the Sleepers for Week 11:
QUARTERBACK
Vince Young (Tennessee) @ Houston – Projection: 15-23, 165 yards, 6-26 rushing, 1 rushing TD
The Texans are at the middle of pack versus both the pass and rush (17th and 14th, respectively), which could bode well for Young. Don’t expect a huge day, but multiple scores are a possibility.
Matthew Stafford (Detroit) vs. Cleveland – Projection: 22-38, 245 yards, 1 TD, 1 Int
The Lions have been chucking the ball, mostly because they’re always playing catch-up. They may not need to throw as much against the lowly Browns — expect a heavy dose of Kevin Smith — but Stafford should still put up a respectable line.
RUNNING BACK
Jason Snelling (Atlanta) @ New York Giants – Projection: 16-64 rushing, 1-9 receiving, 1 TD
With Michael Turner’s availability in question (potentially for an extended period of time), Snelling becomes the RB1 by default. His backfield competition, Jerious Norwood, hasn’t practiced in a month, but could see 8-12 touches… if he plays.
Bernard Scott (Cincinnati) @ Oakland – Projection: 16-59 rushing, 1 TD
2009 fantasy football MVP candidate Cedric Benson has not been ruled out for Sunday, but his prospects don’t look good. Scott ran hard and returned a kick for 6 against Pittsburgh last week, and should be Cinci’s RB1 if Benson is out, despite the addition of Larry Johnson.
Justin Forsett (Seattle) @ Minnesota – Projection: 15-57 rushing, 4-26 receiving
Forsett is a great add for all fantasy leagues, but temper expectations for Week 11 at Minnesota. The Vikings defense ranks 6th in the NFL versus the rush (94.6 ypg) and has surrendered the fewest rushing scores to opposing backs (2).
WIDE RECEIVER
Mike Wallace (Pittsburgh) @ Kansas City – Projection: 4-65 receiving, 1 TD
Wallace was on the Sleeper list last week, but with modest projections. This week, against a 24th ranked Chiefs’ pass defense that has surrendered 14 TD, expect the rook to rebound with what could potentially be a career day.
Laveranues Coles (Cincinnati) @ Oakland – Projecion: 5-61 receiving, 1 TD
While Raiders’ corner Nnamdi Asomugha is taking Chad Ochocinco out of the game, the field will open up for Coles and Andre Caldwell. Coles has 11 catches on 18 targets in the last 2 games.
Mohamed Massaquoi (Cleveland) @ Detroit – Projection: 4-71 receiving
The Lions are downright horrific against the pass (last in yards allowed per game (271.7) and 31st in TDs surrendered (20)). That said, Brady Quinn and the Browns’ passing attack is as bad or worse. Massaquoi will be the lone beneficiary.
TIGHT END
Jermichael Finley (Green Bay) vs. San Francisco – Projection: 5-58 receiving
Finley practiced on Wednesday for the first time since a Week 7 knee injury. If he’s able to go for Green Bay on Sunday, he’s a good play against the vulnerable 49ers’ safeties.
KICKER
Jeff Reed (Pittsburgh) @ Kansas City – Projection: 2 FG, 4 PAT
The Steelers’ defense will overwhelm Kansas City’s offense in their first week without Dwayne Bowe, thus creating good field position and giving Reed ample opportunities.
DEFENSE
Detroit Lions vs. Cleveland Browns – Projection: 16 points allowed, 1 sack, 1 Int, 1 fumble recovery
It’s not that the Lions will shut down Cleveland’s attack, it’s that Cleveland’s attack looks like a bad high school team. The Browns have been held to 6 or fewer points 6 times this year, and could be without Josh Cribbs, their most dynamic player.
Sleepers of the Week: Week 10
Posted: November 12, 2009
Week 10. The final bye week of the 2009 season. Next week starts the stretch run toward the fantasy football playoffs. Here are the Sleepers for Week 10 who could help keep you in contention:
QUARTERBACK
Mark Sanchez (New York Jets) vs. Jacksonville – Projection: 17-31, 210 yards, 2 TD
I’ve spotlighted Sanchez in the past, and he’s tended to let me down, but this week, against a 26th ranked Jags’ pass D, I have a hunch Mr. GQ is due. He won’t singlehandedly win you the week, but he’s a viable fill-in for Schaub or Eli Manning.
Chad Henne (Miami) vs. Tampa Bay – Projection: 16-26, 195 yards, 2 TD, 1 Int
Henne has a good match-up against a Bucs‘ defense that has given up the 3rd most touchdowns in the league to opposing passers (18), but have also snatched 11 picks.
RUNNING BACK
Jamaal Charles (Kansas City) @ Oakland – Projection: 12-62 rushing, 4-22 receiving, 1 TD
The Raiders‘ 27th ranked Swiss cheese defense surrenders 161 ypg to opposing rushers, and has given up a league high 13 rushing touchdowns. Charles could explode on any play, and should have a big day, despite sharing touches with Kolby Smith.
Mike Bell (New Orleans) @ St. Louis – Projection: 12-52 rushing, 1 TD
The Saints‘ RB1 is Pierre Thomas, and he’s a top-notch RB2 in the fantasy world. It’s the match-up that dictates this pick, as the Saints will likely be up big early, and in second half garbage time, Bell could come in for clean-up duty.
Ladell Betts (Washington) vs. Denver – Projection: 17-59 rushing, 2-19 receiving
For the record, I hate this pick. Betts is old, has a mild ankle sprain, averages 3.5 ypc over the past 3 years, has scored 1 TD in each of those seasons and already has his 1 for ’09. Still, he could see 20 touches against a tough Broncos defense.
WIDE RECEIVER
Earl Bennett (Chicago) @ San Francisco – Projection: 4-56 receiving, 1 TD
Coming off his best game of the year (11 targets, 7 catches, 93 yards), Bennett is finally showing signs of why he was considered a preseason sleeper darling. He’s still looking for his first score, and I’m betting it’s in this week’s Thursday night special.
Andre Caldwell (Cincinnati) @ Pittsburgh – Projection: 4-45 receiving, 1 TD
With Chris Henry’s season-ending injury, Caldwell’s targets should increase slightly, and his reception totals should go up accordingly. He has 3 scores on the season; 2 against Baltimore, the other against the Steelers.
Mike Wallace (Pittsburgh) vs. Cincinnati – Projection: 3-55 receiving
I don’t know why Wallace is owned in less than 50% of Yahoo! Public Leagues and fewer than 20% of ESPN leagues, especially after his Monday night performance. He’s a lock for at least 50 yards, and could score for the 3rd straight week.
TIGHT END
Brandon Pettigrew (Detroit) @ Minnesota – Projection: 6-72 receiving
The Vikings will be hanging all over whichever Lions QB starts (Matthew Stafford or Daunte Culpepper), and Pettigrew is sure to see several dump-offs. One of those could result in a TD, if the Lions get that deep into Viking territory.
KICKER
Sebastian Janikowski (Oakland) vs. Kansas City – Projection: 2 FG, 2 PAT (1 FG 40+)
This is a battle of two terrible defenses and two lowly offenses. The winner? Both teams’ kickers, who could put up very similar lines. I’ll take my chances on Janikowski (for leagues that give bonuses for long distance kicks).
DEFENSE
Tennessee Titans vs. Buffalo – Projection: 17 points allowed, 3 sacks, 2 Int
The entire Tennessee team has newfound life since their bye and the insertion of Vince Young into the starting lineup. Their defense isn’t as bad as the rankings would suggest (32nd pass, 18th rush), and Buffalo’s offense is plain dismal.
Week 9 Sleeper Results: Back in Business
Posted: November 11, 2009
After a few down weeks in Sleepertown, the Shack has pulled out of the projection recession and is back in business. Here are the results for Week 9:
QUARTERBACK (2 for 2)
Alex Smith – From a fantasy points perspective, Smith was nearly in line with his projection.
Projected: 22-34, 235 yards, 2 TD, 1 Int
Actual: 29-45, 286 yards, 2 TD, 3 Int, 1 fumble lost, 2-11 rushing
Matt Cassel – A 4th quarter rally (that fell short) boosted Cassel’s numbers considerably.
Projected: 19-33, 205 yards, 2 TD
Actual: 23-39, 262 yards, 2 TD
RUNNING BACK (1 for 2, 1 push)
Jamaal Charles – 20 touches seemed a lock, but he ended with just 9 because the Chiefs were forced to throw.
Projected: 18-85 rushing, 4-23 receiving, 1 TD
Actual: 6-36 rushing, 3-19 receiving, 2-pt conversion
Ryan Moats – The fantasy numbers were a mere point off, aside from the fumble.
Projected: 12-47 rushing, 2-16 receiving, 1 TD
Actual: 16-38 rushing, 3-15 receiving, 1 TD, 1 fumble lost
Donald Brown – Practiced in full when the Sleepers were released, and then had a setback. Push.
Projected: 8-33 rushing, 1-9 receiving, 1 TD
Actual: DNP
WIDE RECEIVER (0 for 3)
Michael Crabtree – Was targeted 8 times, but hauled in far fewer than expected.
Projected: 6-74, TD
Actual: 3-30
Mike Thomas – Not quite the type of game we expected.
Projected: 6-72
Actual: 1-(-)2 receiving, 1-18 rushing
Mark Clayton – See above note for Mike Thomas.
Projected: 4-63
Actual: 1-15
TIGHT END (0 for 1)
Fred Davis – A Redskin TE caught a TD on Sunday, it just wasn’t Davis.
Projected: 4-39, 1 TD
Actual: 2-26
KICKER (1 for 1)
Olindo Mare – Doubled the expected field goal output, and thus, outperformed the projection.
Projected: 2 FG, 3 PAT
Actual: 4 FG, 2 PAT
DEFENSE (1 for 1)
Seattle Seahawks – Gave up more points than expected, but caused turnovers and scored a defensive TD.
Projected: 13 points allowed, 4 sacks, 1 fumble recovery
Actual: 20 points allowed, 2 sacks, 5 Int, 1 TD
Scorecard for Week 9: 5 for 10, 1 push
Overall Scorecard for 2009 Season: 34 for 94, 5 pushes (36%)
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