NFL Playoffs 2011-NFC Divisional Match-ups
By Brian McGee
Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears:
The Earth shaking Seahawks are trying to prove the World wrong again. They will be on the road in this game in a very cold environment. The forecast — to be in the mid to high 20′s, with a chance of snow shower — should prove an advantage for the Chicago Bears. Matt Hasselback decided to play like a Hall of Fame QB and beat the defending champs last week in their wild card match-up. During the season he threw 12 touchdowns and 17 interceptions, but against the Saints last week he threw 4 touchdowns to only 1 interception. He had a passer rating of 113, a touch better than his average rating for the season of 73. After the phenomenal run of Marshawn Lynch that almost brought the town of Seattle to rubble, the Seahawks must be taken more seriously. If the Bears think they will be able to control them with their defense and have Cutler get the ball in the end zone, they could be in for a shock. With that being said, this is the best match-up that Bears could have asked for. They have earned their home field advantage, although it was through a lesser schedule than most teams. They will need the accuracy of Cutler to return and to use the versatility of Matt Forte early and often to move the chains. The Bears “D” will not allow 41 points to be posted up on them; they are rested and ready to get their run into the playoffs. Look for a controlled run/pass attack and a fierce defense from the Bears to end the Seahawks hopes for another shocking win.
Bears win 24-17
Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons
Matt Ryan does not lose at the Georgia Dome. Aaron Rodgers loves to win in hostile settings. It’s a battle of phenomenal young QB’s, one a little more seasoned than the other. The Falcons and Ryan have been proving people wrong every week of the season; they have proven how dominant their defense can be and how poised their young quarterback is. This is the game that I would watch if their was only one game that I could. I want to see how Rodgers finds throwing room against the Falcons and how well Jennings can respond with a mediocre performance last week. The Packers dropped a couple crucial balls last week, especially at the end of the half when James Jones used his frying pan hands and missed a scoring opportunity. With a lot of offensive possibilities in this game, the key to whomever wins will once again be a defensive stop in the final 2 minutes. Whatever team will come through and muster up that little extra on defense will win the game. I am very excited for this game, and I hope it lives up to the hype I am giving it. Two great duos with Rodgers and Jennings and Ryan and White. Fantastic defenses playing at the highest level, not many things can top playoff football.
Packers win 27-24
Just the Stats: 2009 Quarterback Projections
Posted: September 5, 2009
All stats are based on player trends, offensive systems and current situations. The “Overall” Quarterback fantasy score is determined for leagues using the following scoring system: 25 passing yards = 1 point, TD pass = 4 points, 10 rushing yards = 1 point, TD run = 6 points, 300+ yard passing game = 6 points, INT = -1 point, Fumble = -2 points, Sack = .25 points.
| PLAYER | Age | O-Ln | Bye | Week 14-15-16 | Yards |
TD | 300+ | Int | Fm | Sak | Ru Yds | Ru TD | OVERALL |
| Drew Brees | 30 | Plus | 5 | @Atl, Dal, TB | 4,500 | 30 | 7 | 16 | 3 | 15 | 27 | 0 | 319 |
| Tom Brady | 32 | Plus | 8 | Car, @Buf, Jac | 4,100 | 33 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 30 | 90 | 1 | 315 |
| Peyton Manning | 33 | Plus | 6 | Den, @Jac, NYJ | 4,000 | 29 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 16 | 17 | 1 | 290 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 25 | Minus | 5 | @Chi, @Pit, Sea | 3,800 | 25 | 4 | 14 | 4 | 36 | 175 | 2 | 275 |
| Tony Romo | 29 | Plus | 6 | SD, @NO, @Was | 3,600 | 27 | 4 | 16 | 5 | 22 | 90 | 1 | 261 |
| Kurt Warner | 38 | Even | 4 | @SF, @Det, StL | 3,900 | 27 | 5 | 16 | 6 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 260 |
| Jay Cutler | 26 | Plus | 5 | GB, @Bal, Min | 3,800 | 22 | 4 | 16 | 3 | 23 | 150 | 1 | 255 |
| Matt Schaub | 28 | Plus | 10 | Sea, @StL, @Mia | 3,800 | 22 | 5 | 12 | 5 | 31 | 70 | 1 | 253 |
| Philip Rivers | 27 | Even | 5 | @Dal, Cin, @Ten | 3,700 | 26 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 25 | 50 | 0 | 249 |
| Donovan McNabb | 32 | Plus | 4 | @NYG, SF, Den | 3,500 | 20 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 25 | 150 | 1 | 236 |
| Matt Ryan | 24 | Plus | 4 | NO, @NYJ, Buf | 3,600 | 19 | 3 | 12 | 2 | 19 | 75 | 1 | 231 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 27 | Minus | 8 | @Cle, GB, Bal | 3,300 | 21 | 2 | 16 | 4 | 46 | 125 | 1 | 211 |
| Carson Palmer | 29 | Minus | 8 | @Min, @SD, KC | 3,200 | 22 | 3 | 16 | 3 | 36 | 65 | 0 | 209 |
| David Garrard | 31 | Minus | 7 | Mia, Ind, @NE | 3,200 | 16 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 32 | 250 | 1 | 207 |
| Eli Manning | 28 | Plus | 10 | Phi, @Was, Car | 3,250 | 22 | 1 | 16 | 3 | 27 | 33 | 1 | 204 |
| Brett Favre | 39 | Plus | 9 | Cin, @Car, @Chi | 3,200 | 21 | 3 | 20 | 2 | 30 | 40 | 0 | 203 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 33 | Minus | 7 | SF, @Hou, TB | 3,200 | 18 | 2 | 14 | 3 | 35 | 75 | 0 | 191 |
| Chad Pennington | 33 | Plus | 6 | @Jac,@Ten,Hou | 3,200 | 17 | 2 | 12 | 2 | 25 | 50 | 0 | 190 |
| Jason Campbell | 27 | Minus | 8 | @Oak, NYG, Dal | 3,000 | 14 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 35 | 200 | 1 | 190 |
| Matt Cassel | 27 | Minus | 8 | Buf, Cle, @Cin | 3,100 | 17 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 36 | 150 | 1 | 189 |
| Kyle Orton | 26 | Plus | 7 | @Ind, Oak, @Phi | 2,900 | 18 | 2 | 14 | 5 | 19 | 50 | 1 | 186 |
| Joe Flacco | 24 | Plus | 7 | Det, Chi, @Pit | 3,000 | 16 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 32 | 150 | 1 | 183 |
| Brady Quinn | 24 | Even | 9 | Pit, @KC, Oak | 2,900 | 16 | 2 | 13 | 3 | 32 | 75 | 0 | 173 |
| Jake Delhomme | 34 | Plus | 4 | @NE, Min, @NYG | 2,850 | 16 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 20 | 25 | 1 | 169 |
| Shaun Hill | 29 | Minus | 6 | Ari, @Phi, Det | 2,600 | 18 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 35 | 75 | 1 | 166 |
| JaMarcus Russell | 24 | Minus | 9 | Was,@Den,@Cle | 2,700 | 16 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 30 | 125 | 1 | 165 |
| Trent Edwards | 25 | Minus | 9 | @KC, NE, @Atl | 2,900 | 14 | 1 | 14 | 5 | 25 | 100 | 1 | 164 |
| Mark Sanchez | 22 | Plus | 9 | @TB, Atl, @Ind | 2,900 | 14 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 26 | 75 | 0 | 161 |
| Kerry Collins | 36 | Plus | 7 | StL, Mia, SD | 2,500 | 13 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 30 | 0 | 145 |
| Byron Leftwich | 29 | Plus | 8 | NYJ, @Sea, @NO | 2,200 | 14 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 19 | 60 | 0 | 139 |
| Marc Bulger | 32 | Even | 9 | @Ten, Hou, @Ari | 2,600 | 12 | 0 | 14 | 4 | 38 | 25 | 0 | 123 |
| Matthew Stafford | 21 | Minus | 7 | @Bal, Ari, @SF | 2,100 | 9 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 19 | 50 | 0 | 106 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 32 | Minus | 7 | @Bal, Ari, @SF | 1,100 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 30 | 0 | 52 |
| Matt Leinart | 26 | Even | 4 | @SF, @Det, StL | 800 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 51 |
| Derek Anderson | 26 | Even | 9 | Pit, @KC, Oak |
Impact Rookies
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- 2008 Top Rookie
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- Top Rookie for 2009?
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- The Matt Ryan of 2009?
Posted: September 3, 2009
It’s commonly known that every year a handful of rookies explode onto the scene to become fantasy stars. Traditionally, it’s the rookie running back who climbs to the top of the rubble, but occasionally, a receiver, tight end or quarterback makes his name known.
Let’s look at last year’s success stories with an average 2009 ADP in the top 100 (per Yahoo!):
Matt Forte (Chi) RB ADP: 5.3
Chris Johnson (Ten) RB ADP: 15.3
Steve Slaton (Hou) RB ADP: 17.6
Kevin Smith (Det) RB ADP: 56
Eddie Royal (Den) WR ADP: 66.1
DeSean Jackson (Phi) WR ADP: 72.7
Matt Ryan (Atl) QB ADP: 79.4
Jonathan Stewart (Car) RB ADP: 85.3
Finding the cream of the rookie crop is the single most exciting thing in fantasy sports; even more rewarding than guessing right on a twelfth round sleeper who turns into a Pro-Bowler. Okay, maybe that’s stretching it, but the truth is, a rookie can put your team over the top and help win your league. But we wary: a rookie is an unknown commodity. Not everyone is Adrian Peterson or Matt Forte. Just ask 2008 Darren McFadden owners, or Rashard Mendenhall owners, or Felix Jones owners… You get the picture.
So which rookies are worth the risk in 2009? Here’s how they stack up:
Running Backs
- Knowshon Moreno (Den) 1,100 YD, 8 TD, 4 100+ YD Gm, 300 Rec YD, 2 Rec TD
The knee injury and resulting lack of preseason time are a concern, but Moreno is the most all-around back in the 2009 class and Denver’s clear-cut top option, if healthy.
- Beanie Wells (Ari) 950 YD, 10 TD, 3 100+ YD Gm, 75 Rec YD, 0 Rec TD
Injuries are a concern, and his lack of receiving ability is an issue, but he is a beast and is easily the best runner on the Cardinals.
- Donald Brown (Ind) 800 YD, 6 TD, 2 100+ YD Gm, 250 Rec YD, 2 Rec TD
Locked in a time-share with Joseph Addai, Brown has the skill-set to excel and potentially wind up the lead back by season’s end. Watch out if Addai gets hurt.
- LeSean McCoy (Phi) 600 YD, 2 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm, 250 Rec YD, 2 Rec TD
Brian Westbrook is the starter, but McCoy will get significant touches and be a star if Westbrook goes down.
- Bernard Scott (Cin) 600 YD, 3 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm, 100 Rec YD, 0 Rec TD
Scott has the skills and has had a decent preseason. Cedric Benson is the only thing standing between him and a chance to shine. When Benson falters, Scott is the add.
- James Davis (Cle) 450 YD, 3 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm, 100 Rec YD, 0 Rec TD
Davis has proven his potential in the preseason, and if he’s given a legit chance, ahead of Harrison, to succeed Jamal Lewis – who will, inevitably fall off a cliff – he will flourish, and could put up BIG numbers.
- Glen Coffee (SF) 400 YD, 2 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm, 75 Rec YD, 0 Rec TD
Coffee may have done his best running in the preseason, as Frank Gore is the man in San Francisco. If Gore gets dinged up, Coffee will hit the ground running.
- Shonn Greene (NYJ) 350 YD, 4 TD, 0 100+ YD Gm, 50 Rec YD, 0 Rec TD
Sit back and wait. Thomas Jones and Leon Washington are the Jets’ top options, and the preseason rib injury might linger, but Greene is a nice complement who should see an increased workload as the season progresses.
- Rashad Jennings (Jac) 300 YD, 2 TD, 0 100+ YD Gm, 50 Rec YD, 0 Rec TD
Not enough preseason work to judge by, and Maurice Jones-Drew is a top 5 fantasy option. The only way Jennings gets a serious look is if MJD blows a tire.
Wide Receivers
- Percy Harvin (Min) 850 YD, 4 TD, 2 100+ YD Gm
Inconsistent in the preseason, but the Vikings are finding ways to get him the ball.
- Hakeem Nicks (NYG) 700 YD, 5 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm
Solid preseason could vault him into more playing time, which would mean he exceeds these mild expectations.
- Jeremy Maclin (Phi) 750 YD, 3 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm
The offense is deep, but he’s too talented not to succeed. Solid preseason will translate.
- Brian Robiskie (Cle) 600 YD, 3 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm
Like his quarterbacks, he’s battling for playing time.
- Kenny Britt (Ten) 550 YD, 2 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm
While Nate Washington recovers, he’ll start opposite Justin Gage in one of the weakest passing offenses in football.
- Darrius Heyward-Bey (Oak) 500 YD, 2 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm
The Raiders will force-feed the top receiver selected in the 2009 NFL draft, and then scratch their heads and wonder why they picked him.
- Michael Crabtree (SF) Will not play.
Talk about a wasted pick. Crabtree could have been a candidate for top rookie receiver honors, but he’ll likely sit out the season. Even if he does sign, he won’t be a factor.
Quarterbacks
- Mark Sanchez (NYJ) 2,900 YD, 14 TD, 12 INT, 1 300+ YD Gm
Sanchez has been handed the keys to the Jets’ franchise, and will be given every opportunity to succeed. Expect Joe Flacco numbers, not Matt Ryan. Slight bump up if they manage to acquire Brandon Marshall.
- Matthew Stafford (Det) 2,100 YD, 9 TD, 13 INT, 1 300+ YD Gm
Uneven preseason, but if Culpepper’s odd injury thrusts April’s top pick into a starting role, he has a few weapons at his disposal. Regardless, he should be starting by midseason. Avoid him, if at all possible.
Tight Ends
- Brandon Pettigrew (Det) 350 YD, 2 TD
The best bet of the rookie tight ends to make his mark, but unlikely to make a fantasy difference in ’09.
Sleepers, Sleepers and More Sleepers
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- Potential Comeback Player of the Year
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- Sleeper Alert!
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- Don’t sleep on Earl
Posted: September 2, 2009
Every year, our infatuation with the unknown drives us to a draft day reach or late-round flier we hope will make us look like fantasy geniuses. Which third-year wideout will step it up? Who’s the next DeAngelo Williams? Who’s the next Matt Cassel?
The best way to “scientifically” determine a sleeper is by cross-referencing research with preseason numbers, cross-checking it with team situation (depth chart, injuries, teammate abilities…) and then considering past success and/or expectations. Realistically, all I can tell you is: preseason success alone does NOT guarantee success for the season to come. For every DeAngelo Williams (2008 preseason: 188 rush yards, 3 TD; 2008 regular season: 1518 yards, 18 TD), there’s a Robert Meachem (2008 preseason: 217 rec. yards, 1 TD; 2008 regular season: 289 yards, 3 TD).
The following are solid bets for the 2009 class of sleepers. And no, Troy Williamson (232 receiving yards, 1 TD through 3 preseason games) will not be mentioned.
SLEEPERS:
QUARTERBACK
- Matt Hasselbeck (Sea) 3,200 YD, 18 TD, 14 INT, 2 300+ YD Gm
Injuries are an issue. A questionable O-line and running game don’t help, but a healthy group of receivers, and the addition of T.J. Houshmandzadeh to complement solid second-year TE John Carlson, spell potential comeback player of the year honors.
- Mark Sanchez (NYJ) 2,900 YD, 14 TD, 12 INT, 1 300+ YD Gm
Can another highly touted rookie step right in and make an impact, ala Matt Ryan? You bet. He’s won the starting gig, has had a fine preseason and the Jets will be a run first offense, putting Sanchez in a position to succeed.
RUNNING BACK
- LaDainian Tomlinson (SD) 1,150 YD, 12 TD, 3 100+ YD Gm, 400 Rec YD, 1 Rec TD
Consider this: He was dinged up last year and still managed 1,110 YD, 11 TD and 426 Rec YD. Sproles will spell him, but LT2 is the every down back, looking at 300+ carries. Don’t worry about 30. Look what Thomas Jones did last year at 30: 1312 YD, 13 TD.
- Darren McFadden (Oak) 1,050 YD, 7 TD, 3 100+ YD Gm, 400 Rec YD, 2 TD
Michael Bush, Justin Fargas, a bad O-line and unproven QB cloud the situation, but he will burst out of the pack as the best overall talent on the team. 4.4 YD/carry in 2008. Give him 200+ carries, and he’s dangerous. Plus, he’s an excellent receiver.
- Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG) 800 YD, 4 TD, 2 100+ YD Gm, 300 Rec YD, 2 Rec TD
Bradshaw is taking the role vacated by Derrick Ward and running with it. Fast. Danny Ware will get some time, and Brandon Jacobs is the goal-line guy, but Bradshaw is poised for a huge year for the best running team in football.
WIDE RECEIVER
- Josh Morgan (SF) 800 YD, 5 TD, 2 100+ YD Gm
He’s a trendy late-round breakout pick, but his situation doesn’t lend itself to definite success. Shaun Hill, the named starter at QB, has looked dismal in the preseason.
- Steve Smith (NYG) 850 YD, 4 TD, 2 100+ YD Gm
The Giants murky receiver situation has been played up by the media and downplayed by the organization. Smith, entering his 3rd season, is going to start, and he’s going to be Eli Manning’s security blanket. 1,000 yards is a real possibility.
TIGHT END
- Greg Olson (Chi) 750 YD, 6 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm
He is the trendy pick for the season, but rightfully so. Cutler is a true #1 fantasy QB, and Olson will be a major beneficiary.
KICKER
Elam is having a perfect preseason, and will be kicking for a good offense in a controlled setting (the Georgia Dome).
DEFENSE
Shawne Merriman is back, and the unit that was one of the league’s best just a couple seasons ago should be in the top 10, and could be in the top 5.
DEEP SLEEPERS:
QUARTERBACK
- Brady Quinn (Cle) 2,900 YD, 16 TD, 12 INT, 2 300+ YD Gm
Entrenched in a battle for the starting job with Derek Anderson, Quinn is posting solid numbers in the preseason. The new regime will pick its man soon – they have to, right? If Quinn is the guy, he could be poised for a solid year.
RUNNING BACK
- Laurence Maroney (NE) 700 YD, 5 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm, 150 Rec YD, 1 Rec TD
There’s a reason the Patriots took Maroney with their top pick in 2006. He has talent. An ambiguous injury and a muddled backfield situation make him a risky pick, but he has the highest upside of all New England backs, assuming his health and opportunity.
- Bernard Scott (Cin) 600 YD, 3 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm, 100 Rec YD, 0 Rec TD
At some point in 2009, he’ll get a chance to show his ability. Cedric Benson is the only “talented” runner in front of him. The Bengals need someone to step up. Why not Scott?
WIDE RECEIVER
- Earl Bennett (Chi) 800 YD, 4 TD, 2 100+ YD Gm
Bennett has been handed a starting receiver position, opposite Devin Hester, and he hasn’t disappointed. His comfort level with Jay Cutler, having played with him in college, is readily apparent. He’s poised for a breakout year.
- Chris Henry (Cin) 700 YD, 4 TD, 2 100+ YD Gm
It’s amazing what a contract year can do for a guy. Assuming he can stay healthy and out of trouble, Henry has a lot to play for. Laveranues Coles and Chad Ochocinco are 1 – 2 respectively, but Henry has potential to be as good a 3 as there is in the league.
TIGHT END
- Brent Celek (Phi) 550 YD, 4 TD, 0 100+ YD Gm
Celek could work his way into being an every week starter for fantasy teams by mid-season. He will start in Philly from day 1, and this could be a breakout year.
KICKER
No Jay Cutler, questions surrounding Brandon Marshall, but there are still weapons, and Prater should be more consistent in 2009.
DEFENSE
Albert Haynesworth is a BIG addition. He helped make Tennessee a top five D last year. He will help the ‘Skins flirt with the top 10 in 2009.
IF THE STARS ALIGN:
QUARTERBACK
- Matt Leinart (Ari) 800 YD, 3 TD, 1 INT, 1 300+ YD Gm
Kurt Warner is THE starter in the most dynamic passing attack in football. However, Leinert has looked good this preseason, and were the incumbent to go down, he is an immediate must add. Handcuff him from day 1, if you have the roster space.
RUNNING BACK
- James Davis (Cle) 450 YD, 3 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm, 100 Rec YD, 0 Rec TD
Eric Mangini claimed Jerome Harrison would have a bigger role in the offense in 2009, and then Harrison missed most of preseason due to injury. In steps the rookie, Davis, to become one of the top late-round choices in the fantasy world. Given an opportunity, Davis could showcase himself as the Steve Slaton of 2009.
- Glen Coffee (SF) 400 YD, 2 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm, 75 Rec YD, 0 Rec TD
Like Davis, fellow rookie Coffee has emerged as an exciting late-round option for 2009. Frank Gore is solidified as the starter, but Coffee will spell him. If Gore were to go down, Coffee would step in, and he would excel.
WIDE RECEIVER
- Hakeem Nicks (NYG) 700 YD, 5 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm
Over the past couple weeks, Nicks has shown why the Giants took him with their top pick. Some questions remain, but he has the skills, and the Giants need someone to step up. If he gets his shot, Nicks will obliterate these projections.
- Robert Meachem (NO) 700 YD, 5 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm
“What!? You hypocrite!” I know. I give the guy a bum rap in the opening and then put him in the mix. But look at his situation: he’s going into his 3rd year, has the best fantasy QB going (sorry Brady and Peyton), and he’s having a good preseason. IF he unseats Devery Henderson, and IF he can take his solid play to the regular season, this is the year.
TIGHT END
- Martellus Bennett (Dal) 400 YD, 4 TD, 0 100+ YD Gm
Jason Witten will be Romo’s top target, but with the departure of T.O., the receiving corp is questionable. Bennett could benefit. If something happens to Witten, he will start.
KICKER
Matt Stover was let go, and Graham Gano was brought in, but Hauschka looks like he may win the job out of camp. If he does, he could be a good bye-week pickup.
DEFENSE
The D-line and linebackers are solid, the secondary is still a bit like Swiss cheese, but this unit could surprise.
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