NFL Playoffs 2011 – AFC Divisional Round Matchups
By Brian McGee
The Wild Card weekend is done, and, to no surprise, the Ravens made it through. The Jets found a way to get past Peyton Manning and the Colts, and thus, I was 1 for 2 last week with my AFC predictions. Let’s see if I can improve on that this week.
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
When worlds collide, this is what it must feel like. These two powerhouse defenses are known for wanting to mame and decapitate each other, and have had some success in doing both. They split their regular season meetings, with both games decided by a field goal, even with Pittsburgh starting 13-year pro and perennial back-up Charlie Batch in the Week 4 meeting (won by the Ravens). When Ben Roethlisberger was behind center, the Steelers won, but Big Ben suffered a broken nose in the process; a little reminder from the Ravens that they don’t like to lose. This game will be just like the previous matches. The defenses will keep the score low because neither give up a lot of touchdowns, and the game should be decided by which QB can take their respective team down the field in the 4th quarter. The Steelers defense has been able to keep them in games and give Big Ben a chance to make a game-winning drive. Joe Flacco looked precise and under control for the Ravens in last week’s route of the Kansas City Chiefs. You can’t take much away from that game offensively because of the turnovers, but Flacco looked more poised than last year, and that is a big thing. Going into Heinz field and trying to win in the playoffs is a very difficult task, but I think the Ravens are up to it. Ray Rice is now more involved in the gameplan, and the Ravens have many receiving targets for Flacco. Troy Polamalu can’t cover them all. Of course, this will be a grind out kind of game, but at the end, the drive that will matter will be in the hands of the Ravens offense, and they will get it done.
Ravens win 20-17
New York Jets @ New England Patriots
Apparently Rex Ryan is confused. He believes this game is only about him against Bill Belichick. He has forgotten the beat-down his team received the last time these two met. His focus should be on getting his team past this round of the playoffs and into the AFC Championship game. Making it personal may take some of the pressure off of his team, but it shouldn’t be needed at this juncture of the season. Your team is either mentally and physically prepared by now or they aren’t. If the Jets are not ready, then that blame is rested squarely on Ryan’s shoulders. After last week’s last second field goal by Nick Folk, the Jets made it past the Indianapolis Colts, but if they expect to contend with the Patriots, they will need a much better game out of their QB. Mark Sanchez was 18 for 31 against the Colts for 189 yards and 1 interception. That won’t cut it against Brady and Company. The Jets needed poor coaching from the Indianapolis sideline to narrowly escape Wild-Card Weekend. Belichick won’t give the Jets as many opportunities. He will have a phenomenal game plan, as usual, and Brady will execute it with precision. With BenJarvus Green-Ellis becoming a consistent running back and the dual threat of Danny Woodhead, the Patriots are a more balanced and higher caliber team.
Patriots win 27-17
NFL Playoffs Continued
By Brian McGee
And now for the AFC match-ups.
New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts:
This isn’t a game between Mark Sanchez and Peyton Manning because if it were, it wouldn’t be a game at all; Manning is the far superior quarterback. This will be a game of defenses. The Colts D needs to harness its playoff nastiness once again to give their team a chance to advance into the next round. Manning may own Rex Ryan and any team he coaches for — like Rex Ryan’s wife needs to own some shoes — but the game will still be decided on how the defenses contain the offenses. The Jets can live with a 10 point game because they expect their defense to carry them when Sanchez and company have a hard time moving the ball. This is the first year in a while that the Colts have looked vulnerable. They did, however, end the regular season on a 4 game winning streak to get into the playoffs, and I can’t see that momentum slowing down. The Jets are a better team than they were last year, but on the road, and with the Colts rolling, I don’t see them coming away with a victory. Even with his subs in, Manning can make anybody better and will find a way to win.
Final Score: Colts win 17-13
Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs:
The league’s best rushing attack against one of the league’s best run stopping defenses. Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones have run for over 2,300 yards this season, with a combined average of 4.9 yards per carry. Charles fell less than 150 yards short of the rushing title, and he did it as a “back-up” for the first part of the year. The Ravens have found their old ways, giving Ray Rice as many touches as he can handle. He is as versatile as Charles with a lower center of gravity, so instead of going around people, he can go through them, if necessary. The Chiefs were very good in the regular season at home, with a record of 7-1, their only loss to an Oakland Raiders team that finished the season 6-0 in the AFC West. Matt Cassel and Dwayne Bowe have been off lately, and will be hard pressed to find their groove against the Ravens’ experienced defensive attack led by grandfather linebacker Ray Lewis. This will be a very good, very close game, but the Ravens will shut down the Chiefs’ ground attack and win it on a field goal in the final minutes.
Final Score: Ravens win 13-10
NFL Playoffs 2011
By Brian McGee
The season is over and the post-season is upon us. I hope your Fantasy leagues went as well as you hoped they would. I, unfortunately, had a rough year with some injuries (Antonio Gates=upsetting), but I will not dwell on it. I will only make up for it with a post-season victory. My F.P.I.C. (Fantasy Partner In Crime), Josh, had a very nice year with, I believe, two league championships out of three, so kudos to you, Joshua.
Now to the playoffs.
NFC Division
New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks:
The Seahawks are the first team with a losing record to get into the playoffs. Go Charlie Whitehurst. The Seahawks should reward Whitehurst with a playoff start and leave Matt Hasselback on the bench. What do they have to lose? Not only are they in the playoffs, but they are hosting the game. Seattle has always been a very tough place for opposing teams to come in and win big games, but, that said, the Seahawks don’t stand a chance with the defending champions coming to town. The last line in Vegas has the Saints as a 10 point favorite. That means the odds makers are giving Seattle little to no chance. The Saints are the 3rd best passing team in the league, led by Sportsman of the Year, Drew Brees. Both teams are bottom dwellers in the run game, the Saints more than ever with the injury to rookie Chris ivory. I am happy for Seattle and I don’t believe the playoff rules should be changed; this has been the only time a team with a losing record has ever gotten in. The people who should be mad are the other NFC west teams, St. Louis especially. Drew Brees will guide his team to a wild card victory.
Final Score: Saints win 27-10 (that even rhymes)
Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles:
Aaron Rodgers vs. Michael Vick; everything else is irrelevant. Which 2010 outstanding QB will shine in the biggest spotlight of the New Year? Will Rodgers show the NFL that he does indeed deserve to be in the Pro Bowl? Or will Michael Vick confirm his status as an elite QB? The Eagles hold two distinct advantages in this game: home field and LeSean McCoy. The Packers have no running game, and thus their offense rests on the chiseled shoulders of their young and talented quarterback, Rodgers. The Eagles ground attack features the skilled McCoy, Vick and even DeSean Jackson, if the Eagles can use him at the right moments on some end-a-rounds. If Vick can scramble as well as he has all year, A.J. Hawk, Clay Matthews and the rest of the Packer defense will have a very long day. The Packers’ defense ranks 18th against the run and 5th against the pass. For the Eagles to be successful they will need to lean on the running game and pass the ball efficiently. These two teams met in the first week of the season with the Packers prevailing 27-20, but Vick was only in for half the game. I expect this to be another close battle, the winner to be determined because of a big defensive play. Aaron Rodgers has carried this team offensively all year, so expect nothing less from him in this game. He will have more to prove because of the Pro Bowl snub. Rodgers should take it personally and use that on the field.
Final Score: Packers win 24-20
Week 10: On Your Mark, Get Set, Start Em’ (cont.)
By Brian McGee
Here are some Wide Receivers who will help your team this week:
WR: Danny Amendola (StL) – Amendola is Sam Bradford’s most trusted receiver, and though Danny is not a deep threat, by any means, he receives enough targets to be a good week-to-week fill-in for your wide receiving core. In his 2nd year in the NFL, his numbers are solid: 45 receptions, 379 yards, 2 touchdowns and an average of 8.4 yards per catch. With 5.5 receptions per game, he can be counted on to produce for you when needed.
Week 10 Projection: 55 yards, 1TD
WR: Michael Jenkins (ATL) – Jenkins has only played in 3 games this year, and though he has yet to find the end zone, he is averaging a respectable 60 yards per game and 17.9 yards per catch. Roddy White is listed as questionable, but is expected to play Thursday night against the Baltimore Ravens. In turn, White will command a lot of attention from the Ravens’ secondary, leaving Jenkins to find the openings as the WR2. The Falcons might turn to the passing game if Michael Turner can’t get it done against the Ravens run defense.
Week 10 Projection: 65 yards, 1TD
Leave me a comment and let me know if this is helpful. I like the feedback. Thank you.
Week 10: On Your Mark, Get Set, Start Em’
By Brian McGee
Everyone has bye week players or players who are nursing an injury. It is those who make the correct fill-ins that stay in the championship race. If you don’t already have Josh Freeman or Ryan Fitzpatrick, look to these QB’s:
QB: David Garrard (Jax) – Garrard is coming off of his best game of the year: 17-21, 260 yards and 4 td’s. He also ran the ball for an additional score. He will be going up against the 32nd ranked passing defense in the NFL, as the Houston Texans give up an average of 298 passing yards per game. Tony Romo, posted 284 yards, Bruce Gradkowski put up 278 yards and Eli Manning reached 297 yards, all in consecutive games against the Texans’ porous secondary. Garrard is a solid fill in for your line up.
Week 10 Projection: 260 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 int
QB: Matt Cassel (KC) – Cassel will playing a decent pass defense in the Denver Broncos, but the Broncos are the 31st ranked run defense. This will allow the Kansas City running backs to do all the work for Cassel. His yards won’t be high, by any means, but he will get scoring chances deep inside the red zone. It will be similar to what happened in Oakland last week. Expect a solid day for Cassel, as he will rely on his backfield to open up opportunities for him.
Week 10 Projection: 210 yards, 2 touchdowns, 20 rushing yards
Week 9: Game of the Week – Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders
By Brian McGee
It has been many years since the Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders have been in contention for the AFC West championship. Yes, the season is only half way done, and San Diego is known for their aggressive second half performances, but if you are a West Coast guy, like myself, this game is a must see. Word on the street is that the game in Oakland will finally sell out, putting an end to local TV blackouts for Raiders’ home games. This marks the 103rd game between the two teams, dating back to the AFL days. The Chiefs hold a slight edge in regular season match-ups (54-46-2), and have beaten the Raiders 2-1 in the post season.
The latest installment in this storied rivalry will feature one thing: running. Sunday’s match-up presents two of the premiere rushing tandems in the NFL today: Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones for the Chiefs, and Darren McFadden and Michael Bush for the Raiders. These two groups of runners represent the growing trend in the NFL: Why have one great back when you can have two? The Chiefs’ duo has rushed for 1,204 yards this season, with a combined average of 5.4 yards per carry. Jamaal Charles leads all NFL backs (with a minimum of 100 carries) at a 6.5 yards per carry average. The Raiders’ pack have rushed for 975 yards, for an average of 4.8 yards per carry, Darren McFadden leading the way with a solid 5.5 yards per attempt.
With a forecast of breezy, low-60′s and a 40-percent chance of rain at McAfee Coliseum, you can expect a heavy dose of these two-man assault groups. Even though Jason Campbell received the Fed-Ex player of the week award for his 310 yard, 2 touchdown performance last week in the victory over Seattle, it doesn’t mean the Raiders will abandon their most valuable offensive trait. Because of the impact it will have in the AFC West (and with me), I, personally, along with my Fantasy Sports Shack colleague, Josh, will be attending this game, rain or shine, to watch as two rejuvenated teams show the whole football world they are not be mocked anymore. Ye who enters the Black Hole will be forever a changed man.
Game Predictions:
Raiders 27, Chiefs 24
McFadden – 110 yards, 1 td Bush – 55 yards, 1 td
Jones – 80 yards, 1 td Charles – 90 yards, 1 td
Sleepers of the Week: Week 12
Posted: November 25, 2009
I’ll take another round turkey, a heaping pile of mashed potatoes and a mound of stuffing. I’ll go for seconds, maybe thirds, on yams and cranberry. I’ll make room for a slice of pie or three, and then it’s on to dessert and a plate full of Sleepers for Week 12:
QUARTERBACK
Alex Smith (San Francisco) vs. Jacksonville – Projection: 21-35, 220 yards, 2 TD
Smith didn’t look great on Sunday against Green Bay, but still threw for 227 yards and 3 TD. Jacksonville ranks 25th versus the pass, so another solid performance is a high probability.
Vince Young (Tennessee) vs. Arizona – Projection: 13-21, 155 yards, 1 TD, 5-35 rushing
Young is not an exciting fantasy option, but it’s surprising how little it takes to get double-digit fantasy points from the guy. With just 116 passing yards in Week 11, Young was still good for 14 fantasy points thanks to 73 rushing yards and a passing TD.
RUNNING BACK
Justin Forsett (Seattle) @ St. Louis – Projection: 13-71 rushing, 5-31 receiving, 1 TD
Even if Julius Jones returns from his bruised lung, Forsett has more than proven his worth in Seattle, and will get his touches. The Rams are 28th in the league against the run, so this will probably be the last week Forsett qualifies as a “Sleeper”.
Jamaal Charles (Kansas City) @ San Diego – Projection: 14-65 rushing, 3-11 receiving, 1 TD
Against a tough Pittsburgh D, Charles still found a way to be a viable fantasy option by catching a 2-yard touchdown pass from Matt Cassel and returning a kickoff for 6. San Diego is 21st against the run, so Charles could have another solid day.
Danny Ware (New York Giants) @ Denver – Projection: 9-51 rushing, 3-24 receiving
When the Giants travel to Denver for a Thanksgiving night showdown with the Broncos, Ahmad Bradshaw (ankle) will not make the trip. With Brandon Jacobs (leg) a bit hobbled, the door could swing open for the Giants’ number three back.
WIDE RECEIVER
Antonio Bryant (Tampa Bay) @ Atlanta – Projection: 5-67 receiving, 1 TD
Bryant had 1248 yards and 7 TD just one season ago. After battling injuries for much of this year, he’s healthy and could start to build a rapport with Tampa Bay rookie gunslinger, Josh Freeman. It doesn’t hurt that Atlanta is 29th against the pass.
Earl Bennett (Chicago) @ Minnesota – Projection: 7-84 receiving
Over the past 3 weeks, Chicago’s leading ypc receiver (12.8) has a modest 15 grabs for 177 yards. Not exactly a trend that would suggest a big game versus Minnesota, but here we go again, putting up the bucks for a guy who always fails to deliver a TD. This could be the week…
Pierre Garcon (Indianapolis) @ Houston – Projection: 5-72 receiving
Over the past 3 weeks, Garcon is tied with Roddy White for 13th in the NFL in WR targets (28). Over that span, he has 14 catches, 218 yards and 1 TD, including 108 yards last week. By the way, he has Peyton Manning throwing him the ball.
TIGHT END
Jermichael Finley (Green Bay) @ Detroit – Projection: 4-39 receiving, 1 TD
How can I not go with Finley (again)? He’s owned in less than 20% of fantasy leagues, yet, per game, is outperforming Jason Witten, Jeremy Shockey and John Carlson, all of whom are owned in more than 75% of leagues! Plus, here comes Detroit.
KICKER
Dan Carpenter (Miami) @ Buffalo – Projection: 2 FG, 2 PAT (1 FG 40+)
It’s time to see if Carpenter can be a cold weather kicker. Safe bet, the Montana alum will be fine, and the Dolphins will get him into range at least twice against the Bills. Carpenter has scored 74 (real life) points thus far in 2009, and has a big leg.
DEFENSE
Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay – Projection: 17 points allowed, 2 sacks, 1 Int, 1 fumble recovery
The Buccaneers have shown flashes of ability on offense, and there could be some again on Sunday. That said, Atlanta is averaging 2 sacks and nearly 2 takeaways per game, and Tampa will really be no match at home.
NFL Quick Hitters: September 7, 2009
-
- Still Hurting
-
- Bell & Bush = More Week 1 Work
-
- Atop the Depth Chart
-
- Unsuspended. Still Unhappy.
-
- The Rivalry Grows
Posted: September 7, 2009
- Pierre Thomas looks unlikely to be ready for week one against Detroit. Mike Bell is the handcuff, but Thomas’ receptions go to Reggie Bush. Look for Bell to be around 15 carries. Bell’s Projection: 65 yards, 1 TD
- Mike Tomlin gives Willie Parker a vote of confidence. “He’s our runner.” No more Albert Haynesworth in Tennessee, and Fast Willie gets 20+ carries in week 1. Parker’s Projection: 90 yards rushing, 30 yards receiving, 1 TD
- Matthew Stafford named Lions starting quarterback. He’s got some weapons, but the learning curve is steep. New Orleans is a decent first match-up, so early results could be okay. Stafford’s Projection: 210 yards, 2 TD, 2 Int
- Eric Mangini is keeping his lips sealed on the Browns’ starting QB. 60/40 it’s Brady Quinn. Don’t count on either starter against a stout Minnesota D week 1. Cleveland’s QB Projection: 190 yards, 1 TD, 1 Int
- Cadillac Williams atop Tampa Bay’s depth chart, but the three headed “monster” — if it can be called that– that is the Bucs’ running game is not worth taking a risk on. Cadillac’s Projection: 13 carries, 44 yards, 0 TD
- Brandon Marshall is no longer suspended in Denver. Trade rumors still fly. Will he play week 1? Most likely. How much? Probably a lot. Will he be a distraction. Certainly. Marshall’s Projection: 5 receptions, 88 yards, 1 TD
- Matt Cassel participates in practice. His status for week 1 is unknown. If he plays, the tough Baltimore D, among other issues, is sure to give him fits. Cassel’s Projection: 180 yards, 1 TD, 2 Int
- Redskins sign recently-cut-Giant QB Andre Woodson to their practice squad (to help steal plays and audibles). Bill Belichick quoted as saying, “Well, that’s one way to do it.” Ease up, Pats’ fans, it’s a joke. Fantasy Impact: None. Giants have a week to adjust, and will win game one against Washington.
Thanks go to Rotoworld.com, NFL.com, ESPN.com and Yahoo! Fantasy Sports for the info.
Welcome to the Shack!
Fantasy Sports Shack is a place for stats, opinions, information and links to the important stuff that will help you win a fantasy title, with a focus on football and baseball.
We want to know what a player has done for the last few years, their trends and projections for this year. We want to know sleepers who are going to make a difference, rookies who will shine and veterans who will bounce back. We want to know about the impact of the latest injuries, retirements and… well, legal issues. We want to know it before the next guy (or girl – the Shack doesn’t discriminate!), and we want to share it with you!
We’re just a group of fans who love fantasy sports. Some of us are new to the game, others have been playing for more than 15 years, on a number of platforms, with a variety of people. And not to boast, but we do okay. We’ve got the 4-time king (including a 3-peat) of an uber-competitive baseball league, a 2-time defending fantasy football champion and a top 3 fantasy football finisher for 6 years running. Just want to let you know we’re not yanking your chain when we offer our opinion. And that’s what we’re here to do, give you our opinion.
Opinion is what the Fantasy Sports Shack is all about. We’ll give you ours, so don’t be afraid to give us yours.
