NFL Playoffs 2011-NFC Divisional Match-ups
By Brian McGee
Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears:
The Earth shaking Seahawks are trying to prove the World wrong again. They will be on the road in this game in a very cold environment. The forecast — to be in the mid to high 20′s, with a chance of snow shower — should prove an advantage for the Chicago Bears. Matt Hasselback decided to play like a Hall of Fame QB and beat the defending champs last week in their wild card match-up. During the season he threw 12 touchdowns and 17 interceptions, but against the Saints last week he threw 4 touchdowns to only 1 interception. He had a passer rating of 113, a touch better than his average rating for the season of 73. After the phenomenal run of Marshawn Lynch that almost brought the town of Seattle to rubble, the Seahawks must be taken more seriously. If the Bears think they will be able to control them with their defense and have Cutler get the ball in the end zone, they could be in for a shock. With that being said, this is the best match-up that Bears could have asked for. They have earned their home field advantage, although it was through a lesser schedule than most teams. They will need the accuracy of Cutler to return and to use the versatility of Matt Forte early and often to move the chains. The Bears “D” will not allow 41 points to be posted up on them; they are rested and ready to get their run into the playoffs. Look for a controlled run/pass attack and a fierce defense from the Bears to end the Seahawks hopes for another shocking win.
Bears win 24-17
Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons
Matt Ryan does not lose at the Georgia Dome. Aaron Rodgers loves to win in hostile settings. It’s a battle of phenomenal young QB’s, one a little more seasoned than the other. The Falcons and Ryan have been proving people wrong every week of the season; they have proven how dominant their defense can be and how poised their young quarterback is. This is the game that I would watch if their was only one game that I could. I want to see how Rodgers finds throwing room against the Falcons and how well Jennings can respond with a mediocre performance last week. The Packers dropped a couple crucial balls last week, especially at the end of the half when James Jones used his frying pan hands and missed a scoring opportunity. With a lot of offensive possibilities in this game, the key to whomever wins will once again be a defensive stop in the final 2 minutes. Whatever team will come through and muster up that little extra on defense will win the game. I am very excited for this game, and I hope it lives up to the hype I am giving it. Two great duos with Rodgers and Jennings and Ryan and White. Fantastic defenses playing at the highest level, not many things can top playoff football.
Packers win 27-24
Week 10 Sleeper Results: Yawn
Posted: November 17, 2009
Week 10 was just a ho-hum week on the Sleeper front. The QB’s came close, and a couple of the RB’s exceeded expectations, but most of the pack yielded meager returns. Here are the Sleeper results for Week 10 (and scroll to the bottom of the post for the Week 10 “Name Your Sleepers Matchup” results):
QUARTERBACK (0 for 1, 1 push)
Mark Sanchez (New York Jets) – Almost dead on with attempts/completions and yards, but off on TD and Int.
Projected: 17-31, 210 yards, 2 TD
Actual: 16-30, 212 yards, 1 TD, 2 Int
Chad Henne (Miami) – One more TD and he would have been exactly on point (fantasy points-wise).
Projected: 16-26, 195 yards, 2 TD, 1 Int
Actual: 17-31, 175 yards, 1 TD, 1 Int
RUNNING BACK (2 for 3)
Jamaal Charles (Kansas City) – Got 22 touches, and made them count.
Projected: 12-62 rushing, 4-22 receiving, 1 TD
Actual:18-103 rushing, 4-14 receiving, 1 TD
Mike Bell (New Orleans) – The Saints didn’t get out in front as expected, and Bell never really got an opportunity.
Projected: 12-52 rushing, 1 TD
Actual: 8-30 rushing
Ladell Betts (Washington) – Betts took advantage of 27 touches, and carried the Redskins to victory.
Projected: 17-59 rushing, 2-19 receiving
Actual: 26-114 rushing, 1-6 receiving, 1 TD
WIDE RECEIVER (0 for 2, 1 push)
Earl Bennett (Chicago) – Bennett had a 40 yard reception called back, and was otherwise quiet.
Projected: 4-56 receiving, 1 TD
Actual: 3-27 receiving
Andre Caldwell (Cincinnati) – Got the expected receptions, but offensive scores were nil in this one.
Projected: 4-45 receiving, 1 TD
Actual: 4-23 receiving
Mike Wallace (Pittsburgh) – Wasn’t really a fantasy factor.
Projected: 3-55 receiving
Actual: 1-16 receiving
TIGHT END (0 for 1)
Brandon Pettigrew (Detroit) – Pettigrew didn’t get the dump-off looks we expected to see.
Projected: 6-72 receiving
Actual: 2-23 receiving
KICKER (push)
Sebastian Janikowski (Oakland) – Some things you never learn — like never count on an Oakland Raider!
Projected: 2 FG, 2 PAT (1 FG 40+)
Actual: 1 FG, 1 PAT (1 FG 50+)
DEFENSE (1 for 1)
Tennessee Titans – The Titans were nearly exact on projections, and returned 2 interceptions for scores.
Projected: 17 points allowed, 3 sacks, 2 Int
Actual: 17 points allowed, 2 sacks, 2 Int, 2 TD
Scorecard for Week 10: 3 for 8, 3 push
Overall Scorecard for 2009 Season: 37 for 102, 8 pushes (36%)
NAME YOUR SLEEPERS MATCHUP: WEEK 10
Paul from peoplespigskin (4-5-2) – Fantasy Sports Shack (3-5-3)
Using the key where coming within 2 projected fantasy points equals a correct pick, and within 4 equals a push, the inaugural week of the Fantasy Sports Shack “Name Your Sleepers Matchup” ended in a victory by the visitor. The FSS results are above, and you can see Paul’s work below. Well played, Paul!
(For future competitors, remember: A Sleeper is owned in less than a majority of leagues.)
QB
Matt Cassel (Kansas City) – Projected 14, Actual 7
Matt Hasselbeck (Seattle) – Projected 14, Actual 14
RB
Fred Jackson (Buffalo) – Projected 15, Actual 11
Jamal Lewis (Cleveland) – Projected 12, Actual 3
Knowshon Moreno (Denver) – Projected 11, Actual 9
WR
Derrick Mason (Baltimore) – Projected 13, Actual 7
Sidney Rice (Minnesota) – Projected 12, Actual 20
Mike Wallace (Pittsburgh) – Projected 9, Actual 1
TE
Dustin Keller (New York Jets) – Projected 8, Actual 5
K
Rob Bironas (Tennessee) – Projected 10, Actual 11
D/ST
Atlanta Falcons – Projected 9, Actual -1
Overall Name Your Sleepers Matchup Records: Fantasy Sports Shack 0-1, Visitors 1-0
Name Your Sleepers Matchup: Week 10
Posted: November 14, 2009
In the Week 10 “Name Your Sleepers” matchup, Paul from peoplespigskin will test his skill against the Fantasy Sports Shack. Paul, some of your Sleepers are owned in better than 80 percent of leagues, but we’ll let if fly this week. Thanks for playing, and good luck!
PAUL’S PICKS
QB
Matt Cassel (Kansas City) – 14 points
Matt Hasselbeck (Seattle) – 14 points
RB
Fred Jackson (Buffalo) – 15 points
Jamal Lewis (Cleveland) – 12 points
Knowshon Moreno (Denver) – 11 points
WR
Derrick Mason (Baltimore) – 13 points
Sidney Rice (Minnesota) – 12 points
Mike Wallace (Pittsburgh) – 9 points
TE
Dustin Keller (New York Jets) – 8 points
K
Rob Bironas (Tennessee) – 10 points
D/ST
Atlanta Falcons – 9 points
FANTASY SPORTS SHACK PICKS
QB
Mark Sanchez (New York Jets) – 16 points
Chad Henne (Miami) – 13 points
RB
Jamaal Charles (Kansas City) – 14 points
Mike Bell (New Orleans) – 11 points
Ladell Betts (Washington) – 7 points
WR
Earl Bennett (Chicago) – 11 points
Andre Caldwell (Cincinnati) – 10 points
Mike Wallace (Pittsburgh) – 5 points+
TE
Brandon Pettigrew (Detroit) – 7 points
K
Sebastian Janikowski (Oakland) – 8 points
D/ST
Tennessee Titans – 9 points
For more detail on Paul’s picks, check out his comments. And click here to read the insight on the Fantasy Sports Shack Sleepers for Week 10.
Sleepers of the Week: Week 4
Posted: October 2, 2009
Bye weeks are upon us, and now is the time of the season when sleepers become really important. Who’s still out there on the free agent market/waiver wire who could help you win week-to-week? Here are the sleepers for Week 4:
QUARTERBACK
Derek Anderson vs. Cincinnati – Projection: 20-33, 230 yards, 2 TD, 1 Int 
Bold prediction of the week: Anderson jumpstarts the Browns’ offense. Sure, he was horrible last week in limited play (19 passes, 3 picks), but he’s going against a Cinci D with just 1 interception in ’09 (granted they have 10 sacks). Don’t forget, Anderson was one of the league’s top passers just 2 seasons ago (3,787 yards, 29 TD).
Shaun Hill vs. St. Louis – Projection: 17-27, 215 yards, 2 TD, 1 Int
Thus far in ’09, the Rams’ D has given up more than 400 ypg of total offense. They have just 3 sacks and 2 interceptions through 3 weeks, and thus, Shaun Hill should have time in the pocket to find open receivers.
RUNNING BACK
Glen Coffee vs. St. Louis – Projection: 24-107 rushing, 2-14 receiving, 1 TD 
Mike Singletary has stated the gameplan will not change with Frank Gore out of the lineup for 3 weeks, and Coffee gets the carries. He’s going against a defense that has conceded nearly 150 ypg on the ground, so if he’s still out there, act now!
Michael Bush @ Houston – Projection: 12-65 rushing, 2-12 receiving, 1 TD
It’s always a gamble going with a Raider (as the team continues to try and justify their drafting of JaMarcus Russell), but the Texans surrender over 200 rushing ypg, so it shouldn’t take a genius to figure out the gameplan here: run the football.
Rashard Mendenhall vs. San Diego – Projection: 13-59 rushing, 1 TD
Willie Parker is doubtful for Sunday night, so Mendenhall and Mewelde Moore will share time. I’ll take the upside on Mendenhall, especially in goal line situations.
WIDE RECEIVER
Mike Sims-Walker vs. Tennessee – Projection: 6-87, 1 TD 
After this week, Sims-Walker will no longer be available in your league. He’s had back-to-back 6 catch games, for 106 and 81 yards, respectively. The Jags have a good matchup this week against a mediocre Titans’ pass D (giving up 274 ypg).
Earl Bennett vs. Detroit – Projection: 5-70, 1 TD
Johnny Knox is the popular Bear of the moment, but had just 1 catch last week. Yes, he had a solid Week 2, but take away his 68 yard catch in Week 1, and you can cut his ownership in half. Bennett is the starter, and, by the way, he had 80 yards last week.
Josh Morgan vs. St. Louis – Projection: 5-67 yards, 1 TD
Vernon Davis has become Hill’s favorite target, and Isaac Bruce went for 81 and a score last year against his former team, but the matchup dictates that this could be the week Morgan, one of fantasy football’s trendiest preseason sleepers, finally breaks out.
TIGHT END
Kevin Boss @ Kansas City – Projection: 4-48, 1 TD
Not counting Week 2 against the hapless Raiders, tight ends have averaged 6.5-89, 1 TD against the Chiefs in ’09. When the Giants pass, Eli Manning will first look to Steve Smith and Mario Manningham, but Boss should play a bigger role on Sunday.
KICKER
Steve Hauschka @ New England – Projection: 3-3 FG, 2 PAT (1 FG 40+)
I try to avoid picking the same player two weeks in a row, but Hauschka is still a free agent in 80% of fantasy leagues, and thus deserves another sleeper nod. The Patriots are a bend-but-don’t-break defense, but the Ravens average 34 ppg.
DEFENSE
Indianapolis vs. Seattle – Projection: 13 points allowed, 2 Sacks, 1 Int, 1 fumble recovery
This one has the makings of a low scoring affair, as neither the Colts nor Seahawks are scoring a lot or allowing many points. Without Hasselbeck, the Seahawks are a different team; they are not a team to strike fear into the hearts of their opponents.
Sleepers of the Week: Week 2
Posted: September 17, 2009
Match-ups often dictate success, and Week 2 will be no different. In Week 1 against St. Louis, the Seattle Seahawks produced the most sleepers in the league, per capita. This week, the lowly Rams visit the nation’s capital, and for that reason, you’ll find some Redskins listed below.
Here are the Sleepers for Week 2:
QUARTERBACK
Jason Campbell vs. St. Louis – Projection: 21-29, 265 yards, 2 TD, 1 Int
Campbell went 19-26 for 211 yards and a score in Week 1 against a top-line Giants defense. The Rams gave up 279 yards and 3 TD to Matt Hasselbeck of the Seahawks (though, they picked him off twice). Campbell should find room to throw against a poor Rams D.
JaMarcus Russell @ KC – Projection: 16-31, 285 yards, 2 TD
Understatement of the year: Russell is inaccurate. On Monday night, he was 12-30 (for 208 yards and 1 TD). As wild as he is, he keeps the ball away from the opposing team (368 attempts/8 Int in 2008). The Chiefs D gave up 501 total yards to Baltimore in Week 1, 303 in the air. This is the perfect opportunity for the rocket-armed former #1 pick to show his potential.
RUNNING BACK
Darren McFadden @ KC – Projection: 16 car, 101 yards, 3 rec, 34 yards, 1 TD
Here are the facts: The Chiefs gave up 198 rushing yards to the Ravens in Week 1, and are not good. The Raiders will run the ball a lot, and Run DMC is their top guy. Michael Bush is the short-yardage back, and will get 10-12 carries and put up a good line (almost picked him for a sleeper). If Fargas is back, he’ll get touches, but McFadden is in line for a HUGE week.
Ahmad Bradshaw @ Dallas – Projection: 13 car, 71 yards, 4 rec, 25 yards, 1 TD
The Giants are a run-first team, and Dallas gave up 174 ground yards to Tampa in Week 1. Bradshaw is the most explosive runner on the Giants depleted roster. Jacobs will be the battering ram, and then Bradshaw will come in and speed past the wounded/tired defenders. One big run, and this projection is left in the dust.
Leon Washington vs. New England – Projection: 12 car, 50 yards, 5 rec, 50 yards, 1 TD
Washington will continue to be a key cog in the Jets‘ offense in ’09. He rushed 15 times for 60 yards in Week 1, and caught 4 balls for 24 yards. The Patriots gave Fred Jackson room to work in week 1 (15 car, 57 yards, 5 rec, 83 yards, 1 TD), and Leon will present a similar challenge to the Pats in Week 2, in New York.
WIDE RECEIVER
Percy Harvin @ Detroit - Projection: 5 rec, 105 yards, 2 car, 20 yards, *2 TD
*Bold prediction of the week: Harvin returns his first career kickoff for a TD. This guy is dangerous every time he touches the rock. Even without the return, Detroit’s D stands no chance, and Harvin will have a BIG day.
Louis Murphy @ KC – Projection: 6 rec, 95 yards, 1 TD
All the hype has been around fellow-rookie and number one selection Darrius Heyward-Bey, but Murphy, a 4th round pick, is the better receiver. Russell targeted him 9 times in Week 1 (30% of the time). Murphy responded with 4 catches for 87 yards and a score (and almost had another TD, but it was ruled incomplete in the end zone). Without Chaz Schilens in the lineup, Murphy will continue to be the top receiver targeted, and against KC, he should continue to shine.
Steve Smith (NYG) @ Dallas – Projection: 7 rec, 90 yards, 1 TD
As stated earlier, the Giants are a run-first team. However, the Cowboys gave up 276 passing yards to Byron Leftwich in Week 1, so Eli Manning will get a chance to throw. Smith was targeted 8 times in Week 1, and hauled in 6 of them for 80 yards.
TIGHT END
Jermichael Finley vs. Cincinnati – Projection: 4 rec, 55 yards, 1 TD
Finley was on many sleeper boards going into the season, but responded with just 1 catch in the opener against the Bears. Donald Lee, the Packers #1 tight end, caught three balls, but for just 8 yards. The Bengals gave up 69 yards to tight ends against Denver last week, so Finley could be ready to bust out in Week 2.
KICKER
Matt Prater vs. Cleveland – Projection: 3-3 FG, 2 Pat (2 FG 40+ yards)
Prater looked solid in Week 1, attempting 2 long-range field goals and connecting on both (40+ and 50+). He did not miss a kick in the preseason, and against a weak Browns defense, he should be put in a position to succeed in Week 2.
DEFENSE
Washington vs. St. Louis – Projection: 10 points allowed, 2 sacks, 1 Int, 1 FF
The ‘Skins are not exciting. They don’t force a ton of turnovers, but led by the big addition of Albert Hayneworth, this underrated unit will have no trouble stopping the horrific Rams. How can you not pick any team playing the Rams right now!
OTHER “RIP VAN WINKLES”: QB Eli Manning @ Dallas, RB Knowshon Moreno vs. Cleveland, LeSean McCoy vs. New Orleans, WR Antwaan Randle El vs. St. Louis
Week 1 Sleeper Results: Sleepers in Seattle
Posted: September 15, 2009
Each Tuesday in the Fall, I will follow-up on my sleeper suggestions for the previous week with a scorecard measuring my success. Okay, so my first go-round came back with mixed results — if only the Bengals receivers could catch the ball, if only injuries didn’t prevent two-thirds of my receiver choices from playing, if only… Ah, the Monday (Tuesday) morning (evening) quarterback. At least all three of my running back picks returned big results! Here’s how it stacked up in week 1:
QUARTERBACK (1 for 2)
Carson Palmer
Projected: 25-39, 315 yards, 3 TD, 1 Int
Actual: 21-33, 247 yards, 2 Int
Matt Hasselbeck
Projected: 21-31, 275 yards, 2 TD
Actual: 25-36, 279 yards, 3 TD, 2 Int
RUNNING BACK (3 for 3)
Ray Rice
Projected: 21-114 rushing, 4-30 receiving, 1 TD
Actual: 19-108 rushing, 2-12 receiving, 0 TD
Fred Jackson
Projected: 26-106 rushing, 3-22 receiving, 1 receiving TD
Actual: 15-57 rushing, 5-83 receiving, 1 TD
Julius Jones
Projected: 19-94 rushing, 2-15 receiving, 1 TD
Actual: 19-117 rushing, 2-19 receiving, 1 TD
WIDE RECEIVER (0 for 3)
Anthony Gonzalez
Projected: 7-103, 1 TD
Actual: Injured, no receptions.
Kevin Walter
Projected: 6-95, 1 TD
Actual: Inactive
Chris Henry
Projected: 5-93, 1 TD
Actual: 1-18, 0 TD
TIGHT END (1 for 1)
John Carlson
Projected: 5-70, 1 TD
Actual: 6-95, 2 TD
KICKER (0 for 1)
Josh Brown
Projected: 3 FG (1 40+, 1 50+), 1 PAT
Actual: 0 FG, 0 PAT, 1 Missed FGA
DEFENSE (0 for 1)
Houston
Projected: 13 points allowed, 2 sacks, 1 Int, 1 forced fumble
Actual: 24 points allowed, 1 Int
Overall Scorecard for Week 1: (5 for 11)
Overall Scorecard for 2009 Season: (5 for 11)
Notes: Anthony Gonzalez is out “2-6 weeks” with a knee ligament sprain. Kevin Walter is expected back for Sunday against Tennessee. St. Louis’ offense is even more dismal than expected, and could manage only 1 field goal attempt Sunday. Houston’s D has a ways to go.
Sleepers of the Week: Week 1
Posted: September 10, 2009
Each week during the NFL season, I will predict my sleepers for the upcoming games, reaching into the bag to find the gems that could help you on your way to a W. Here are the sleepers for week 1:
QUARTERBACK
- Carson Palmer Projection: 25-39, 315 yards, 3 TD, 1 Int
Palmer faces a Denver D who ranked 26th against the pass in 2008 (without the services of All-Pro DB Champ Bailey for much of the year). Even with Bailey, Denver is shaky. Palmer is healthy, his receivers are capable and Cinci’s running game is meager, so this should become an aerial show.
- Matt Hasselbeck Projection: 21-31, 275 yards, 2 TD
Despite a questionable O-line, the Seattle offense is my prediction to surprise in week 1. Against a poor St. Louis D (28th in total yards allowed in ’08), Hasselbeck should return to the form that made him a top QB option as recently as 2007.
RUNNING BACK
- Ray Rice Projection: 21 carries, 114 yards, 4 receptions, 30 yards, 1 total TD
Rice has been given the lead role for Baltimore, a team that averaged 37 carries/gm in 2008. McGahee and McClain will get there touches, but against an awful KC defense (30th against the run in ’08) Rice should easily eclipse 100 yards.
- Fred Jackson Projection: 26 carries, 106 yards, 3 receptions, 22 yards, 1 total TD
With Marshawn Lynch suspended for the first 3 games of ’09, Jackson is the man. Against New England in week 17 last year, Jackson went for 27-136. I don’t expect quite the yardage production, but 100+ and a score is very realistic.
- Julius Jones Projection: 19 carries, 94 yards, 2 receptions, 15 yards, 1 total TD
Reminder: Seattle’s offense is a week 1 sleeper. The Rams ranked 29th against the run in ’08. Edgerrin James is slated for “at least 5 carries”, but Jones will get the bulk of the work. If he can get into the 22-25 carry range, it’s an easy 100 yards.
WIDE RECEIVER
- Anthony Gonzalez Projection: 7 catches, 103 yards, 1 TD
Everyone knows Gonzalez is now the #2 receiver in Indy. Big things are expected. Manning will look his way (a lot) out of the gates against a Jacksonville D that ranked 24th against the pass last year.
- Kevin Walter Projection: 6 catches, 95 yards, 1 TD
Like Gonzalez, Walter is the #2 in a high-powered passing attack. Also like Gonzalez, his match-up would dictate potential success: Jets 29th vs. pass in 2008. Despite the hamstring injury, Walter expects to play. Andre Johnson is the man, but Walter will be leaned on in single-coverage.
- Chris Henry (Cin) Projection: 5 catches, 93 yards, 1 TD
Palmer is going to go off against Denver. Coles and Ochocinco – despite being matched-up with Bailey – will get their catches, but Henry is going to make a statement. Count on it.
TIGHT END
- John Carlson Projection: 5 catches, 70 yards, 1 TD
I continue to jock the Seahawks. Now watch them get shut out. But seriously, Hasselbeck will be solid, and the running game will open things up for the passing attack. Carlson is as solid a week 1 play as there is at the position.
KICKER
- Josh Brown Projection: 3 FG (1 40+ yard, 1 50+ yard), 1 PAT
Seattle’s defense will not be one of the top units in the NFL in 2009, and aside from Steven Jackson, the Rams’ offense is as dismal as they come. The combination of the two should mean a fair amount of work for Brown.
DEFENSE
- Houston Texans Projection: 13 points allowed, 2 sacks, 1 Int, 1 forced fumble
Their 2008 numbers wouldn’t dictate success, but against a moderate, conservative Jets offense, and with some key additions to an underrated unit, the Texans have a favorable match-up.
Extras: 2008 Offensive Rankings, 2008 Defensive Rankings, 2009 Depth Charts
Just the Stats: 2009 Quarterback Projections
Posted: September 5, 2009
All stats are based on player trends, offensive systems and current situations. The “Overall” Quarterback fantasy score is determined for leagues using the following scoring system: 25 passing yards = 1 point, TD pass = 4 points, 10 rushing yards = 1 point, TD run = 6 points, 300+ yard passing game = 6 points, INT = -1 point, Fumble = -2 points, Sack = .25 points.
| PLAYER | Age | O-Ln | Bye | Week 14-15-16 | Yards |
TD | 300+ | Int | Fm | Sak | Ru Yds | Ru TD | OVERALL |
| Drew Brees | 30 | Plus | 5 | @Atl, Dal, TB | 4,500 | 30 | 7 | 16 | 3 | 15 | 27 | 0 | 319 |
| Tom Brady | 32 | Plus | 8 | Car, @Buf, Jac | 4,100 | 33 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 30 | 90 | 1 | 315 |
| Peyton Manning | 33 | Plus | 6 | Den, @Jac, NYJ | 4,000 | 29 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 16 | 17 | 1 | 290 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 25 | Minus | 5 | @Chi, @Pit, Sea | 3,800 | 25 | 4 | 14 | 4 | 36 | 175 | 2 | 275 |
| Tony Romo | 29 | Plus | 6 | SD, @NO, @Was | 3,600 | 27 | 4 | 16 | 5 | 22 | 90 | 1 | 261 |
| Kurt Warner | 38 | Even | 4 | @SF, @Det, StL | 3,900 | 27 | 5 | 16 | 6 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 260 |
| Jay Cutler | 26 | Plus | 5 | GB, @Bal, Min | 3,800 | 22 | 4 | 16 | 3 | 23 | 150 | 1 | 255 |
| Matt Schaub | 28 | Plus | 10 | Sea, @StL, @Mia | 3,800 | 22 | 5 | 12 | 5 | 31 | 70 | 1 | 253 |
| Philip Rivers | 27 | Even | 5 | @Dal, Cin, @Ten | 3,700 | 26 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 25 | 50 | 0 | 249 |
| Donovan McNabb | 32 | Plus | 4 | @NYG, SF, Den | 3,500 | 20 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 25 | 150 | 1 | 236 |
| Matt Ryan | 24 | Plus | 4 | NO, @NYJ, Buf | 3,600 | 19 | 3 | 12 | 2 | 19 | 75 | 1 | 231 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 27 | Minus | 8 | @Cle, GB, Bal | 3,300 | 21 | 2 | 16 | 4 | 46 | 125 | 1 | 211 |
| Carson Palmer | 29 | Minus | 8 | @Min, @SD, KC | 3,200 | 22 | 3 | 16 | 3 | 36 | 65 | 0 | 209 |
| David Garrard | 31 | Minus | 7 | Mia, Ind, @NE | 3,200 | 16 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 32 | 250 | 1 | 207 |
| Eli Manning | 28 | Plus | 10 | Phi, @Was, Car | 3,250 | 22 | 1 | 16 | 3 | 27 | 33 | 1 | 204 |
| Brett Favre | 39 | Plus | 9 | Cin, @Car, @Chi | 3,200 | 21 | 3 | 20 | 2 | 30 | 40 | 0 | 203 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 33 | Minus | 7 | SF, @Hou, TB | 3,200 | 18 | 2 | 14 | 3 | 35 | 75 | 0 | 191 |
| Chad Pennington | 33 | Plus | 6 | @Jac,@Ten,Hou | 3,200 | 17 | 2 | 12 | 2 | 25 | 50 | 0 | 190 |
| Jason Campbell | 27 | Minus | 8 | @Oak, NYG, Dal | 3,000 | 14 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 35 | 200 | 1 | 190 |
| Matt Cassel | 27 | Minus | 8 | Buf, Cle, @Cin | 3,100 | 17 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 36 | 150 | 1 | 189 |
| Kyle Orton | 26 | Plus | 7 | @Ind, Oak, @Phi | 2,900 | 18 | 2 | 14 | 5 | 19 | 50 | 1 | 186 |
| Joe Flacco | 24 | Plus | 7 | Det, Chi, @Pit | 3,000 | 16 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 32 | 150 | 1 | 183 |
| Brady Quinn | 24 | Even | 9 | Pit, @KC, Oak | 2,900 | 16 | 2 | 13 | 3 | 32 | 75 | 0 | 173 |
| Jake Delhomme | 34 | Plus | 4 | @NE, Min, @NYG | 2,850 | 16 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 20 | 25 | 1 | 169 |
| Shaun Hill | 29 | Minus | 6 | Ari, @Phi, Det | 2,600 | 18 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 35 | 75 | 1 | 166 |
| JaMarcus Russell | 24 | Minus | 9 | Was,@Den,@Cle | 2,700 | 16 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 30 | 125 | 1 | 165 |
| Trent Edwards | 25 | Minus | 9 | @KC, NE, @Atl | 2,900 | 14 | 1 | 14 | 5 | 25 | 100 | 1 | 164 |
| Mark Sanchez | 22 | Plus | 9 | @TB, Atl, @Ind | 2,900 | 14 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 26 | 75 | 0 | 161 |
| Kerry Collins | 36 | Plus | 7 | StL, Mia, SD | 2,500 | 13 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 30 | 0 | 145 |
| Byron Leftwich | 29 | Plus | 8 | NYJ, @Sea, @NO | 2,200 | 14 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 19 | 60 | 0 | 139 |
| Marc Bulger | 32 | Even | 9 | @Ten, Hou, @Ari | 2,600 | 12 | 0 | 14 | 4 | 38 | 25 | 0 | 123 |
| Matthew Stafford | 21 | Minus | 7 | @Bal, Ari, @SF | 2,100 | 9 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 19 | 50 | 0 | 106 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 32 | Minus | 7 | @Bal, Ari, @SF | 1,100 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 30 | 0 | 52 |
| Matt Leinart | 26 | Even | 4 | @SF, @Det, StL | 800 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 51 |
| Derek Anderson | 26 | Even | 9 | Pit, @KC, Oak |
Sleepers, Sleepers and More Sleepers
-
- Potential Comeback Player of the Year
-
- Sleeper Alert!
-
- Don’t sleep on Earl
Posted: September 2, 2009
Every year, our infatuation with the unknown drives us to a draft day reach or late-round flier we hope will make us look like fantasy geniuses. Which third-year wideout will step it up? Who’s the next DeAngelo Williams? Who’s the next Matt Cassel?
The best way to “scientifically” determine a sleeper is by cross-referencing research with preseason numbers, cross-checking it with team situation (depth chart, injuries, teammate abilities…) and then considering past success and/or expectations. Realistically, all I can tell you is: preseason success alone does NOT guarantee success for the season to come. For every DeAngelo Williams (2008 preseason: 188 rush yards, 3 TD; 2008 regular season: 1518 yards, 18 TD), there’s a Robert Meachem (2008 preseason: 217 rec. yards, 1 TD; 2008 regular season: 289 yards, 3 TD).
The following are solid bets for the 2009 class of sleepers. And no, Troy Williamson (232 receiving yards, 1 TD through 3 preseason games) will not be mentioned.
SLEEPERS:
QUARTERBACK
- Matt Hasselbeck (Sea) 3,200 YD, 18 TD, 14 INT, 2 300+ YD Gm
Injuries are an issue. A questionable O-line and running game don’t help, but a healthy group of receivers, and the addition of T.J. Houshmandzadeh to complement solid second-year TE John Carlson, spell potential comeback player of the year honors.
- Mark Sanchez (NYJ) 2,900 YD, 14 TD, 12 INT, 1 300+ YD Gm
Can another highly touted rookie step right in and make an impact, ala Matt Ryan? You bet. He’s won the starting gig, has had a fine preseason and the Jets will be a run first offense, putting Sanchez in a position to succeed.
RUNNING BACK
- LaDainian Tomlinson (SD) 1,150 YD, 12 TD, 3 100+ YD Gm, 400 Rec YD, 1 Rec TD
Consider this: He was dinged up last year and still managed 1,110 YD, 11 TD and 426 Rec YD. Sproles will spell him, but LT2 is the every down back, looking at 300+ carries. Don’t worry about 30. Look what Thomas Jones did last year at 30: 1312 YD, 13 TD.
- Darren McFadden (Oak) 1,050 YD, 7 TD, 3 100+ YD Gm, 400 Rec YD, 2 TD
Michael Bush, Justin Fargas, a bad O-line and unproven QB cloud the situation, but he will burst out of the pack as the best overall talent on the team. 4.4 YD/carry in 2008. Give him 200+ carries, and he’s dangerous. Plus, he’s an excellent receiver.
- Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG) 800 YD, 4 TD, 2 100+ YD Gm, 300 Rec YD, 2 Rec TD
Bradshaw is taking the role vacated by Derrick Ward and running with it. Fast. Danny Ware will get some time, and Brandon Jacobs is the goal-line guy, but Bradshaw is poised for a huge year for the best running team in football.
WIDE RECEIVER
- Josh Morgan (SF) 800 YD, 5 TD, 2 100+ YD Gm
He’s a trendy late-round breakout pick, but his situation doesn’t lend itself to definite success. Shaun Hill, the named starter at QB, has looked dismal in the preseason.
- Steve Smith (NYG) 850 YD, 4 TD, 2 100+ YD Gm
The Giants murky receiver situation has been played up by the media and downplayed by the organization. Smith, entering his 3rd season, is going to start, and he’s going to be Eli Manning’s security blanket. 1,000 yards is a real possibility.
TIGHT END
- Greg Olson (Chi) 750 YD, 6 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm
He is the trendy pick for the season, but rightfully so. Cutler is a true #1 fantasy QB, and Olson will be a major beneficiary.
KICKER
Elam is having a perfect preseason, and will be kicking for a good offense in a controlled setting (the Georgia Dome).
DEFENSE
Shawne Merriman is back, and the unit that was one of the league’s best just a couple seasons ago should be in the top 10, and could be in the top 5.
DEEP SLEEPERS:
QUARTERBACK
- Brady Quinn (Cle) 2,900 YD, 16 TD, 12 INT, 2 300+ YD Gm
Entrenched in a battle for the starting job with Derek Anderson, Quinn is posting solid numbers in the preseason. The new regime will pick its man soon – they have to, right? If Quinn is the guy, he could be poised for a solid year.
RUNNING BACK
- Laurence Maroney (NE) 700 YD, 5 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm, 150 Rec YD, 1 Rec TD
There’s a reason the Patriots took Maroney with their top pick in 2006. He has talent. An ambiguous injury and a muddled backfield situation make him a risky pick, but he has the highest upside of all New England backs, assuming his health and opportunity.
- Bernard Scott (Cin) 600 YD, 3 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm, 100 Rec YD, 0 Rec TD
At some point in 2009, he’ll get a chance to show his ability. Cedric Benson is the only “talented” runner in front of him. The Bengals need someone to step up. Why not Scott?
WIDE RECEIVER
- Earl Bennett (Chi) 800 YD, 4 TD, 2 100+ YD Gm
Bennett has been handed a starting receiver position, opposite Devin Hester, and he hasn’t disappointed. His comfort level with Jay Cutler, having played with him in college, is readily apparent. He’s poised for a breakout year.
- Chris Henry (Cin) 700 YD, 4 TD, 2 100+ YD Gm
It’s amazing what a contract year can do for a guy. Assuming he can stay healthy and out of trouble, Henry has a lot to play for. Laveranues Coles and Chad Ochocinco are 1 – 2 respectively, but Henry has potential to be as good a 3 as there is in the league.
TIGHT END
- Brent Celek (Phi) 550 YD, 4 TD, 0 100+ YD Gm
Celek could work his way into being an every week starter for fantasy teams by mid-season. He will start in Philly from day 1, and this could be a breakout year.
KICKER
No Jay Cutler, questions surrounding Brandon Marshall, but there are still weapons, and Prater should be more consistent in 2009.
DEFENSE
Albert Haynesworth is a BIG addition. He helped make Tennessee a top five D last year. He will help the ‘Skins flirt with the top 10 in 2009.
IF THE STARS ALIGN:
QUARTERBACK
- Matt Leinart (Ari) 800 YD, 3 TD, 1 INT, 1 300+ YD Gm
Kurt Warner is THE starter in the most dynamic passing attack in football. However, Leinert has looked good this preseason, and were the incumbent to go down, he is an immediate must add. Handcuff him from day 1, if you have the roster space.
RUNNING BACK
- James Davis (Cle) 450 YD, 3 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm, 100 Rec YD, 0 Rec TD
Eric Mangini claimed Jerome Harrison would have a bigger role in the offense in 2009, and then Harrison missed most of preseason due to injury. In steps the rookie, Davis, to become one of the top late-round choices in the fantasy world. Given an opportunity, Davis could showcase himself as the Steve Slaton of 2009.
- Glen Coffee (SF) 400 YD, 2 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm, 75 Rec YD, 0 Rec TD
Like Davis, fellow rookie Coffee has emerged as an exciting late-round option for 2009. Frank Gore is solidified as the starter, but Coffee will spell him. If Gore were to go down, Coffee would step in, and he would excel.
WIDE RECEIVER
- Hakeem Nicks (NYG) 700 YD, 5 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm
Over the past couple weeks, Nicks has shown why the Giants took him with their top pick. Some questions remain, but he has the skills, and the Giants need someone to step up. If he gets his shot, Nicks will obliterate these projections.
- Robert Meachem (NO) 700 YD, 5 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm
“What!? You hypocrite!” I know. I give the guy a bum rap in the opening and then put him in the mix. But look at his situation: he’s going into his 3rd year, has the best fantasy QB going (sorry Brady and Peyton), and he’s having a good preseason. IF he unseats Devery Henderson, and IF he can take his solid play to the regular season, this is the year.
TIGHT END
- Martellus Bennett (Dal) 400 YD, 4 TD, 0 100+ YD Gm
Jason Witten will be Romo’s top target, but with the departure of T.O., the receiving corp is questionable. Bennett could benefit. If something happens to Witten, he will start.
KICKER
Matt Stover was let go, and Graham Gano was brought in, but Hauschka looks like he may win the job out of camp. If he does, he could be a good bye-week pickup.
DEFENSE
The D-line and linebackers are solid, the secondary is still a bit like Swiss cheese, but this unit could surprise.
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