Fantasy Sports Shack

The stuff to help you win a fantasy title

NFL Playoffs 2011-NFC Divisional Match-ups

By Brian McGee

Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears:
The Earth shaking Seahawks are trying to prove the World wrong again.  They will be on the road in this game in a very cold environment.  The forecast — to be in the mid to high 20′s, with a chance of snow shower — should prove an advantage for the Chicago Bears.  Matt Hasselback decided to play like a Hall of Fame QB and beat the defending champs last week in their wild card match-up.  During the season he threw 12 touchdowns and 17 interceptions, but against the Saints last week he threw 4 touchdowns to only 1 interception.  He had a passer rating of 113, a touch better than his average rating for the season of 73.  After the phenomenal run of Marshawn Lynch that almost brought the town of Seattle to rubble, the Seahawks must be taken more seriously.  If the Bears think they will be able to control them with their defense and have Cutler get the ball in the end zone, they could be in for a shock.  With that being said, this is the best match-up that Bears could have asked for.  They have earned their home field advantage, although it was through a lesser schedule than most teams.  They will need the accuracy of Cutler to return and to use the versatility of Matt Forte early and often to move the chains.  The Bears “D” will not allow 41 points to be posted up on them; they are rested and ready to get their run into the playoffs.  Look for a controlled run/pass attack and a fierce defense from the Bears to end the Seahawks hopes for another shocking win.
Bears win 24-17

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons
Matt Ryan does not lose at the Georgia Dome.  Aaron Rodgers loves to win in hostile settings.  It’s a battle of phenomenal young QB’s, one a little more seasoned than the other.  The Falcons and Ryan have been proving people wrong every week of the season; they have proven how dominant their defense can be and how poised their young quarterback is.  This is the game that I would watch if their was only one game that I could.  I want to see how Rodgers finds throwing room against the Falcons and how well Jennings can respond with a mediocre performance last week.  The Packers dropped a couple crucial balls last week, especially at the end of the half when James Jones used his frying pan hands and missed a scoring opportunity.  With a lot of offensive possibilities in this game, the key to whomever wins will once again be a defensive stop in the final 2 minutes.  Whatever team will come through and muster up that little extra on defense will win the game. I am very excited for this game, and I hope it lives up to the hype I am giving it.  Two great duos with Rodgers and Jennings and Ryan and White.  Fantastic defenses playing at the highest level, not many things can top playoff football.
Packers win 27-24

January 15, 2011 Posted by | Game of the Week, Just the Stats, Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment

2009 Season Wrap-Up

Posted: January 16, 2010

The 2009 fantasy football season kicked off with only one certainty: Adrian Peterson would be the top pick in most drafts.  However, looking back on the year that was, were we all to journey back to the summer and redraft our teams, some things would have gone differently.

As I mentioned in the Bruno Boys’ season recap edition of Fasulo’s Forecaster, Chris Johnson, the consensus hypothetical redraft number one pick, ran away, literally, with fantasy MVP honors (2,006 rushing yards, 503 receiving yards, 16 touchdowns).  Ray Rice, in this writer’s opinion, was a solid second (2,041 yards from scrimmage, 8 touchdowns), and Aaron Rodgers was third.  Rodgers’ 4,434 yards, 30 touchdowns (to only 7 interceptions), 316 rushing yards and 5 rushing scores were nothing to scoff at, but Johnson outscored Rodgers in standard scoring leagues, and Rice’s draft value was superior to that of the All-Pro QB — chances are, Rice was a mid-round pick in your league.

All-in-all, 2009 was one hell of a season.  A couple old dogs (30+ year-old running backs) proved age to be  just a number, as Ricky Williams ran for over 1,100 yards at age 32 and Thomas Jones topped 1,400 at 31.  Both had double digit touchdowns, 11 and 14, respectively.  A couple more old dogs proved the adage that once a running back hits 30, the end comes quickly.  Despite 12 rushing touchdowns, 30 year-old LaDainian Tomlinson managed only 730 yards on the ground, with a career low average of 3.3 yard-per-carry.  30 year-old Brian Westbrook lost most of the season to concussions, but in eight games, totaled just 455 yards and 2 scores.  The Philadelphia Eagles have a 2010 in-house replacement for Westbrook in rookie running back LeSean McCoy (637 rushing yards, 308 receiving yards, 4 TD), but chances are, the San Diego Chargers will look elsewhere for tailback help, as Darren Sproles, though he totaled more than 800 yards and scored 8 touchdowns in 2009, is likely not an every-down back.

Aside from Rice, Williams and Jones, there were a few more running back surprises in 2009… for the worse.  Matt Forte, a top ten draft pick, finished the season with 929 rushing yards, 471 receiving yards and 4 scores, a respectable line for a mid-round draft pick, a horrific line for a RB1 who is supposed to carry your fantasy team.  Steve Slaton, a first/second round pick, caused even more fantasy damage, as his fumble-itus found him on the real world bench, and though he got back into the mix toward the end of the year before suffering an injury, his final stat-line left much to be desired: 437 rushing yards, 417 receiving yards, 7 TD.

While some players were disappointing this year, others were exceptional.  Dallas Cowboys‘ wide receiver Miles Austin broke out in Week 6 to the tune of 250 yards and 2 touchdowns, and he never looked back, finishing the season with 1,320 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns.  His fantasy total was third best among receivers, behind only Houston Texans‘ star Andre Johnson (1,569 yards, 9 TD) and New England Patriots‘ All-Pro Randy Moss (1.264 yards, 13 TD).  In San Francisco, tight end Vernon Davis catapulted his career to new levels, leading all NFL tight ends in touchdowns (13) and leading his team in receiving yards (965).  Across the country in New York, the Steve Smith who began the season known as “the other Steve Smith” made a name for himself by setting the Giants‘ single-season record for receptions (107) and amassing 1,220 receiving yards and 7 scores.  (Side note: Though they both finished with 7 touchdowns, the Giants’ Steve Smith out-gained Carolina Panthers’ Steve Smith by 238 receiving yards.)  In Minnesota, Brett Favre revitalized his career again, and the career of third-year wideout Sidney Rice took off.  Rice, left undrafted in some leagues, finished the season with 1,312 receiving yards and 8 scores.

All across the board, 2009 was another great season in fantasy football land.  Here is a look at the Fantasy Sports Shack accolades (lists) for the 2009 fantasy football season, and the top 30 Keepers for 2010:

MVP

Player Position Team Stats
1 Chris Johnson RB Titans 2,006 rush yds, 503 rec yds, 16 TD, 3 fum
2 Ray Rice RB Ravens 1,339 rush yds, 702 rec yds, 8 TD, 3 fum
3 Aaron Rodgers QB Packers 4,434 pass yds, 30 TD, 7 INT, 316 rush yds, 5 rush TD, 4 fum
4 Drew Brees QB Saints 4,388 pass yds, 34 TD, 11 INT, 33 rush yds, 2 rush TD, 6 fum
5 Peyton Manning QB Colts 4,500 pass yds, 33 TD, 16 INT
6 Maurice Jones-Drew RB Jaguars 1,391 rush yds, 374 rec yds, 16 TD, 1 fum
7 Adrian Peterson RB Vikings 1,383 rush yds, 436 rec yds, 18 TD, 6 fum
8 Thomas Jones RB Jets 1,402 rush yds, 58 rec yds, 14 TD
9 Andre Johnson WR Texans 1,569 rec yds, 9 TD, 10 rush yds
10 Miles Austin WR Cowboys 1,320 rec yds, 11 TD

TOP ROOKIE

Player Position Team Stats
1 Knowshon Moreno RB Broncos 947 rush yds, 213 rec yds, 9 TD, 4 fum
2 Percy Harvin WR Vikings 790 rec yds, 135 rush yds, 8 TD
3 Beanie Wells RB Cardinals 793 rush yds, 143 rec yds, 7 TD, 2 fum
4 Hakeem Nicks WR Giants 790 rec yds, 8 rush yds, 6 TD
5 LeSean McCoy RB Eagles 637 rush yds, 308 rec yds, 4 TD, 1 fum
6 Mike Wallace WR Steelers 756 rec yds, 48 rush yds, 6 TD, 1 fum
7 Austin Collie WR Colts 676 rec yds, 7 TD
8 Jeremy Maclin WR Eagles 762 rec yds, 4 TD
9 Kenny Britt WR Titans 701 rec yds, 3 TD, 1 fum
10 Michael Crabtree WR 49ers 625 rec yds, 2 TD, 1 fum

TOP KEEPERS FOR 2010

Player Position Team Reason
1 Chris Johnson RB Titans As if 2,500 yards and 16 TD wasn’t enough, he’s only 24.
2 Adrian Peterson RB Vikings He’ll only be 25 in 2010, and has lots of miles left on those tires.
3 Maurice Jones-Drew RB Jaguars First year as full-time RB1 a success, look for him to do more of the same in 2010 and beyond.
4 Ray Rice RB Ravens 2009′s FSS MVP runner-up has proven he’s for real.
5 Aaron Rodgers QB Packers 2009′s top fantasy QB just turned 26 years-old.
6 Andre Johnson WR Texans The 28 year-old All-Pro is at the top of his game for a team on the rise.
7 Drew Brees QB Saints The leader of the league’s most prolific offense has a few good sesaons left in his arm.
8 Frank Gore RB 49ers This may seem like a high ranking, but he’s the centerpiece of a blossoming offense.
9 Larry Fitzgerald WR Cardinals 13 touchdowns in 2009 for arguably the best receiver in football.
10 DeSean Jackson WR Eagles The guy just makes huge plays, and he’s still getting better.
11 Steven Jackson RB Rams At 26, he is the best player on one of the worst teams in football, and he still managed 1,416 rush yards.
12 Jamaal Charles RB Chiefs A stretch? Maybe. But in the second half of ’09, the only RB better was Chris Johnson.
13 Peyton Manning QB Colts He’ll be 34 next season, but his style of play dictates success for years to come.
14 Beanie Wells RB Cardinals Likely locked in a timeshare again in 2010, but this time, he’s the man.
15 Jonathan Stewart RB Panthers Like Wells, Stewart shares time, but coming into his third year, he’s set to take on a bigger load.
16 Vernon Davis TE 49ers Apologies to Clark, Gates and Gonzalez, but Davis is just entering his prime and could potentially put up WR1 numbers.
17 Philip Rivers QB Chargers Uncertainty at RB, Rivers may have to throw more in 2010.
18 Miles Austin WR Cowboys Can he do it again in 2010? It’s worth a gamble.
19 Knowshon Moreno RB Broncos Likely to take on a bigger workload from here on.
20 Percy Harvin WR Vikings Again, might seem like a stretch, but this guy is lightning in a bottle.
21 Vincent Jackson WR Chargers Disappeared for a bit down the stretch, but still one of the top young receivers in the game.
22 Rashard Mendenhall RB Steelers He’s taken over as the RB1, and year three should prove fruitful.
23 Matt Forte RB Bears A sophomore slump can be blamed on his team’s lack of receivers. Look for a rebound in 2010.
24 Brandon Marshall WR Broncos His talent is undeniable, but his attitude sometimes holds him back.
25 Roddy White WR Falcons Matt Ryan will be ready to go in 2010, and White will reap the benefits.
26 Greg Jennings WR Packers Donald Driver isn’t getting any younger, and despite a “down” 2009, Jennings is just hitting his stride.
27 Matt Schaub QB Texans It feels like his fantasy owners dodged a bullet with an injury-free ’09, but his potential is worth the risk.
28 Reggie Wayne WR Colts Next year, Pierre Garcon’s name could be here instead, but for now, Wayne is still the man in Indy.
29 Calvin Johnson WR Lions As he builds a rapport with Stafford, the numbers are sure to go way up.
30 Shonn Greene RB Jets Greene has shown flashes, and will be ready to step in when Jones’ tires inevitably go flat.

Thank you, my faithful followers, for a great 2009.  Keep your eyes out for the Fantasy Sports Shack’s baseball coverage, which will start in the near future, and come back next August for more Fantasy Sports Shack football coverage!  (Though, I’m sure there will be a few topics for discussion between now and then.)

January 16, 2010 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment

Just the Stats: 2009 Running Back Projections

Posted: September 5, 2009

The “Overall” Running Back fantasy score is determined for leagues using the following  scoring system: 10 rushing yards = 1 point, TD run = 6 points, 100+ yard rushing game = 6 points, 10 receiving yards = 1 point, TD reception = 6 points, Fumble = -2 points.

PLAYER Age O-Ln Bye Week 14-15-16 Ru Yd
 Avg Ru TD
 100+ Rc Yd
 Rc TD
 Fm OVERALL
Adrian Peterson (Min) 24 Plus 9 Cin, @Car, @Chi 1,550 5.2 15 8 150 0 4 300
Maurice Jones-Drew 24 Even 7 Mia, Ind, @NE 1,250 4.5 14 4 500 2 3 289
Matt Forte 23 Plus 5 GB, @Bal, Min 1,250 4.0 9 3 450 3 1 258
Michael Turner 27 Plus 4 NO, @NYJ, Buf 1,400 4.4 14 5 40 0 2 254
LaDainian Tomlinson 30 Even 5 @Dal, Cin, @Ten 1,150 3.8 12 3 400 1 0 251
DeAngelo Williams 26 Plus 4 @NE, Min, @NYG 1,250 5.1 12 4 175 1 0 245
Steve Slaton 23 Plus 10 Sea, @StL, @Mia 1,200 4.5 9 5 375 1 2 244
Steven Jackson 26 Minus 9 @Ten, Hou, @Ari 1,150 4.1 8 4 350 1 3 222
Chris Johnson (Ten) 23 Plus 7 StL, Mia, SD 1,200 4.6 8 4 250 1 1 221
Knowshon Moreno 22 Plus 7 @Ind, Oak, @Phi 1,100 4.4 8 4 300 2 2 220
Brandon Jacobs 27 Plus 10 Phi, @Was, Car 1,050 5.0 14 4 50 0 2 214
Darren McFadden 22 Minus 9 Was,@Den,@Cle 1,050 4.4 7 3 400 2 2 213
Clinton Portis 27 Minus 8 @Oak, NYG, Dal 1,250 4.1 8 4 200 0 4 209
Frank Gore 26 Minus 6 Ari, @Phi, Det 1,100 4.3 6 3 425 1 3 207
Pierre Thomas 24 Plus 5 @Atl, Dal, TB 900 4.8 9 2 350 3 1 207
Brian Westbrook 29 Plus 4 @NYG, SF, Den 900 4.2 7 3 400 3 1 206
Marion Barber 26 Plus 6 SD, @NO, @Was 900 4.3 8 3 325 2 2 197
Kevin Smith 22 Minus 7 @Bal, Ari, @SF 1,000 4.0 8 2 275 1 1 192
Ryan Grant 26 Even 5 @Chi, @Pit, Sea 1,150 4.3 6 4 125 1 3 188
Beanie Wells 21 Minus 4 @SF, @Det, StL 950 3.9 10 3 75 0 2 177
Joseph Addai 26 Even 6 Den, @Jac, NYJ 850 4.2 7 2 275 2 1 176
Thomas Jones 31 Plus 9 @TB, Atl, @Ind 1,000 4.0 6 3 175 1 1 176
Derrick Ward 29 Plus 8 NYJ, @Sea, @NO 950 5.1 3 3 350 1 0 172
Jonathan Stewart 22 Plus 4 @NE, Min, @NYG 900 4.5 11 2 50 0 1 171
Larry Johnson 29 Minus 8 Buf, Cle, @Cin 1,000 4.3 6 3 100 1 1 168
Ronnie Brown 27 Plus 6 @Jac,@Ten,Hou 850 4.4 6 3 275 0 1 165
Donald Brown 22 Even 6 Den, @Jac, NYJ 800 4.4 6 2 250 2 2 161
Ahmad Bradshaw 23 Plus 10 Phi, @Was, Car 800 5.1 4 2 300 2 0 158
Marshawn Lynch 23 Minus 9 @KC, NE, @Atl 900 4.1 6 2 200 0 1 156
Ray Rice 22 Plus 7 Det, Chi, @Pit 850 4.2 4 2 300 1 2 153
Reggie Bush 24 Plus 5 @Atl, Dal, TB 550 3.7 4 0 450 3 2 150
Felix Jones 22 Plus 6 SD, @NO, @Was 800 5.0 5 1 250 1 1 145
Tim Hightower 23 Minus 4 @SF, @Det, StL 600 3.5 5 1 350 2 0 143
Willie Parker 28 Minus 8 @Cle, GB, Bal 900 3.9 5 3 50 0 2 139
LenDale White 24 Plus 7 StL, Mia, SD 750 3.8 10 0 20 0 3 131
Willis McGahee 27 Plus 7 Det, Chi, @Pit 700 3.9 6 2 170 0 2 131
Jamal Lewis 30 Even 9 Pit, @KC, Oak 900 3.6 4 1 125 0 1 131
Julius Jones 28 Minus 7 SF, @Hou, TB 850 4.0 3 2 125 0 1 126
Laurence Maroney 24 Plus 8 Car, @Buf, Jac 700 3.8 5 1 150 1 1 125
Fred Jackson 28 Minus 9 @KC, NE, @Atl 650 4.6 4 1 300 0 1 123
Cedric Benson 26 Minus 8 @Min, @SD, KC 700 3.7 4 2 150 0 2 117
Rashard Mendenhall 22 Minus 8 @Cle, GB, Bal 700 4.1 6 1 75 0 3 114
LeSean McCoy 21 Plus 4 @NYG, SF, Den 600 4.5 2 1 250 2 1 113
Earnest Graham 29 Plus 8 NYJ, @Sea, @NO 650 4.1 4 1 200 0 2 111
Darren Sproles 26 Even 5 @Dal, Cin, @Ten 500 5.1 2 0 300 3 0 110
Chester Taylor 29 Plus 9 Cin, @Car, @Chi 500 4.4 4 0 325 1 2 109
Jerious Norwood 26 Plus 4 NO, @NYJ, Buf 550 5.0 3 0 300 1 1 107
Le’Ron McClain 24 Plus 7 Det, Chi, @Pit 500 3.8 8 0 80 0 1 104
Jamaal Charles 22 Minus 8 Buf, Cle, @Cin 500 4.5 2 1 300 1 2 100
Bernard Scott 25 Minus 8 @Min, @SD, KC 600 4.1 3 1 100 0 1 92
Michael Bush 25 Minus 9 Was,@Den,@Cle 500 4.3 4 0 180 0 1 90
James Davis 23 Even 9 Pit, @KC, Oak 450 4.5 3 1 100 0 1 77
Correll Buckhalter 30 Plus 7 @Ind, Oak, @Phi 400 4.0 2 0 200 1 1 76
Glen Coffee 22 Minus 6 Ari, @Phi, Det 400 4.3 2 1 75 0 1 64
Shonn Greene 24 Plus 9 @TB, Atl, @Ind 350 4.2 4 0 50 0 1 62
Justin Fargas 29 Minus 9 Was,@Den,@Cle
Mewelde Moore 27 Minus 8 @Cle, GB, Bal
Fred Taylor 33 Plus 8 Car, @Buf, Jac
Tashard Choice 24 Plus 6 SD, @NO, @Was
Jerome Harrison 26 Even 9 Pit, @KC, Oak
Brandon Jackson 23 Even 5 @Chi, @Pit, Sea
Rashad Jennings 24 Even 7 Mia, Ind, @NE 300 4.2 2 0 50 0 0 47
Peyton Hillis 23 Plus 7 @Ind, Oak, @Phi
Cadillac Williams 27 Plus 8 NYJ, @Sea, @NO

September 5, 2009 Posted by | Just the Stats | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment

Impact Rookies

Posted: September 3, 2009

It’s commonly known that every year a handful of rookies explode onto the scene to become fantasy stars.  Traditionally, it’s the rookie running back who climbs to the top of the rubble, but occasionally, a receiver, tight end or quarterback makes his name known.

Let’s look at last year’s success stories with an average 2009 ADP in the top 100 (per Yahoo!):

Matt Forte (Chi) RB   ADP: 5.3
Chris Johnson (Ten) RB   ADP: 15.3
Steve Slaton (Hou) RB   ADP: 17.6
Kevin Smith (Det) RB   ADP: 56
Eddie Royal (Den) WR   ADP: 66.1
DeSean Jackson (Phi) WR   ADP: 72.7
Matt Ryan (Atl) QB   ADP: 79.4
Jonathan Stewart (Car) RB   ADP: 85.3

Finding the cream of the rookie crop is the single most exciting thing in fantasy sports; even more rewarding than guessing right on a twelfth round sleeper who turns into a Pro-Bowler.  Okay, maybe that’s stretching it, but the truth is, a rookie can put your team over the top and help win your league.  But we wary: a rookie is an unknown commodity.  Not everyone is Adrian Peterson or Matt Forte.  Just ask 2008 Darren McFadden owners, or Rashard Mendenhall owners, or Felix Jones owners…  You get the picture.

So which rookies are worth the risk in 2009? Here’s how they stack up:

Running Backs

The knee injury and resulting lack of preseason time are a concern, but Moreno is the most all-around back in the 2009 class and Denver’s clear-cut top option, if healthy.

Injuries are a concern, and his lack of receiving ability is an issue, but he is a beast and is easily the best runner on the Cardinals.

Locked in a time-share with Joseph Addai, Brown has the skill-set to excel and potentially wind up the lead back by season’s end.  Watch out if Addai gets hurt.

Brian Westbrook is the starter, but McCoy will get significant touches and be a star if Westbrook goes down.

Scott has the skills and has had a decent preseason.  Cedric Benson is the only thing standing between him and a chance to shine.  When Benson falters, Scott is the add.

Davis has proven his potential in the preseason, and if he’s given a legit chance, ahead of Harrison, to succeed Jamal Lewis – who will, inevitably fall off a cliff – he will flourish, and could put up BIG numbers.

Coffee may have done his best running in the preseason, as Frank Gore is the man in San Francisco.  If Gore gets dinged up, Coffee will hit the ground running.

Sit back and wait.  Thomas Jones and Leon Washington are the Jets’ top options, and the preseason rib injury might linger, but Greene is a nice complement who should see an increased workload as the season progresses.

Not enough preseason work to judge by, and Maurice Jones-Drew is a top 5 fantasy option.  The only way Jennings gets a serious look is if MJD blows a tire.

Wide Receivers

Inconsistent in the preseason, but the Vikings are finding ways to get him the ball.

Solid preseason could vault him into more playing time, which would mean he exceeds these mild expectations.

The offense is deep, but he’s too talented not to succeed.  Solid preseason will translate.

Like his quarterbacks, he’s battling for playing time.

While Nate Washington recovers, he’ll start opposite Justin Gage in one of the weakest passing offenses in football.

The Raiders will force-feed the top receiver selected in the 2009 NFL draft, and then scratch their heads and wonder why they picked him.

Talk about a wasted pick.  Crabtree could have been a candidate for top rookie receiver honors, but he’ll likely sit out the season.  Even if he does sign, he won’t be a factor.

Quarterbacks

Sanchez has been handed the keys to the Jets’ franchise, and will be given every opportunity to succeed.  Expect Joe Flacco numbers, not Matt Ryan.  Slight bump up if they manage to acquire Brandon Marshall.

Uneven preseason, but if Culpepper’s odd injury thrusts April’s top pick into a starting role, he has a few weapons at his disposal.  Regardless, he should be starting by midseason.  Avoid him, if at all possible.

Tight Ends

The best bet of the rookie tight ends to make his mark, but unlikely to make a fantasy difference in ’09.

September 3, 2009 Posted by | Impact Rookies | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment

   

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