Sleepers of the Week: Week 9
Posted: November 5, 2009
Week 9 brings some intriguing story lines to the table: Quarterbacks reviving their careers, backup running backs getting their shots, receivers making their names known and a defense looking to pitch its 3rd home shutout. Not everyone who fits into those categories is mentioned below — sorry, again, Vince Young — but some are solid plays. Here are the Sleepers for Week 9:
QUARTERBACK
Alex Smith vs. Tennessee – Projection: 22-34, 235 yards, 2 TD, 1 Int
Smith has resurrected his career in just 6 quarters of play, and he has some good weapons around him (Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree). Tennessee shut Jacksonville down last week, but still ranks dead last in the league against the pass.
Matt Cassel @ Jacksonville – Projection: 19-33, 205 yards, 2 TD
The Jags’ pass D played well last week, but it was against Vince Young. Don’t expect a repeat in Week 9. Chris Chambers joins the Chiefs, but may not see many snaps. However, Jamaal Charles gets his first start of the year and should provide a spark.
RUNNING BACK
Jamaal Charles @ Jacksonville – Projection: 18-85 rushing, 4-23 receiving, 1 TD
As mentioned above, Charles is getting his first start of the year and should give the Chiefs’ offense a jolt. He’s averaged 5 ypc, in limited touches, but is extremely explosive and is good for 20+ touches this week.
Ryan Moats @ Indianapolis – Projection: 12-47 rushing, 2-16 receiving, 1 TD
It stands to be seen how the Moats/Slaton split goes from here on, but you can bet after last week’s performance (151 total yards, 3 TD) Moats will get at least half the RB touches in Week 9, and could get even more if Slaton puts the ball on the turf again.
Donald Brown vs. Houston – Projection: 8-33 rushing, 1-9 receiving, 1 TD
Brown practiced on Wednesday, but monitor his status as the week progresses. Addai will get the bulk of the work, but Brown will get his touches, and has shown a propensity for making big plays. Of note: Houston has allowed 11 rushing TD.
WIDE RECEIVER
Michael Crabtree vs. Tennessee – Projection: 6-74, 1 TD
Crabtree runs great routes, has terrific hands and already seems to understand the 49ers’ playbook. The Titans are getting their secondary back together, but they’re the worst in the league in passing yards surrendered per game (282) and passing TD (19).
Mike Thomas vs. Kansas City – Projection: 6-72
It’s hard to explain what happened in the Jacksonville/Tennessee game, as the league’s 2 worst pass defenses shut each other down, but Thomas caught 4 balls for 55 yards. He gets consistent looks (15 in 2 games) and returns kicks, so a TD is possible.
Mark Clayton @ Cincinnati – Projection: 4-63
In Weeks 5 and 6, before the Ravens’ bye, Clayton was targeted 7 and 8 times, respectively, but got only 4 looks last week against Denver. He has the ability to break one, and the Bengals are 30th versus the pass.
TIGHT END
Fred Davis @ Atlanta – Projection: 4-39, 1 TD
Davis has the athleticism to make some great plays, and in that regard, Washington won’t miss Chris Cooley. They will, however, miss Cooley’s blocking ability. Davis’ insufficiency in that category could cost him some snaps.
KICKER
Olindo Mare vs. Detroit – Projection: 2 FG, 3 PAT
Mare and the Seahawks face a Detroit defense that allows the second most ppg in the league (29.3). Last time the Seahawks matched up against a defense this bad (Jacksonville, Week 5) Mare booted 2 FG and 5 PAT.
DEFENSE
Seattle Seahawks vs. Detroit – Projection: 13 points allowed, 4 sacks, 1 fumble recovery
At home this year, Seattle has pitched 2 shutouts (St. Louis, Jacksonville). They don’t force a lot of turnovers (9), but Detroit’s top 3 offensive players (Calvin Johnson, Kevin Smith and Matthew Stafford) are hobbled, so Seattle should dominate.
Who are your sleepers for Week 9? Leave a comment, and see how you match up against the Shack.
Sleepers of the Week: Week 1
Posted: September 10, 2009
Each week during the NFL season, I will predict my sleepers for the upcoming games, reaching into the bag to find the gems that could help you on your way to a W. Here are the sleepers for week 1:
QUARTERBACK
- Carson Palmer Projection: 25-39, 315 yards, 3 TD, 1 Int
Palmer faces a Denver D who ranked 26th against the pass in 2008 (without the services of All-Pro DB Champ Bailey for much of the year). Even with Bailey, Denver is shaky. Palmer is healthy, his receivers are capable and Cinci’s running game is meager, so this should become an aerial show.
- Matt Hasselbeck Projection: 21-31, 275 yards, 2 TD
Despite a questionable O-line, the Seattle offense is my prediction to surprise in week 1. Against a poor St. Louis D (28th in total yards allowed in ’08), Hasselbeck should return to the form that made him a top QB option as recently as 2007.
RUNNING BACK
- Ray Rice Projection: 21 carries, 114 yards, 4 receptions, 30 yards, 1 total TD
Rice has been given the lead role for Baltimore, a team that averaged 37 carries/gm in 2008. McGahee and McClain will get there touches, but against an awful KC defense (30th against the run in ’08) Rice should easily eclipse 100 yards.
- Fred Jackson Projection: 26 carries, 106 yards, 3 receptions, 22 yards, 1 total TD
With Marshawn Lynch suspended for the first 3 games of ’09, Jackson is the man. Against New England in week 17 last year, Jackson went for 27-136. I don’t expect quite the yardage production, but 100+ and a score is very realistic.
- Julius Jones Projection: 19 carries, 94 yards, 2 receptions, 15 yards, 1 total TD
Reminder: Seattle’s offense is a week 1 sleeper. The Rams ranked 29th against the run in ’08. Edgerrin James is slated for “at least 5 carries”, but Jones will get the bulk of the work. If he can get into the 22-25 carry range, it’s an easy 100 yards.
WIDE RECEIVER
- Anthony Gonzalez Projection: 7 catches, 103 yards, 1 TD
Everyone knows Gonzalez is now the #2 receiver in Indy. Big things are expected. Manning will look his way (a lot) out of the gates against a Jacksonville D that ranked 24th against the pass last year.
- Kevin Walter Projection: 6 catches, 95 yards, 1 TD
Like Gonzalez, Walter is the #2 in a high-powered passing attack. Also like Gonzalez, his match-up would dictate potential success: Jets 29th vs. pass in 2008. Despite the hamstring injury, Walter expects to play. Andre Johnson is the man, but Walter will be leaned on in single-coverage.
- Chris Henry (Cin) Projection: 5 catches, 93 yards, 1 TD
Palmer is going to go off against Denver. Coles and Ochocinco – despite being matched-up with Bailey – will get their catches, but Henry is going to make a statement. Count on it.
TIGHT END
- John Carlson Projection: 5 catches, 70 yards, 1 TD
I continue to jock the Seahawks. Now watch them get shut out. But seriously, Hasselbeck will be solid, and the running game will open things up for the passing attack. Carlson is as solid a week 1 play as there is at the position.
KICKER
- Josh Brown Projection: 3 FG (1 40+ yard, 1 50+ yard), 1 PAT
Seattle’s defense will not be one of the top units in the NFL in 2009, and aside from Steven Jackson, the Rams’ offense is as dismal as they come. The combination of the two should mean a fair amount of work for Brown.
DEFENSE
- Houston Texans Projection: 13 points allowed, 2 sacks, 1 Int, 1 forced fumble
Their 2008 numbers wouldn’t dictate success, but against a moderate, conservative Jets offense, and with some key additions to an underrated unit, the Texans have a favorable match-up.
Extras: 2008 Offensive Rankings, 2008 Defensive Rankings, 2009 Depth Charts
Just the Stats: 2009 Defense/Special Team Rankings
Justin Tuck: A QB's Nightmare
Posted: September 5, 2009
| TEAM | Bye | Week 14-15-16 |
| New York Giants | 10 | Phi, @Was, Car |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 8 | @Cle, GB, Bal |
| Minnesota Vikings | 9 | Cin, @Car, @Chi |
| Baltimore Ravens | 7 | Det, Chi, @Pit |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 4 | @NYG, SF, Den |
| New York Jets | 9 | @TB, Atl, @Ind |
| San Diego Chargers | 5 | @Dal, Cin, @Ten |
| Dallas Cowboys | 6 | SD, @NO, @Was |
| Chicago Bears | 5 | GB, @Bal, Min |
| Tennessee Titans | 7 | StL, Mia, SD |
| Washington Redskins | 8 | @Oak, NYG, Dal |
| New England Patriots | 8 | Car, @Buf, Jac |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8 | NYJ, @Sea, @NO |
| Miami Dolphins | 6 | @Jac,@Ten,Hou |
| Indianapolis Colts | 6 | Den, @Jac, NYJ |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 8 | @Min, @SD, KC |
| Carolina Panthers | 4 | @NE, Min, @NYG |
| Green Bay Packers | 5 | @Chi, @Pit, Sea |
| Arizona Cardinals | 4 | @SF, @Det, StL |
| Houston Texans | 10 | Sea, @StL, @Mia |
| Buffalo Bills | 9 | @KC, NE, @Atl |
| San Francisco 49ers | 6 | Ari, @Phi, Det |
| New Orleans Saints | 5 | @Atl, Dal, TB |
| Seattle Seahawks | 7 | SF, @Hou, TB |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 7 | Mia, Ind, @NE |
| Denver Broncos | 7 | @Ind, Oak, @Phi |
| Atlanta Falcons | 4 | NO, @NYJ, Buf |
| Oakland Raiders | 9 | Was,@Den,@Cle |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 8 | Buf, Cle, @Cin |
| Cleveland Browns | 9 | Pit, @KC, Oak |
| St. Louis Rams | 9 | @Ten, Hou, @Ari |
| Detroit Lions | 7 | @Bal, Ari, @SF |
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