NFL Playoffs 2011 – AFC Divisional Round Matchups
By Brian McGee
The Wild Card weekend is done, and, to no surprise, the Ravens made it through. The Jets found a way to get past Peyton Manning and the Colts, and thus, I was 1 for 2 last week with my AFC predictions. Let’s see if I can improve on that this week.
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
When worlds collide, this is what it must feel like. These two powerhouse defenses are known for wanting to mame and decapitate each other, and have had some success in doing both. They split their regular season meetings, with both games decided by a field goal, even with Pittsburgh starting 13-year pro and perennial back-up Charlie Batch in the Week 4 meeting (won by the Ravens). When Ben Roethlisberger was behind center, the Steelers won, but Big Ben suffered a broken nose in the process; a little reminder from the Ravens that they don’t like to lose. This game will be just like the previous matches. The defenses will keep the score low because neither give up a lot of touchdowns, and the game should be decided by which QB can take their respective team down the field in the 4th quarter. The Steelers defense has been able to keep them in games and give Big Ben a chance to make a game-winning drive. Joe Flacco looked precise and under control for the Ravens in last week’s route of the Kansas City Chiefs. You can’t take much away from that game offensively because of the turnovers, but Flacco looked more poised than last year, and that is a big thing. Going into Heinz field and trying to win in the playoffs is a very difficult task, but I think the Ravens are up to it. Ray Rice is now more involved in the gameplan, and the Ravens have many receiving targets for Flacco. Troy Polamalu can’t cover them all. Of course, this will be a grind out kind of game, but at the end, the drive that will matter will be in the hands of the Ravens offense, and they will get it done.
Ravens win 20-17
New York Jets @ New England Patriots
Apparently Rex Ryan is confused. He believes this game is only about him against Bill Belichick. He has forgotten the beat-down his team received the last time these two met. His focus should be on getting his team past this round of the playoffs and into the AFC Championship game. Making it personal may take some of the pressure off of his team, but it shouldn’t be needed at this juncture of the season. Your team is either mentally and physically prepared by now or they aren’t. If the Jets are not ready, then that blame is rested squarely on Ryan’s shoulders. After last week’s last second field goal by Nick Folk, the Jets made it past the Indianapolis Colts, but if they expect to contend with the Patriots, they will need a much better game out of their QB. Mark Sanchez was 18 for 31 against the Colts for 189 yards and 1 interception. That won’t cut it against Brady and Company. The Jets needed poor coaching from the Indianapolis sideline to narrowly escape Wild-Card Weekend. Belichick won’t give the Jets as many opportunities. He will have a phenomenal game plan, as usual, and Brady will execute it with precision. With BenJarvus Green-Ellis becoming a consistent running back and the dual threat of Danny Woodhead, the Patriots are a more balanced and higher caliber team.
Patriots win 27-17
2009 Season Wrap-Up
Posted: January 16, 2010
The 2009 fantasy football season kicked off with only one certainty: Adrian Peterson would be the top pick in most drafts. However, looking back on the year that was, were we all to journey back to the summer and redraft our teams, some things would have gone differently.
As I mentioned in the Bruno Boys’ season recap edition of Fasulo’s Forecaster, Chris Johnson, the consensus hypothetical redraft number one pick, ran away, literally, with fantasy MVP honors (2,006 rushing yards, 503 receiving yards, 16 touchdowns). Ray Rice, in this writer’s opinion, was a solid second (2,041 yards from scrimmage, 8 touchdowns), and Aaron Rodgers was third. Rodgers’ 4,434 yards, 30 touchdowns (to only 7 interceptions), 316 rushing yards and 5 rushing scores were nothing to scoff at, but Johnson outscored Rodgers in standard scoring leagues, and Rice’s draft value was superior to that of the All-Pro QB — chances are, Rice was a mid-round pick in your league.
All-in-all, 2009 was one hell of a season. A couple old dogs (30+ year-old running backs) proved age to be just a number, as Ricky Williams ran for over 1,100 yards at age 32 and Thomas Jones topped 1,400 at 31. Both had double digit touchdowns, 11 and 14, respectively. A couple more old dogs proved the adage that once a running back hits 30, the end comes quickly. Despite 12 rushing touchdowns, 30 year-old LaDainian Tomlinson managed only 730 yards on the ground, with a career low average of 3.3 yard-per-carry. 30 year-old Brian Westbrook lost most of the season to concussions, but in eight games, totaled just 455 yards and 2 scores. The Philadelphia Eagles have a 2010 in-house replacement for Westbrook in rookie running back LeSean McCoy (637 rushing yards, 308 receiving yards, 4 TD), but chances are, the San Diego Chargers will look elsewhere for tailback help, as Darren Sproles, though he totaled more than 800 yards and scored 8 touchdowns in 2009, is likely not an every-down back.
Aside from Rice, Williams and Jones, there were a few more running back surprises in 2009… for the worse. Matt Forte, a top ten draft pick, finished the season with 929 rushing yards, 471 receiving yards and 4 scores, a respectable line for a mid-round draft pick, a horrific line for a RB1 who is supposed to carry your fantasy team. Steve Slaton, a first/second round pick, caused even more fantasy damage, as his fumble-itus found him on the real world bench, and though he got back into the mix toward the end of the year before suffering an injury, his final stat-line left much to be desired: 437 rushing yards, 417 receiving yards, 7 TD.
While some players were disappointing this year, others were exceptional. Dallas Cowboys‘ wide receiver Miles Austin broke out in Week 6 to the tune of 250 yards and 2 touchdowns, and he never looked back, finishing the season with 1,320 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. His fantasy total was third best among receivers, behind only Houston Texans‘ star Andre Johnson (1,569 yards, 9 TD) and New England Patriots‘ All-Pro Randy Moss (1.264 yards, 13 TD). In San Francisco, tight end Vernon Davis catapulted his career to new levels, leading all NFL tight ends in touchdowns (13) and leading his team in receiving yards (965). Across the country in New York, the Steve Smith who began the season known as “the other Steve Smith” made a name for himself by setting the Giants‘ single-season record for receptions (107) and amassing 1,220 receiving yards and 7 scores. (Side note: Though they both finished with 7 touchdowns, the Giants’ Steve Smith out-gained Carolina Panthers’ Steve Smith by 238 receiving yards.) In Minnesota, Brett Favre revitalized his career again, and the career of third-year wideout Sidney Rice took off. Rice, left undrafted in some leagues, finished the season with 1,312 receiving yards and 8 scores.
All across the board, 2009 was another great season in fantasy football land. Here is a look at the Fantasy Sports Shack accolades (lists) for the 2009 fantasy football season, and the top 30 Keepers for 2010:
MVP
| Player | Position | Team | Stats | |
| 1 | Chris Johnson | RB | Titans | 2,006 rush yds, 503 rec yds, 16 TD, 3 fum |
| 2 | Ray Rice | RB | Ravens | 1,339 rush yds, 702 rec yds, 8 TD, 3 fum |
| 3 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | Packers | 4,434 pass yds, 30 TD, 7 INT, 316 rush yds, 5 rush TD, 4 fum |
| 4 | Drew Brees | QB | Saints | 4,388 pass yds, 34 TD, 11 INT, 33 rush yds, 2 rush TD, 6 fum |
| 5 | Peyton Manning | QB | Colts | 4,500 pass yds, 33 TD, 16 INT |
| 6 | Maurice Jones-Drew | RB | Jaguars | 1,391 rush yds, 374 rec yds, 16 TD, 1 fum |
| 7 | Adrian Peterson | RB | Vikings | 1,383 rush yds, 436 rec yds, 18 TD, 6 fum |
| 8 | Thomas Jones | RB | Jets | 1,402 rush yds, 58 rec yds, 14 TD |
| 9 | Andre Johnson | WR | Texans | 1,569 rec yds, 9 TD, 10 rush yds |
| 10 | Miles Austin | WR | Cowboys | 1,320 rec yds, 11 TD |
TOP ROOKIE
| Player | Position | Team | Stats | |
| 1 | Knowshon Moreno | RB | Broncos | 947 rush yds, 213 rec yds, 9 TD, 4 fum |
| 2 | Percy Harvin | WR | Vikings | 790 rec yds, 135 rush yds, 8 TD |
| 3 | Beanie Wells | RB | Cardinals | 793 rush yds, 143 rec yds, 7 TD, 2 fum |
| 4 | Hakeem Nicks | WR | Giants | 790 rec yds, 8 rush yds, 6 TD |
| 5 | LeSean McCoy | RB | Eagles | 637 rush yds, 308 rec yds, 4 TD, 1 fum |
| 6 | Mike Wallace | WR | Steelers | 756 rec yds, 48 rush yds, 6 TD, 1 fum |
| 7 | Austin Collie | WR | Colts | 676 rec yds, 7 TD |
| 8 | Jeremy Maclin | WR | Eagles | 762 rec yds, 4 TD |
| 9 | Kenny Britt | WR | Titans | 701 rec yds, 3 TD, 1 fum |
| 10 | Michael Crabtree | WR | 49ers | 625 rec yds, 2 TD, 1 fum |
TOP KEEPERS FOR 2010
| Player | Position | Team | Reason | |
| 1 | Chris Johnson | RB | Titans | As if 2,500 yards and 16 TD wasn’t enough, he’s only 24. |
| 2 | Adrian Peterson | RB | Vikings | He’ll only be 25 in 2010, and has lots of miles left on those tires. |
| 3 | Maurice Jones-Drew | RB | Jaguars | First year as full-time RB1 a success, look for him to do more of the same in 2010 and beyond. |
| 4 | Ray Rice | RB | Ravens | 2009′s FSS MVP runner-up has proven he’s for real. |
| 5 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | Packers | 2009′s top fantasy QB just turned 26 years-old. |
| 6 | Andre Johnson | WR | Texans | The 28 year-old All-Pro is at the top of his game for a team on the rise. |
| 7 | Drew Brees | QB | Saints | The leader of the league’s most prolific offense has a few good sesaons left in his arm. |
| 8 | Frank Gore | RB | 49ers | This may seem like a high ranking, but he’s the centerpiece of a blossoming offense. |
| 9 | Larry Fitzgerald | WR | Cardinals | 13 touchdowns in 2009 for arguably the best receiver in football. |
| 10 | DeSean Jackson | WR | Eagles | The guy just makes huge plays, and he’s still getting better. |
| 11 | Steven Jackson | RB | Rams | At 26, he is the best player on one of the worst teams in football, and he still managed 1,416 rush yards. |
| 12 | Jamaal Charles | RB | Chiefs | A stretch? Maybe. But in the second half of ’09, the only RB better was Chris Johnson. |
| 13 | Peyton Manning | QB | Colts | He’ll be 34 next season, but his style of play dictates success for years to come. |
| 14 | Beanie Wells | RB | Cardinals | Likely locked in a timeshare again in 2010, but this time, he’s the man. |
| 15 | Jonathan Stewart | RB | Panthers | Like Wells, Stewart shares time, but coming into his third year, he’s set to take on a bigger load. |
| 16 | Vernon Davis | TE | 49ers | Apologies to Clark, Gates and Gonzalez, but Davis is just entering his prime and could potentially put up WR1 numbers. |
| 17 | Philip Rivers | QB | Chargers | Uncertainty at RB, Rivers may have to throw more in 2010. |
| 18 | Miles Austin | WR | Cowboys | Can he do it again in 2010? It’s worth a gamble. |
| 19 | Knowshon Moreno | RB | Broncos | Likely to take on a bigger workload from here on. |
| 20 | Percy Harvin | WR | Vikings | Again, might seem like a stretch, but this guy is lightning in a bottle. |
| 21 | Vincent Jackson | WR | Chargers | Disappeared for a bit down the stretch, but still one of the top young receivers in the game. |
| 22 | Rashard Mendenhall | RB | Steelers | He’s taken over as the RB1, and year three should prove fruitful. |
| 23 | Matt Forte | RB | Bears | A sophomore slump can be blamed on his team’s lack of receivers. Look for a rebound in 2010. |
| 24 | Brandon Marshall | WR | Broncos | His talent is undeniable, but his attitude sometimes holds him back. |
| 25 | Roddy White | WR | Falcons | Matt Ryan will be ready to go in 2010, and White will reap the benefits. |
| 26 | Greg Jennings | WR | Packers | Donald Driver isn’t getting any younger, and despite a “down” 2009, Jennings is just hitting his stride. |
| 27 | Matt Schaub | QB | Texans | It feels like his fantasy owners dodged a bullet with an injury-free ’09, but his potential is worth the risk. |
| 28 | Reggie Wayne | WR | Colts | Next year, Pierre Garcon’s name could be here instead, but for now, Wayne is still the man in Indy. |
| 29 | Calvin Johnson | WR | Lions | As he builds a rapport with Stafford, the numbers are sure to go way up. |
| 30 | Shonn Greene | RB | Jets | Greene has shown flashes, and will be ready to step in when Jones’ tires inevitably go flat. |
Thank you, my faithful followers, for a great 2009. Keep your eyes out for the Fantasy Sports Shack’s baseball coverage, which will start in the near future, and come back next August for more Fantasy Sports Shack football coverage! (Though, I’m sure there will be a few topics for discussion between now and then.)
Sleepers of the Week: Week 7
Posted: October 23, 2009
Time to make up for a dismal Week 6. This week, some lesser-owned diamonds in the rough will be viable bye week fill-ins, and a few should even be rostered permanently, as some former graduates from this column have been (Mike Sims-Walker, Rashard Mendenhall, Steve Smith (NYG), etc.). Here are the Sleepers for Week 7:
QUARTERBACK
Chad Henne vs. New Orleans – Projection: 16-24, 220 yards, 2 TD, 1 Int
In Week 5, Henne threw for 241 yards and 2 TD’s against the 8th ranked Jets’ pass defense, and he’s had 2 weeks to prepare for a New Orleans D that leads the league with 11 interceptions but can be susceptible to the pass (Kevin Kolb, 391 yards Wk. 2).
Shaun Hill @ Houston – Projection: 17-27, 210 yards, 1 TD
Don’t expect massive numbers, but for a bye week QB, you could do worse, especially seeing as though Frank Gore is back and Michael Crabtree is about to add a new weapon to the offense. And, oh yeah, the Texans only rank 19th against the pass.
RUNNING BACK
Michael Bush vs. New York Jets – Projection: 12-46 rushing, 1-8 receiving, 1 TD
In McFadden’s absence, Bush hasn’t been the go-to-guy, as anticipated. Justin Fargas had 23 carries last week, but much of it was due to the fact Bush got banged up. The Jets are 21st against the run, and Bush has a decent chance to get in for 6.
Mike Bell @ Miami – Projection: 9-33 rushing, 1 TD
Bell had 15 carries in Week 6, but most of it was mop-up duty when the Saints had the game in the bag. Pierre Thomas is the #1 back, but Bell is the goal-line sniper. Another score is likely, despite the Dolphins‘ stout run defense (3rd in NFL).
Kevin Faulk @ Tampa Bay (In London) – Projection: 5-24 rushing, 4-41 receiving
This week, Laurence Maroney and BenJarvus Green-Ellis are 1-2 in the RB pecking order. Faulk’s role will expand slightly, and though he probably won’t explode, if desperate, he is a fair flex option play against the second worst run defense in football.
WIDE RECEIVER
Lance Moore @ Miami – Projection: 5-59, 1 TD
Moore hauled in 79 passes in 2008, and last week, finally worked his way back into the offense. He had 6 catches for 78 yards and a TD, and was targeted 7 times by Drew Brees. The Saints will keep on throwing, and Moore is a safe bet for a decent day.
Mike Wallace vs. Minnesota – Projection: 3-55, 1 TD
Wallace has caught a mere 2 balls in each of his last 3 games, averaging about 50 yards per game. He has the ability to break out (7 catches, 102 yards against Cincinatti Wk. 3), and Minnesota‘s defense has the tendency to give up big yards in the air.
Mohamed Massoquoi vs. Green Bay – Projection: 6-91
Over the past 3 weeks, the unheralded rookie has averaged 9.67 targets, 4.67 receptions and 82 yards per game. Green Bay is sure to jump out to a big lead, meaning Cleveland will be forced to throw. This could be the week Massoquoi finds paydirt.
TIGHT END
Zach Miller vs. New York Jets – Projection: 5-71, 1 TD
Miller was targeted 11 times last week, and has 13 catches for 241 yards and a TD over the last 3 weeks. The Jets‘ D is solid, and the Raiders‘ O is not. Still, Miller seems poised to become the most consistent offensive player on his team.
KICKER
Joe Nedney @ Houston – Projection: 3 FG, 2 PAT (1 FG 50+)
Facing the 20th ranked overall defense, the 49ers offense should give their strong-legged kicker ample opportunities in the controlled climate in Houston.
DEFENSE
Carolina Panthers vs. Buffalo – Projection: 17 points allowed, 3 sacks, 1 Int, 1 fumble recovery
This is a bipolar defense (2nd against the pass, 29th against the rush), and though the Bills should run the ball a bunch, their overall lack of a passing game — especially with Ryan Fitzpatrick in there — will allow Carolina to stack the box.
Week 4 Sleeper Results: Mendenhall Monster
Posted October 5, 2009
It was a solid week in Sleeperland. Rashard Mendenhall ran all over San Diego, Derek Anderson lived up to the bold prediction and where projections fell short, most often it wasn’t by much. Here are the Sleeper Results for Week 4:
QUARTERBACK (2 for 2)
Derek Anderson – Got the Browns going, but couldn’t manage to pull out a W.
Projected: 20-33, 230 yards, 2 TD, 1 Int
Actual: 26-48, 269 yards, 1 passing TD, 1 rushing TD, 1 Int
Shaun Hill – Didn’t quite get the yards, but didn’t throw a pick, so it all evens out in the wash.
Projected: 17-27, 215 yards, 2 TD, 1 Int
Actual: 14-24, 152 yards, 2 TD
RUNNING BACK (1 for 3)
Glen Coffee – Put up respectable numbers, but not as big as projected. A TD would have changed that tune.
Projected: 24-107 rushing, 2-14 receiving, 1 TD
Actual: 24-74 rushing, 4-32 receiving, 0 TD
Michael Bush – Ugh. Forget it.
Projected: 12-65 rushing, 2-12 receiving, 1 TD
Actual: 3-10 rushing, 1-4 receiving, 1 fumble lost
Rashard Mendenhall – The explosion should count for a 2-fer. It doesn’t, though.
Projected: 13-59 rushing, 1 TD
Actual: 29-165 rushing, 2-26 receiving, 2 TD
WIDE RECEIVER (1 for 2, 1 push)
Mike Sims-Walker – Quickly becoming a #1 NFL receiver, and borderline #1 in fantasy land.
Projected: 6-87, 1 TD
Actual: 7-91, 2 TD
Earl Bennett – I knocked Knox, but he out-caught my pick 5-2 and returned a kick for 6. Bennett clipped him in yards.
Projected: 5-70, 1 TD
Actual: 2-32, 0 TD
Josh Morgan – Had he not dropped a perfect deep ball, he could have had nearly 100 yards and 2 scores. Push.
Projected: 5-67, 1 TD
Actual: 2-39, 1 TD
TIGHT END (o for 1)
Kevin Boss – Had the catches and yards nearly right, but no score takes away most of the value.
Projected: 4-48, 1 TD
Actual: 4-41, 0 TD
KICKER (0 for 1)
Steve Hauschka – Didn’t even attempt a FG.
Projected: 3-3 FG, 2 PAT (1 FG 40+)
Actual: 3 PAT
DEFENSE (1 for 1)
Indianapolis – Solid performance, as predicted.
Projected: 13 points allowed, 2 sacks, 1 Int, 1 fumble recovery
Actual: 17 points allowed, 5 sacks, 2 fumble recoveries
Scorecard for Week 4: 5 for 10, 1 push
Overall Scorecard for 2009 Season: 18 for 42, 2 pushes (43%)
*Note from Week 3 I failed to mention: Percy Harvin’s first career kick return for a TD came 1 week after my “bold prediction” that he’d do it against the Lions.
Sleepers of the Week: Week 4
Posted: October 2, 2009
Bye weeks are upon us, and now is the time of the season when sleepers become really important. Who’s still out there on the free agent market/waiver wire who could help you win week-to-week? Here are the sleepers for Week 4:
QUARTERBACK
Derek Anderson vs. Cincinnati – Projection: 20-33, 230 yards, 2 TD, 1 Int 
Bold prediction of the week: Anderson jumpstarts the Browns’ offense. Sure, he was horrible last week in limited play (19 passes, 3 picks), but he’s going against a Cinci D with just 1 interception in ’09 (granted they have 10 sacks). Don’t forget, Anderson was one of the league’s top passers just 2 seasons ago (3,787 yards, 29 TD).
Shaun Hill vs. St. Louis – Projection: 17-27, 215 yards, 2 TD, 1 Int
Thus far in ’09, the Rams’ D has given up more than 400 ypg of total offense. They have just 3 sacks and 2 interceptions through 3 weeks, and thus, Shaun Hill should have time in the pocket to find open receivers.
RUNNING BACK
Glen Coffee vs. St. Louis – Projection: 24-107 rushing, 2-14 receiving, 1 TD 
Mike Singletary has stated the gameplan will not change with Frank Gore out of the lineup for 3 weeks, and Coffee gets the carries. He’s going against a defense that has conceded nearly 150 ypg on the ground, so if he’s still out there, act now!
Michael Bush @ Houston – Projection: 12-65 rushing, 2-12 receiving, 1 TD
It’s always a gamble going with a Raider (as the team continues to try and justify their drafting of JaMarcus Russell), but the Texans surrender over 200 rushing ypg, so it shouldn’t take a genius to figure out the gameplan here: run the football.
Rashard Mendenhall vs. San Diego – Projection: 13-59 rushing, 1 TD
Willie Parker is doubtful for Sunday night, so Mendenhall and Mewelde Moore will share time. I’ll take the upside on Mendenhall, especially in goal line situations.
WIDE RECEIVER
Mike Sims-Walker vs. Tennessee – Projection: 6-87, 1 TD 
After this week, Sims-Walker will no longer be available in your league. He’s had back-to-back 6 catch games, for 106 and 81 yards, respectively. The Jags have a good matchup this week against a mediocre Titans’ pass D (giving up 274 ypg).
Earl Bennett vs. Detroit – Projection: 5-70, 1 TD
Johnny Knox is the popular Bear of the moment, but had just 1 catch last week. Yes, he had a solid Week 2, but take away his 68 yard catch in Week 1, and you can cut his ownership in half. Bennett is the starter, and, by the way, he had 80 yards last week.
Josh Morgan vs. St. Louis – Projection: 5-67 yards, 1 TD
Vernon Davis has become Hill’s favorite target, and Isaac Bruce went for 81 and a score last year against his former team, but the matchup dictates that this could be the week Morgan, one of fantasy football’s trendiest preseason sleepers, finally breaks out.
TIGHT END
Kevin Boss @ Kansas City – Projection: 4-48, 1 TD
Not counting Week 2 against the hapless Raiders, tight ends have averaged 6.5-89, 1 TD against the Chiefs in ’09. When the Giants pass, Eli Manning will first look to Steve Smith and Mario Manningham, but Boss should play a bigger role on Sunday.
KICKER
Steve Hauschka @ New England – Projection: 3-3 FG, 2 PAT (1 FG 40+)
I try to avoid picking the same player two weeks in a row, but Hauschka is still a free agent in 80% of fantasy leagues, and thus deserves another sleeper nod. The Patriots are a bend-but-don’t-break defense, but the Ravens average 34 ppg.
DEFENSE
Indianapolis vs. Seattle – Projection: 13 points allowed, 2 Sacks, 1 Int, 1 fumble recovery
This one has the makings of a low scoring affair, as neither the Colts nor Seahawks are scoring a lot or allowing many points. Without Hasselbeck, the Seahawks are a different team; they are not a team to strike fear into the hearts of their opponents.
Willie Parker Disappoints
Posted: September 11, 2009
“Our runner” disappoints in season opener.
After Mike Tomlin gave Willie Parker a vote of confidence going into the season, Parker managed a dismal line: 13 carries, 19 yards, 1 reception 5 yards. Not at all what most people expected, and a far cry from my prediction earlier in the week.
What does this prove on the fantasy side of the ball? 1) Parker’s injuries and age are catching up with him, 2) Rashard Mendenhall and Mewelde Moore — neither of whom were impressive Thursday — will see significant touches, and 3) The Tennessee defense is still one of the top run stuffing units in football, despite the loss of All-Pro tackle Albert Haynesworth.
Just the Stats: 2009 Running Back Projections
Posted: September 5, 2009
The “Overall” Running Back fantasy score is determined for leagues using the following scoring system: 10 rushing yards = 1 point, TD run = 6 points, 100+ yard rushing game = 6 points, 10 receiving yards = 1 point, TD reception = 6 points, Fumble = -2 points.
| PLAYER | Age | O-Ln | Bye | Week 14-15-16 | Ru Yd |
Avg | Ru TD |
100+ | Rc Yd |
Rc TD |
Fm | OVERALL |
| Adrian Peterson (Min) | 24 | Plus | 9 | Cin, @Car, @Chi | 1,550 | 5.2 | 15 | 8 | 150 | 0 | 4 | 300 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 24 | Even | 7 | Mia, Ind, @NE | 1,250 | 4.5 | 14 | 4 | 500 | 2 | 3 | 289 |
| Matt Forte | 23 | Plus | 5 | GB, @Bal, Min | 1,250 | 4.0 | 9 | 3 | 450 | 3 | 1 | 258 |
| Michael Turner | 27 | Plus | 4 | NO, @NYJ, Buf | 1,400 | 4.4 | 14 | 5 | 40 | 0 | 2 | 254 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 30 | Even | 5 | @Dal, Cin, @Ten | 1,150 | 3.8 | 12 | 3 | 400 | 1 | 0 | 251 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 26 | Plus | 4 | @NE, Min, @NYG | 1,250 | 5.1 | 12 | 4 | 175 | 1 | 0 | 245 |
| Steve Slaton | 23 | Plus | 10 | Sea, @StL, @Mia | 1,200 | 4.5 | 9 | 5 | 375 | 1 | 2 | 244 |
| Steven Jackson | 26 | Minus | 9 | @Ten, Hou, @Ari | 1,150 | 4.1 | 8 | 4 | 350 | 1 | 3 | 222 |
| Chris Johnson (Ten) | 23 | Plus | 7 | StL, Mia, SD | 1,200 | 4.6 | 8 | 4 | 250 | 1 | 1 | 221 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 22 | Plus | 7 | @Ind, Oak, @Phi | 1,100 | 4.4 | 8 | 4 | 300 | 2 | 2 | 220 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 27 | Plus | 10 | Phi, @Was, Car | 1,050 | 5.0 | 14 | 4 | 50 | 0 | 2 | 214 |
| Darren McFadden | 22 | Minus | 9 | Was,@Den,@Cle | 1,050 | 4.4 | 7 | 3 | 400 | 2 | 2 | 213 |
| Clinton Portis | 27 | Minus | 8 | @Oak, NYG, Dal | 1,250 | 4.1 | 8 | 4 | 200 | 0 | 4 | 209 |
| Frank Gore | 26 | Minus | 6 | Ari, @Phi, Det | 1,100 | 4.3 | 6 | 3 | 425 | 1 | 3 | 207 |
| Pierre Thomas | 24 | Plus | 5 | @Atl, Dal, TB | 900 | 4.8 | 9 | 2 | 350 | 3 | 1 | 207 |
| Brian Westbrook | 29 | Plus | 4 | @NYG, SF, Den | 900 | 4.2 | 7 | 3 | 400 | 3 | 1 | 206 |
| Marion Barber | 26 | Plus | 6 | SD, @NO, @Was | 900 | 4.3 | 8 | 3 | 325 | 2 | 2 | 197 |
| Kevin Smith | 22 | Minus | 7 | @Bal, Ari, @SF | 1,000 | 4.0 | 8 | 2 | 275 | 1 | 1 | 192 |
| Ryan Grant | 26 | Even | 5 | @Chi, @Pit, Sea | 1,150 | 4.3 | 6 | 4 | 125 | 1 | 3 | 188 |
| Beanie Wells | 21 | Minus | 4 | @SF, @Det, StL | 950 | 3.9 | 10 | 3 | 75 | 0 | 2 | 177 |
| Joseph Addai | 26 | Even | 6 | Den, @Jac, NYJ | 850 | 4.2 | 7 | 2 | 275 | 2 | 1 | 176 |
| Thomas Jones | 31 | Plus | 9 | @TB, Atl, @Ind | 1,000 | 4.0 | 6 | 3 | 175 | 1 | 1 | 176 |
| Derrick Ward | 29 | Plus | 8 | NYJ, @Sea, @NO | 950 | 5.1 | 3 | 3 | 350 | 1 | 0 | 172 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 22 | Plus | 4 | @NE, Min, @NYG | 900 | 4.5 | 11 | 2 | 50 | 0 | 1 | 171 |
| Larry Johnson | 29 | Minus | 8 | Buf, Cle, @Cin | 1,000 | 4.3 | 6 | 3 | 100 | 1 | 1 | 168 |
| Ronnie Brown | 27 | Plus | 6 | @Jac,@Ten,Hou | 850 | 4.4 | 6 | 3 | 275 | 0 | 1 | 165 |
| Donald Brown | 22 | Even | 6 | Den, @Jac, NYJ | 800 | 4.4 | 6 | 2 | 250 | 2 | 2 | 161 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 23 | Plus | 10 | Phi, @Was, Car | 800 | 5.1 | 4 | 2 | 300 | 2 | 0 | 158 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 23 | Minus | 9 | @KC, NE, @Atl | 900 | 4.1 | 6 | 2 | 200 | 0 | 1 | 156 |
| Ray Rice | 22 | Plus | 7 | Det, Chi, @Pit | 850 | 4.2 | 4 | 2 | 300 | 1 | 2 | 153 |
| Reggie Bush | 24 | Plus | 5 | @Atl, Dal, TB | 550 | 3.7 | 4 | 0 | 450 | 3 | 2 | 150 |
| Felix Jones | 22 | Plus | 6 | SD, @NO, @Was | 800 | 5.0 | 5 | 1 | 250 | 1 | 1 | 145 |
| Tim Hightower | 23 | Minus | 4 | @SF, @Det, StL | 600 | 3.5 | 5 | 1 | 350 | 2 | 0 | 143 |
| Willie Parker | 28 | Minus | 8 | @Cle, GB, Bal | 900 | 3.9 | 5 | 3 | 50 | 0 | 2 | 139 |
| LenDale White | 24 | Plus | 7 | StL, Mia, SD | 750 | 3.8 | 10 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 3 | 131 |
| Willis McGahee | 27 | Plus | 7 | Det, Chi, @Pit | 700 | 3.9 | 6 | 2 | 170 | 0 | 2 | 131 |
| Jamal Lewis | 30 | Even | 9 | Pit, @KC, Oak | 900 | 3.6 | 4 | 1 | 125 | 0 | 1 | 131 |
| Julius Jones | 28 | Minus | 7 | SF, @Hou, TB | 850 | 4.0 | 3 | 2 | 125 | 0 | 1 | 126 |
| Laurence Maroney | 24 | Plus | 8 | Car, @Buf, Jac | 700 | 3.8 | 5 | 1 | 150 | 1 | 1 | 125 |
| Fred Jackson | 28 | Minus | 9 | @KC, NE, @Atl | 650 | 4.6 | 4 | 1 | 300 | 0 | 1 | 123 |
| Cedric Benson | 26 | Minus | 8 | @Min, @SD, KC | 700 | 3.7 | 4 | 2 | 150 | 0 | 2 | 117 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 22 | Minus | 8 | @Cle, GB, Bal | 700 | 4.1 | 6 | 1 | 75 | 0 | 3 | 114 |
| LeSean McCoy | 21 | Plus | 4 | @NYG, SF, Den | 600 | 4.5 | 2 | 1 | 250 | 2 | 1 | 113 |
| Earnest Graham | 29 | Plus | 8 | NYJ, @Sea, @NO | 650 | 4.1 | 4 | 1 | 200 | 0 | 2 | 111 |
| Darren Sproles | 26 | Even | 5 | @Dal, Cin, @Ten | 500 | 5.1 | 2 | 0 | 300 | 3 | 0 | 110 |
| Chester Taylor | 29 | Plus | 9 | Cin, @Car, @Chi | 500 | 4.4 | 4 | 0 | 325 | 1 | 2 | 109 |
| Jerious Norwood | 26 | Plus | 4 | NO, @NYJ, Buf | 550 | 5.0 | 3 | 0 | 300 | 1 | 1 | 107 |
| Le’Ron McClain | 24 | Plus | 7 | Det, Chi, @Pit | 500 | 3.8 | 8 | 0 | 80 | 0 | 1 | 104 |
| Jamaal Charles | 22 | Minus | 8 | Buf, Cle, @Cin | 500 | 4.5 | 2 | 1 | 300 | 1 | 2 | 100 |
| Bernard Scott | 25 | Minus | 8 | @Min, @SD, KC | 600 | 4.1 | 3 | 1 | 100 | 0 | 1 | 92 |
| Michael Bush | 25 | Minus | 9 | Was,@Den,@Cle | 500 | 4.3 | 4 | 0 | 180 | 0 | 1 | 90 |
| James Davis | 23 | Even | 9 | Pit, @KC, Oak | 450 | 4.5 | 3 | 1 | 100 | 0 | 1 | 77 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 30 | Plus | 7 | @Ind, Oak, @Phi | 400 | 4.0 | 2 | 0 | 200 | 1 | 1 | 76 |
| Glen Coffee | 22 | Minus | 6 | Ari, @Phi, Det | 400 | 4.3 | 2 | 1 | 75 | 0 | 1 | 64 |
| Shonn Greene | 24 | Plus | 9 | @TB, Atl, @Ind | 350 | 4.2 | 4 | 0 | 50 | 0 | 1 | 62 |
| Justin Fargas | 29 | Minus | 9 | Was,@Den,@Cle | ||||||||
| Mewelde Moore | 27 | Minus | 8 | @Cle, GB, Bal | ||||||||
| Fred Taylor | 33 | Plus | 8 | Car, @Buf, Jac | ||||||||
| Tashard Choice | 24 | Plus | 6 | SD, @NO, @Was | ||||||||
| Jerome Harrison | 26 | Even | 9 | Pit, @KC, Oak | ||||||||
| Brandon Jackson | 23 | Even | 5 | @Chi, @Pit, Sea | ||||||||
| Rashad Jennings | 24 | Even | 7 | Mia, Ind, @NE | 300 | 4.2 | 2 | 0 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 47 |
| Peyton Hillis | 23 | Plus | 7 | @Ind, Oak, @Phi | ||||||||
| Cadillac Williams | 27 | Plus | 8 | NYJ, @Sea, @NO | ||||||||
Impact Rookies
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- 2008 Top Rookie
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- Top Rookie for 2009?
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- The Matt Ryan of 2009?
Posted: September 3, 2009
It’s commonly known that every year a handful of rookies explode onto the scene to become fantasy stars. Traditionally, it’s the rookie running back who climbs to the top of the rubble, but occasionally, a receiver, tight end or quarterback makes his name known.
Let’s look at last year’s success stories with an average 2009 ADP in the top 100 (per Yahoo!):
Matt Forte (Chi) RB ADP: 5.3
Chris Johnson (Ten) RB ADP: 15.3
Steve Slaton (Hou) RB ADP: 17.6
Kevin Smith (Det) RB ADP: 56
Eddie Royal (Den) WR ADP: 66.1
DeSean Jackson (Phi) WR ADP: 72.7
Matt Ryan (Atl) QB ADP: 79.4
Jonathan Stewart (Car) RB ADP: 85.3
Finding the cream of the rookie crop is the single most exciting thing in fantasy sports; even more rewarding than guessing right on a twelfth round sleeper who turns into a Pro-Bowler. Okay, maybe that’s stretching it, but the truth is, a rookie can put your team over the top and help win your league. But we wary: a rookie is an unknown commodity. Not everyone is Adrian Peterson or Matt Forte. Just ask 2008 Darren McFadden owners, or Rashard Mendenhall owners, or Felix Jones owners… You get the picture.
So which rookies are worth the risk in 2009? Here’s how they stack up:
Running Backs
- Knowshon Moreno (Den) 1,100 YD, 8 TD, 4 100+ YD Gm, 300 Rec YD, 2 Rec TD
The knee injury and resulting lack of preseason time are a concern, but Moreno is the most all-around back in the 2009 class and Denver’s clear-cut top option, if healthy.
- Beanie Wells (Ari) 950 YD, 10 TD, 3 100+ YD Gm, 75 Rec YD, 0 Rec TD
Injuries are a concern, and his lack of receiving ability is an issue, but he is a beast and is easily the best runner on the Cardinals.
- Donald Brown (Ind) 800 YD, 6 TD, 2 100+ YD Gm, 250 Rec YD, 2 Rec TD
Locked in a time-share with Joseph Addai, Brown has the skill-set to excel and potentially wind up the lead back by season’s end. Watch out if Addai gets hurt.
- LeSean McCoy (Phi) 600 YD, 2 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm, 250 Rec YD, 2 Rec TD
Brian Westbrook is the starter, but McCoy will get significant touches and be a star if Westbrook goes down.
- Bernard Scott (Cin) 600 YD, 3 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm, 100 Rec YD, 0 Rec TD
Scott has the skills and has had a decent preseason. Cedric Benson is the only thing standing between him and a chance to shine. When Benson falters, Scott is the add.
- James Davis (Cle) 450 YD, 3 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm, 100 Rec YD, 0 Rec TD
Davis has proven his potential in the preseason, and if he’s given a legit chance, ahead of Harrison, to succeed Jamal Lewis – who will, inevitably fall off a cliff – he will flourish, and could put up BIG numbers.
- Glen Coffee (SF) 400 YD, 2 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm, 75 Rec YD, 0 Rec TD
Coffee may have done his best running in the preseason, as Frank Gore is the man in San Francisco. If Gore gets dinged up, Coffee will hit the ground running.
- Shonn Greene (NYJ) 350 YD, 4 TD, 0 100+ YD Gm, 50 Rec YD, 0 Rec TD
Sit back and wait. Thomas Jones and Leon Washington are the Jets’ top options, and the preseason rib injury might linger, but Greene is a nice complement who should see an increased workload as the season progresses.
- Rashad Jennings (Jac) 300 YD, 2 TD, 0 100+ YD Gm, 50 Rec YD, 0 Rec TD
Not enough preseason work to judge by, and Maurice Jones-Drew is a top 5 fantasy option. The only way Jennings gets a serious look is if MJD blows a tire.
Wide Receivers
- Percy Harvin (Min) 850 YD, 4 TD, 2 100+ YD Gm
Inconsistent in the preseason, but the Vikings are finding ways to get him the ball.
- Hakeem Nicks (NYG) 700 YD, 5 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm
Solid preseason could vault him into more playing time, which would mean he exceeds these mild expectations.
- Jeremy Maclin (Phi) 750 YD, 3 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm
The offense is deep, but he’s too talented not to succeed. Solid preseason will translate.
- Brian Robiskie (Cle) 600 YD, 3 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm
Like his quarterbacks, he’s battling for playing time.
- Kenny Britt (Ten) 550 YD, 2 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm
While Nate Washington recovers, he’ll start opposite Justin Gage in one of the weakest passing offenses in football.
- Darrius Heyward-Bey (Oak) 500 YD, 2 TD, 1 100+ YD Gm
The Raiders will force-feed the top receiver selected in the 2009 NFL draft, and then scratch their heads and wonder why they picked him.
- Michael Crabtree (SF) Will not play.
Talk about a wasted pick. Crabtree could have been a candidate for top rookie receiver honors, but he’ll likely sit out the season. Even if he does sign, he won’t be a factor.
Quarterbacks
- Mark Sanchez (NYJ) 2,900 YD, 14 TD, 12 INT, 1 300+ YD Gm
Sanchez has been handed the keys to the Jets’ franchise, and will be given every opportunity to succeed. Expect Joe Flacco numbers, not Matt Ryan. Slight bump up if they manage to acquire Brandon Marshall.
- Matthew Stafford (Det) 2,100 YD, 9 TD, 13 INT, 1 300+ YD Gm
Uneven preseason, but if Culpepper’s odd injury thrusts April’s top pick into a starting role, he has a few weapons at his disposal. Regardless, he should be starting by midseason. Avoid him, if at all possible.
Tight Ends
- Brandon Pettigrew (Det) 350 YD, 2 TD
The best bet of the rookie tight ends to make his mark, but unlikely to make a fantasy difference in ’09.
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